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American Presidency and Political History

American religious history, american studies and history, american women's history.

American Automobile and Transportation History

Basic History Research Tools

Design and decorative arts, environmental history, food and beverage history.

Graphic Arts

History of American Education

History of Technology: Invention and Inventors

History of the Computer and the Internet

Lewis and clark expedition, medical history, military history.

Naval History

Numismatic Resources

Photography history, railroad history, united states cartography and maps.

World's Fairs and Expositions Resources

The Smithsonian Libraries and Archives' American History Research Guide is a select list of resources for students, teachers, and researchers to learn about various topics of American History.

Anacostia Community Museum
Center for Folklife and Cultural Heritage
From Smithson to Smithsonian: The Birth of an Institution : Bibliography on the History of the Smithsonian Institution
National Air and Space Museum
National Museum of African American History and Culture
National Museum of American History
National Museum of the American Indian
National Portrait Gallery
National Postal Museum

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Balch Institute for Ethnic Studies : The Balch Institute for Ethnic Studies which documents and interprets the ethnic and immigrant experience in the United States. Balch Institute for Ethnic Studies has recently merged into the Historical Society of Pennsylvania.
Bracero History Archive : The Bracero History Archive collects and makes available the oral histories and artifacts pertaining to the Bracero program, a guest worker initiative that spanned the years 1942-1964. Millions of Mexican agricultural workers crossed the border under the program to work in more than half of the states in America.
Ellis Island : The Ellis Island Immigration Museum and their online American Family Immigration History Center (AFIHC) allows visitors to explore the collection of immigrant arrival records stored in the Ellis Island Archives.
Immigrant Arrivals: A Guide To Published Sources : Library of Congress bibliography of print and web based resources.
Immigration History Research Center : The IHRC develops and maintains a library and archival collection, provides research assistance, produces publications, and sponsors academic and public programs. Its work supports the parent institution, the University of Minnesota.
Immigration to the United States, 1789-1930 : Immigration to the United States, 1789-1930, is a web-based collection of selected historical materials from Harvard's libraries, archives, and museums that documents voluntary immigration to the US from the signing of the Constitution to the onset of the Great Depression.
I mmigration: The Changing Face of America : A Library of Congress site for teachers and students.
National Archives & Records Administration Immigration Records: Immigration Records : NARA has immigration records for arrivals to the United States from foreign ports between approximately 1800 and 1959. The records are arranged by Port of Arrival.
Beyond Steel: An Archive of Lehigh Valley Industry and Culture : This Lehigh University Digital Library site highlights the Lehigh Valley's mid nineteenth-century boom, late twentieth-century decline and continuing community readjustment. Through the digitization and presentation of letters, books, photographs, maps, essays, and oral histories the site will aid researchers in understanding not only the lives of railroad barons and steel titans, but also the experiences of average folks who worked and lived in the community.
Inside an American Factory: Westinghouse Works Collection : A part of the Library of Congress American Memory Project, this collection of films, images and text. The collection contains 21 films showing various views of Westinghouse companies. Most prominently featured are the Westinghouse Air Brake Company, the Westinghouse Electric and Manufacturing Company, and the Westinghouse Machine Company.
U.S. Steel Gary Works Photograph Collection : The Indiana University Digital Library Program is produced this series of more than 2,200 photographs of the Gary Works steel mill and the corporate town of Gary, Indiana held by the Calumet Regional Archives at Indiana University Northwest.

American Music History Resources

African-American Sheet Music, 1850-1920 : The sheet music in this digital collection has been selected from the Sheet Music Collection at the John Hay Library at Brown University. The full collection consists of approximately 500,000 items, of which perhaps 250,000 are currently available for use. It is one of the largest collections of sheet music in any library in the United States.
Azúcar! The Life and Music of Celia Cruz

A bibliography of monographs and lesson plans for teachers from K to 12.

Edinburgh University Collection of Historic Musical Instruments : Features descriptions and images of many items in the collection and publication lists.
Historic American Sheet Music : The Historic American Sheet Music Project provides access to digital images of 3,042 pieces from the Rare Book, Manuscript, and Special Collections Library at Duke University, published in America between 1850 and 1920.
Historic Sheet Music, 1800-1922 : This sheet music collection from the Library of Congress consists of approximately 9,000 items published from 1800 to 1922, although the majority is from 1850 to 1920. The bulk was published in many different cities in the United States, but some of the items bear European imprints. Most of the music is written for voice and piano; a significant minority is instrumental. Notable in this collection are early pieces by Irving Berlin and Jerome Kern, as well as music by other popular composers such as Victor Herbert, Jean Schwartz, Paul Dresser, Ernest R. Ball, Gussie L. Davis, Charles K. Harris, and George M. Cohan. Numerous arrangements of classical tunes by Bach, Beethoven, Schubert and other famous classical composers are also well-represented.
Lester S. Levy Collection of Sheet Music : This collection, at the Milton S. Eisenhower Library of The Johns Hopkins University, contains over 29,000 pieces of music and focuses on popular American music spanning the period 1780 to 1960. All pieces of the collection are indexed on this site and a search will retrieve a catalog description of the pieces and an image of the cover and each page of music.
RoJaRo Index : An index to more than 300,000 entries, covering 250 music magazines from 20 countries, covering all types of contemporary popular music: rock, jazz, roots, blues, rap, soul, gospel, country, reggae, etc.

The Sheet Music Consortium : The Archive of Popular American Music is a non-circulating research collection covering the history of popular music in America from 1790 to the present. The collection is one of the largest in the country, numbering almost 450,000 pieces of sheet music, anthologies, and arrangements for band and orchestra, and 62,500 recordings on disc, tape, and cylinder. Subject strengths within twentieth-century holdings include music for theater, motion picture, radio and television, as well as general popular, country, rhythm and blues, and rocksongs.

A Century of Lawmaking for a New Nation : A Century of Lawmaking for a New Nation consists of a linked set of published Congressional records of the United States of America from the Continental Congress through the 43rd Congress, 1774-1875. A select number of documents and reports from the monumental U.S. Congressional Serial Set are available as well.
American Presidency : This online exhibition from the National Museum of American History has a bibliography under the Resources and Teacher Materials which are age and grade specific.
American Presidency Project : The American Presidency Project was established in 1999 as a collaboration between John Woolley and Gerhard Peters at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The archives contain 75,117 documents related to the study of the Presidency.
American President : This resource is sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Launched originally in 2000 as the online companion to "The American President" -- the six-part PBS television series -- American President is a resource on the history of the presidency and the nature of contemporary policy making.
Biographical Directory of the U.S. Congress : Online publication of the Biographical Directory of the U.S. Congress, published by the Senate Historical Office and the Legislative Resource Center of the House of Representatives. Includes images from the Senate Historical Office. Database is searchable by name, position, and state.
Center for the Study of the Presidency : The Center is a non-profit educational institution devoted to the study of the presidency, government, and politics.
Data.gov : The purpose of Data.gov is to increase public access to high value, machine readable datasets generated by the Executive Branch of the Federal Government. Data.gov includes searchable data catalogs providing access to data in three ways: through the "raw" data catalog, the tool catalog and the geodata catalog.
Encyclopædia Britannica's profile of the American Presidency : Read about the presidents and explore the electoral process, election results, images, video, and important documents related to the evolution of the nation's highest office.
I Do Solemnly Swear... Presidential Inaugurations : This Library of Congress collection offers approximately 400 items or 2,000 digital files from each of the 54 inaugurations from George Washington's in 1789 to George W. Bush's inauguration of 2001. This includes diaries and letters of presidents and of those who witnessed inaugurations, handwritten drafts of inaugural addresses, broadsides, inaugural tickets and programs, prints, photographs, and sheet music.
JFK Assassination Records Collection Reference System : Over 170,000 assassination-related documents. Contributing agencies include: the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); the Department of Justice; and the Department of State.
Miller Center of Public Affairs : The Scripps Library and Multimedia Archive serves as a research facility for scholars of U. S. public policy. The Library’s collection is a specialized one focused on American politics and history with special attention paid to the American Presidency.
POTUS: Presidents of the United States : This resource you will find background information, election results, cabinet members, notable events, and some points of interest on each of the presidents. Links to biographies, historical documents, audio and video files, and other presidential sites are also included.
Presidential Libraries of the National Archives & Records Administration : The Presidential Library system is made up of ten Presidential Libraries. This nationwide network of libraries is administered by the Office of Presidential Libraries, which is part of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), located in College Park, MD. These are not traditional libraries, but rather repositories for preserving and making available the papers, records, and other historical materials of U.S. Presidents since Herbert Hoover.
The Role of the Vice President : A brief history of the role of the Vice President as President of the U.S. Senate.
THOMAS - The Library of Congress : THOMAS has the Congressional Record and full text of legislation available from 1989 (101st Congress) to the present. In addition, THOMAS has summaries (not full text) of legislation from 1973 (93rd Congress). From the Library of Congress.
Voting America: United States Politics, 1840-2008 : This University of Richmond project examines the evolution of presidential politics in the United States across the span of American history. It offers a wide spectrum of cinematic and interactive visualizations of how Americans voted in presidential elections at the county level over the past 164 years. There are expert analysis and commentary videos that discuss some of the most interesting and significant trends in American political history.
Voting and Registration (U.S. Census Bureau Data) : Contains information on reported voting and registration by various demographic and socioeconomic characteristics for the United States.
White House Historical Association : The White House Historical Association is a charitable nonprofit institution whose purpose is to enhance the understanding, appreciation and enjoyment of the White House.
The White House Building : Information on the White House, including historical details.
Women in Congress : This web site, based on the book Women in Congress, 1917–2006, contains biographical profiles of former women Members of Congress, links to information about current women Members, essays on the institutional and national events that shaped successive generations of Congresswomen, and images of each woman Member, including rare photos.
American Jewish Historical Society : The American Jewish Historical Society is the oldest national ethnic historical organization in the United States. The Society’s library, archives, photograph, and art and artifacts collections document the American Jewish experience.
American Religion Data Archive : The ARDA collection includes data on churches and church membership, religious professionals, and religious groups (individuals, congregations and denominations).
Divining America: Religion and the National Culture : Divining America: Religion and the National Culture is designed to help teachers of American history bring their students to a greater understanding of the role religion has played in the development of the United States.
Journal of Southern Religion : JSR is an online journal targeted toward scholars, students, and others who are engaged in or interested in the study of Southern religion and culture.
Material History of American Religion Project : The Material History of American Religion Project studied (1995-2001) the history of American religion in all its complexity by focusing on material objects and economic themes.
North Star: A Journal of African-American Religious History : An online journal sponsored by Princeton University.
Religion and the Founding of the American Republic (Library of Congress) : Encompassing over 200 objects including early American books, manuscripts, letters, prints, paintings, artifacts, and music from the Library’s collections and complemented by loans from other institutions, Religion and the Founding of the American Republic explores the role religion played in the founding of the American colonies, in the shaping of early American life and politics, and in forming the American Republic.
Religious Movements Homepage Project at the University of Virginia : This Web site presents detailed profiles of more than two hundred different religious groups and movements in the United States.
Santos: Substance and Soul : There are nine separate reading lists on topics related to the history, culture, preservation, and identification of Santos objects.
Brooklyn Daily Eagle Online (1841-1902) : The Brooklyn Daily Eagle was published from October 26, 1841 to 1955 and was revived for a short time from 1960 to 1963. Currently, the digitized newspaper collection includes the period from October 26, 1841 to December 31, 1902, representing half of the Eagle's years of publication.
Chronicling America: Historic American Newspapers : This Library of Congress site allows you to search and read newspaper pages from 1900-1910 and find information about American newspapers published between 1690-present.
Common-Place: The Interactive Journal of Early American Life : Common-Place is an electronic quarterly journal about early American history and culture before 1900.
Documenting the American South - University of North Carolina : Documenting the American South (DocSouth) is a digital publishing initiative that provides Internet access to texts, images, and audio files related to southern history, literature, and culture. Currently DocSouth includes ten thematic collections of books, diaries, posters, artifacts, letters, oral history interviews, and songs.
Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History : The Gilder Lehrman Collection is the largest private collection of American history documents in the world. It preserves, exhibits, and disseminates archival resources chronicling the history of the United States from the beginning of European colonization, with emphasis on the period from 1760 through 1876. The collection contains resources on the history of colonial settlement, Indian relations, the American Revolution and its origins, the Constitution, the struggle over slavery, and the Civil War.
H-Net Web Site : H-Net Web Site includes archived copies of all history related listserv discussion lists and vacancy announcements for various fields in the humanities.
Making of America - Cornell University : Materials accessible here are Cornell University Library's contributions to Making of America (MOA), a digital library of primary sources in American social history from the antebellum period through reconstruction. The collection is particularly strong in the subject areas of education, psychology, American history, sociology, religion, and science and technology.
The G.I. Roundtable Series : The American Historical Association produced the G.I. Roundtable Series to help win World War II. The site is comprised of three main sections. Section I: The pamphlets, reproduced here as primary documents, provide a unique insight into what Americans were thinking about at the end of the war, and how the recent past was seen as a prelude to the future. Section II: A still-evolving selection of Background documents and related readings to provide context on the origins and production of the series and the historiography of the period. Section III: The site provides an extensive analysis of the origins of the series, and how it fit into both the Army's larger program of preparation for postwar changes as well as the larger culture in which they were produced.
Within These Walls : An annotated reading list for elementary and middle school students and an extensive bibliography for older students interested in the themes related to the Ipswich House exhibition.
Cookery and Foodways Collection : The University of Denver Cookery and Foodways Collection is particularly strong in American regional cookery, and contains a large number of privately published fund-raising cookbooks from churches, service organizations, and other community groups.
Heaven Will Protect the Working Girl: Immigrant Women in the Turn-of-the-Century City : This web site is based upon curriculum materials produced by American Social History Project as part of the Who Built America? series.
National American Woman Suffrage Association (NAWSA) Collection : The complete National American Woman Suffrage Association (NAWSA) Collection is a library of 700-800 titles collected between 1890 and 1938 by members of NAWSA and donated to the Rare Books Division of the Library of Congress on November 1, 1938. The bulk of the collection is derived from the library of Carrie Chapman Catt, president of NAWSA from 1900-1904, and again from 1915-1920. Additional materials were donated from the libraries of other members and officers, including Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Susan B. Anthony, Lucy Stone, Alice Stone Blackwell, Julia Ward Howe, Elizabeth Smith Miller, and Mary A. Livermore.
Online Biographical Dictionary of the Woman Suffrage Movement in the United States : This free crowd-sourced project contains over 3,000 biographical sketches of grassroots women suffragists, including a special section focused on nearly 400 Black Women Suffragists.
Sophia Smith Collection at Smith College : The Sophia Smith Collection at Smith College is an internationally recognized repository of manuscripts, photographs, periodicals and other primary sources in women's history.
Women & Social Movements in the United States, 1775-2000 : The Women and Social Movements website is a project of the Center for the Historical Study of Women and Gender at the State University of New York at Binghamton and includes roughly 900 documents, 400 images, and 350 links to other websites.
Women in America: 1820-1842 : During the first half of the nineteenth century, Tocqueville and Beaumont were joined by scores of other European travelers curious about the new republic, and anxious to fill the European demand for accounts of American life. One of the most striking was the status of women--their domestic roles, their freedom in youth, their responsibilities in marriage, and their importance to the moral and religious life of the republic. Tocqueville and Beaumont observed all manner of social gatherings and recorded the conversations with prominent American citizens on a number of matters, including morality and the status of women.
Women Working, 1800 - 1930 : Women Working, 1800 - 1930 focuses on women's role in the United States economy and provides access to digitized historical, manuscript, and image resources selected from Harvard University's library and museum collections. The collection features approximately 500,000 digitized pages and images.

Automobile and Transportation History

America on the Move : Teachers and parents can use the resource guides, lessons, and activity plans to teach children (K- Middle School) about transportation in American history.
Antique Automobile Club of America : The Antique Automobile Club of America, founded in 1935, is dedicated to perpetuating the memories of early automobiles by encouraging their history, collection and use.
Automobile in American Life and Society : This site was created and developed by the University of Michigan-Dearborn and the Henry Ford Museum. Each of the site’s five sections (design, environment, gender, labor, race) contains two essays—an overview of the topic and a more focused case study—plus a select annotated bibliography or bibliographic essay to guide further reading.
Carriage Association of America : The Carriage Association of America is an organization devoted to the preservation and restoration of horse drawn carriages and sleighs. The site features information about the organization and links to related sites.
Hemmings Motor News : This is the online resource of the advertising monthly that is devoted to antique, classic, vintage, muscle, street rod, and special interest automobiles, catering to car collectors and restorers. HMN also features the hobby's most complete calendar of upcoming events, hobbyists' legislative alerts, and a monthly listing of stolen collector cars.
Henry Ford Museum : The Henry Ford Museum began as Henry Ford's personal collection of historic objects. Today, the 12 acre site is primarily a collection of antique machinery, pop culture items, automobiles, locomotives, aircraft, and other items.
Rural Heritage : The online version of the print journal in support of small farmers and loggers who use draft horse, mule and ox power. It features articles and dialogues on animals, equipment, health information, and other resources.
Society for Commercial Archeology : Established in 1977, the SCA is the oldest national organization devoted to the buildings, artifacts, structures, signs, and symbols of the 20th-century commercial landscape.
Best of History Web Sites
Documents in Law, History, and Diplomacy
Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History
History Matters: The U. S. Survey Course on the Web
National Archives Research Room
National History Day
Smithsonian History Explorer
Using Primary Sources on the Web
Architecture and Urbanism of the Southwest : Architecture and Urbanism of the Southwest, is an illustrated essay by John Messina (AIA, Research Architect) and the University of Arizona Southwest Studies Center and the School of Architecture. The site also provides a recommended readings list of books and articles.
Bata Shoe Museum : Located in Toronto, the Bata Shoe Museum holds over 10,000 shoes in the collection.
Built in America: Historic American Buildings Survey (HABS) and the Historic American Engineering Record (HAER) 1933 to present : The Historic American Buildings Survey (HABS) and the Historic American Engineering Record (HAER) collections are among the largest and most heavily used in the Prints and Photographs Division of the Library of Congress. This online presentation of the HABS/HAER collections includes digitized images of measured drawings, black-and-white photographs, color transparencies, photo captions, data pages including written histories, and supplemental materials.
City Beautiful: The 1901 Plan for Washington, DC : A University of Virginia American Studies project, this site documents the first explicit attempt to utilize the vaguely classical Beaux-Arts architectural style, which emerged from the World's Columbian Exposition of 1893, for the explicit intent of beautification and social amelioration was the Senate Park Commission's redesign of the monumental core of Washington D.C. to commemorate the city's centennial. The McMillan Plan of 1901-02, named for Senator James McMillan, the commission's liaison and principal backer in Congress, was the United States' first attempt at city planning.
Corning Museum of Glass : The Corning Museum of Glass's home page begins with its local address and phone numbers and provides a menu of places to visit within the museum site, including, "A Resource for Glass," a collection of information developed to answer questions about glass, and "Glossary of Glassmaking Terms," an alphabetical list of terms with in-depth definitions.
Digital Library for the Decorative Arts and Material Culture : The Digital Library for the Decorative Arts and Material Culture collects electronic resources for study and research of the decorative arts, with a particular focus on Early America. Included are electronic texts and journals, image databases, and information on organizations, museums and research facilities. The site was created and is maintained at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Libraries.
Digital Library for the Decorative Arts and Material Culture: Image and Text Collections : The Digital Library for the Decorative Arts and Material Culture collects and creates electronic resources for study and research of the decorative arts, with a particular focus on Early America. Included are electronic texts and facsimiles, image databases, and Web resources. Made possible by the Chipstone Foundation, the project is produced at the University of Wisconsin Madison General Library System.
Furniture Glossary : A compilation of terms and acronyms on furniture styles, design and construction.
Harper's Bazaar Magazine : A browse-able collection of issues from the 19th Century magazine, Harper's Bazaar (1867-1900).
MAD: Maine Antique Digest : MAD's bulletin board, with table of contents from current issues, and over 90 book reviews of books dealing with antiques and collectibles.
Museum of Glass: International Center for Contemporary Art : The Museum of Glass: International Center for Contemporary Art in Tacoma Washington presents contemporary art with a sustained concentration on the medium of glass. The Museum exhibition schedule includes works by internationally known artists and trends in contemporary art. The exhibition program offers artists and audiences the opportunity to experiment with and experience a full range of media in the visual arts.
National Building Museum : Created by an act of Congress in 1980, the National Building Museum is America’s premier cultural institution dedicated to exploring and celebrating architecture, design, engineering, construction, and urban planning.
National Register of Historic Places : The National Register of Historic Places is the Nation's official list of cultural resources worthy of preservation. Authorized under the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, the National Register is part of a national program to coordinate and support public and private efforts to identify, evaluate, and protect our historic and archeological resources. Properties listed in the Register include districts, sites, buildings, structures, and objects that are significant in American history, architecture, archeology, engineering, and culture. The National Register is administered by the National Park Service, which is part of the U.S. Department of the Interior.
The Noble Craftsman We Promote: The Arts and Crafts Movement in the American Midwest : An online version of the Toledo University exhibition, looks at four particular areas of Arts and Crafts in the Midwest: the book arts, architecture, interior and exterior design, and the decorative arts and attempts to explain how the movement in the heartland differed from its purer British counterpart.
Paint by Number: Accounting for Taste in the 1950s : A brief resource list for a unique subject.
Quilt Index : The Quilt Index aims to be a central resource that incorporates a wide variety of sources and information on quilts, quiltmakers and quiltmaking. The Quilt Index was conceived and developed by The Alliance for American Quilts and implemented in collaboration with Michigan State University's MATRIX: The Center for Humane Arts, Letters and Social Sciences Online and the Michigan State University Museum.
Sears Modern Homes : This site features a history of the Sears Modern Homes program, photos, catalog advertisements, references and a registry of owners. More than 100,000 Sears ready-made houses were sold from 1908 to 1940.
Skyscraper Museum : Founded in 1996, THE SKYSCRAPER MUSEUM is a private, not-for-profit, educational corporation devoted to the study of high-rise building, past, present, and future. Located in New York City, the world's first and foremost vertical metropolis, the museum celebrates the city's rich architectural heritage and examines the historical forces and individuals that have shaped its successive skylines. Through exhibitions, programs and publications, the museum explores tall buildings as objects of design, products of technology, sites of construction, investments in real estate, and places of work and residence.
Society of Architectural Historians (SAH) : Founded in 1940, the Society encourages scholarly research in the field and promotes the preservation of significant architectural monuments that are an integral part of the worldwide historical and cultural heritage. They publish the quarterly Journal of the Society of Architectural Historians and bimonthly Newsletter. There are several bibliographies and links to related organizations.
Stained Glass Magazine : Stained Glass Magazine on the World Wide Web, featuring the Stained Glass Association of America's conference schedule, professional announcements, calls for papers, and lists of useful catalogues and resources of interest to collectors and historians of stained glass.
Strong Museum (Rochester, NewYork) : The Strong Museum's more than 500,000 objects include the world's largest and most historically significant collection of dolls and toys, America's most comprehensive collections of homecrafts and souvenirs, and nationally important collections of home furnishings and advertising materials.
Textile Society of America : The Textile Society of America provides a forum for the exchange and dissemination of information about all aspects of textiles: historic, artistic, cultural, social, political, economic, and technical.
Urban Planning, 1794-1918: An International Anthology of Articles, Conference Papers, and Reports : These documents are primary source material for the study of how urban planning developed up to the end of World War I. They include statements about techniques, principles, theories, and practice by those who helped to create a new professional specialization. This new field of city planning grew out of the land-based professions of architecture, engineering, surveying, and landscape architecture, as well as from the work of economists, social workers, lawyers, public health specialists, and municipal administrators.
Vernacular Architecture Forum : The term "vernacular architecture" applies to traditional domestic and agricultural buildings, industrial and commercial structures, twentieth-century suburban houses, settlement patterns and cultural landscapes. The Vernacular Architecture Forum was formed in 1980 to encourage the study and preservation of these informative and valuable material resources.
Victoria & Albert Museum (London) : The Museum's ceramics, glass, textiles, dress, silver, ironwork, jewellery, furniture, sculpture, paintings, prints and photographs span the cultures of Europe, North America, Asia and North Africa, and date from ancient times to the present day. There are 2000 images of the collection available for online viewing.
Winterthur Museum & Library (Delaware) : The Winterthur Library contains approximately half a million imprints, manuscripts, visual materials, and printed ephemera for research from the 17th century to the early 20th century. The museum collections include 85,000 domestic artifacts and works of art made or used in America to 1860.
Work of Charles and Ray Eames: A Legacy of Invention : This site is in association with the Eames exhibition tour
American Environmental Photographs, 1891-1936: Images from the University of Chicago Library : This collection consists of approximately 4,500 photographs documenting natural environments, ecologies, and plant communities in the United States at the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century. The photographs were taken by Henry Chandler Cowles (1869-1939), George Damon Fuller (1869-1961), and other Chicago ecologists on field trips across the North American continent.
Bureau of Reclamation History : The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation History site is a collection of oral histories, photographs, and papers on the agency and it's work.
Conservation and Environment - Library of Congress : The historic and more recent maps contained in this category show early exploration and subsequent land use in various areas of the United States. These maps show the changes in the landscape, including natural and man-made features, recreational and wilderness areas, geology, topography, wetland area, vegetation, and wildlife. Specific conservation projects such as the growth and development of U.S. National Parks are included in this category.
Evolution of the Conservation Movement, 1850-1920 : The Evolution of the Conservation Movement, 1850-1920 documents the historical formation and cultural foundations of the movement to conserve and protect America's natural heritage, through books, pamphlets, government documents, manuscripts, prints, photographs, and motion picture footage drawn from the collections of the Library of Congress. The collection consists of 62 books and pamphlets, 140 Federal statutes and Congressional resolutions, 34 additional legislative documents, excerpts from the Congressional Globe and the Congressional Record, 360 Presidential proclamations, 170 prints and photographs, 2 historic manuscripts, and 2 motion pictures.
Forest History Society Databases : The Forest History Society has six databases that are searchable on the website via InMagic's Web Publisher software. All of the databases provide useful, detailed information about primary or secondary resource materials that aid research in the broad fields of forest, conservation, and environmental history.
H-Environment - H-NET, the Humanities & Social Sciences Online initiative : This website is intended as a general resource for people interested in environmental history. Much of its content is compiled from the discussion list H-Environment and includes book reviews, conference announcements, a course syllabus library, and a survey of films. There are also links to other organizations and websites where you can find materials of interest.
History of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service : Official website of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, with links to their archival collections, oral histories, and other information sources.
Love Canal Collection : The University Of Buffalo Library holds the records of the Ecumenical Task Force, 1979-1991 which contain extensive documentation of the toxic waste controversies associated with the Love Canal and related toxic waste sites in Niagara County, New York. The ETF assembled a resource file of government and other reports concerning the Love Canal and related environmental issues. The reports in the resource file and elsewhere in the records include draft documents, photocopied statements prepared by Love Canal residents, scientists and ETF members for hearings on the Love Canal, speeches, consultant reports, articles, as well as printed and online reports.
Bon Appétit! Julia Child's Kitchen at the Smithsonian : The Smithsonian's National Museum of American History website of their Julia Child's Kitchen exhibition.
Doubtless as Good: Thomas Jefferson's Dreams of American Wines Fulfilled : This short bibliography, prepared by staff at the National Museum of American History, includes books on the material culture of viniculture, some historic works on American winemaking not included in the Gabler bibliography, and some relevant works on American culture and taste.
Feeding America: The Historic American Cookbook Project : The Michigan State University Library and the MSU Museum have created an online collection of some of the most influential and important American cookbooks from the late 18th to early 20th century.
Food Reference Website : A fairly comprehensive private website that provides links to articles, information, food history dates, and a wide range of useful information on food.
Food Timeline : A resource about food history, social history, manners and menus covering Prehistory through modern day.
Janice Bluestein Longone Culinary Archive : The Janice Bluestein Longone Culinary Archive at the William L. Clements Library on the University of Michigan campus in Ann Arbor contains thousands of items from the 16th to 20th centuries - books, ephemera, menus, magazines, graphics, maps, manuscripts, diaries, letters, catalogues, advertisements, and reference works. It is a work in progress, and material is being added and catalogued daily.
New York Food Museum : A new and developing web-based resource on New York City foodways and food history.
Peacock Harper Culinary Collection - Virginia Tech University : The Peacock Harper Culinary Collection is a collection of cookbooks and related items housed in the Virginia Tech Library. The VT Image Base contains over 700 images pertaining to culinary history and the collection. They publish an online newsletter called the Virginia Culinary Thymes
Southern Foodways Alliance : The Southern Foodways Alliance website contains links to ongoing research projects, symposiums and their oral history texts. It is a subsidiary of the University of Mississippi's, Center for the Study of Southern Culture.
Taking America to Lunch : This Smithsonian exhibition in the National Museum of American History features samples from the museum's collection of lunch boxes from the 19th century plain metal buckets to 20th century popular culture images on boxes made of synthetic materials.

Graphic Art

American Printing History Association : The American Printing History Association was founded to encourage the study of printing history and its related arts and skills, including calligraphy, typefounding, typography, papermaking, bookbinding, illustration, and publishing. APHA is especially, but by no means exclusively, interested in American printing history.
Fine Press Book Association : The Fine Press Book Association is an organization formed by individuals interested in the art of fine printing to promote printing skills and the appreciation of beautiful books.
Graphic Artists Guild
Robert C. Williams Paper Museum : This Web site traces the history, art, and science of paper making.
Society for the History of Authorship, Reading & Publishing : The Society (SHARP) provides a global network for book historians, 1000 members in over 20 countries, including professors of literature, historians, librarians, publishing professionals, sociologists, bibliophiles, classicists, booksellers, art historians, reading instructors, and independent scholars.
Separate Is Not Equal: Brown vs. Board of Education : The annotated bibliography includes information about related Web resources and teacher materials, as well as fiction and non-fiction books for children, young adults, and adults.
Slates, Slide Rules, and Software: Teaching Math in America : A collection of reference resources on the tools used in teaching mathematics in the United States from the 1800s onward.

History of Technology - Invention and Inventors

Canada Science and Technology Museum : This site links you to the various collections within the Canada Science and Technology Museum.
Edison After Forty : This listing includes Edison's Papers, book-length studies, children's books, and museums.
Edison Papers Web Site : The Edison Papers Web Site is a searchable database, based on the University Press of America's editions of Thomas Edison's papers, which detail the first 31 years of his life.
Hagley American Patent Models : The largest privately-owned collection of United States patent models in the world. Containing nearly 4,000 patent models and related documents, the collection spans America's Industrial Revolution.
Lighting a Revolution: A Bibliography of Lighting : A collection of books, articles, and web sites on the history and technology of electrical lighting.
National Inventors Hall of Fame : Web site for the National Inventors Hall of Fame, in Akron, Ohio. Features a collection of biographies of members of the National Inventors Hall of Fame.
Powering a Generation of Change : This bibliography lists books, journal articles, and reports documenting the story of electrical power restructuring in North America.
Society for the History of Technology (SHOT) : The Society for the History of Technology (SHOT) is dedicated to the historical study of technology and its relations with politics, economics, labor, business, the environment, public policy, science, and the arts.
The Office Museum : This commercial website engages in research on the history and evolution of offices, antique office machines and equipment, and business technology based on original documents and artifacts.
U.S. Patent & Trademark Office : The official web site of the USPTO has a searchable database. Patents issued between 1790 and 1976 are searchable only by patent number and current US classifications.
Yesterday's Office : This site contains articles on antique or redundant office technology and links to related sites.
Charles Babbage Institute, University of Minnesota : CBI is dedicated to promoting study of the history of information technology and information processing and their impact on society.
Chronology of Events in the History of Microcomputers : A timetable of significant events in the history of computing, with product announcements and delivery dates from a variety of sources.
Computer Museum History Center (Silicon Valley) : The Computer Museum History Center is a non-profit entity dedicated to the preservation and celebration of computing history. It holds one of the largest collections of computing artifacts in the world.
Intel Museum (Santa Clara) : This museum documents the development and construction of computer chips by one of the leading manufacturers of chip technology.
Internet Archive : The Internet Archive is a non-profit that was founded to build an Internet library, with the purpose of offering permanent access for researchers, historians, and scholars to historical collections that exist in digital format. Founded in 1996 and located in the Presidio of San Francisco, the Archive has been receiving data donations from Alexa Internet and others. In late 1999, the organization started to grow to include more well-rounded collections. Now the Internet Archive includes texts, audio, moving images, and software as well as archived web pages in the collections.
Internet Histories : A collection of links about the history of the Internet, from the ISOC , the Internet Society, a non-governmental international organization, committed to global cooperation and coordination for the Internet.
Making the Macintosh: Technology and Culture in Silicon Valley : "Making the Macintosh" is an online project documenting the history of the Macintosh computer. This project collects and publishes primary material on the Macintosh's development and early reception. It draws on the extensive holdings of the Stanford University Library's Department of Special Collections, the personal papers of engineers and technical writers involved in the Macintosh project, and interviews conducted for the project.
Discovering Lewis and Clark : This comprehensive website contains more than 1,400 pages, and is updated monthly with additional material. This website includes a nineteen-part synopsis of the expedition's story by historian Harry W. Fritz, illustrated with selections from the journals of the expedition, photographs, maps, animated graphics, moving pictures, and sound files.
Kansas State Historical Society: Lewis and Clark : This website provides the user with information about the history of the expedition in Kansas.
Lewis and Clark Expedition: Selected Resources : The Smithsonian Institution has created this directory of sites on the Lewis and Clark Expedition.
Lewis and Clark Across Missouri : The Geographic Resources Center at the Department of Geography, University of Missouri partnered with the Missouri State Archives to create this website offering campsite maps, photo-realistic images of important river landmarks, and animated virtual Missouri River travel to trace Lewis and Clark's expedition.
Lewis and Clark in North Dakota : Lewis and Clark in North Dakota is one of most informative websites available about the expedition. A highlight is the In North Dakota Link that includes personal profiles of the individuals involved in the expedition, background information about the sites that Lewis and Clark visited, an expedition chronology, a facts and trivia section, maps, and a bibliography.
Lewis and Clark Trail Heritage Foundation Inc. : The mission of the Lewis and Clark Trail Heritage Foundation is to stimulate public appreciation of the Lewis and Clark Expedition's contributions to America's heritage, and to support education, research, development, and preservation of the Lewis and Clark experience. Their website includes a detailed history of the expedition with a bibliography. The site also includes a link to the The Lewis and Clark Trail Heritage Foundation Library. The Library has about 800 book titles and 300 articles relating to the Lewis & Clark Expedition. The library also has maps, genealogical information, sound, and video recordings. Users can search the library's catalog online.
Lewis and Clark: Indiana Bicentennial Commission : This site outlines Indiana's important role in the expedition and lists events to commemorate the expedition.
Lewis and Clark: Mapping the West : This Smithsonian site reviews the cartographic work of the Corps of Discovery.
Monticello, The Home of Thomas Jefferson: Jefferson's West : This website has a special section on Lewis and Clark that includes an expedition timeline, bibliography, website links, and online study resources for teachers and students. This site is particularly recommended for users who are interested in researching the role that President Thomas Jefferson played in the expedition.
PBS Online: Lewis and Clark : This website is a companion resource to the Ken Burns film: The Journey of the Corps of Discovery and contains several special features that will appeal to users. It provides users with a search engine enables users to search the expedition journals by author, date, or year. It contains transcripts of unedited interviews with various experts and historians about their perspectives on the expedition. It also includes expedition timelines, maps, a bibliography, and related links.
Rivers, Edens, Empires: Lewis & Clark and the Revealing of America : This site provides a small sampling of primary materials (maps and journal entries) related to the Lewis and Clark expedition that are housed in the Library of Congress.
The Journals of the Lewis and Clark Expedition : The Journals of the Lewis and Clark Expedition website makes available for users the text of the celebrated Nebraska edition of the journals, edited by by Gary M. Moulton. Moulton's edition is considered to be the most accurate and inclusive version published. Currently, the site offers almost two hundred pages from volume 4. In the future, the site will provide access to the full set of journals, almost 5000 pages of primary source material. This site also includes a full text search engine.
Artificial Anatomy: Papier-Mâché Anatomical Models : Resources on Anatomy, Papier- Mâché, Preservation, and Trade Catalogs.
DeWitt Stetten, Jr., Museum of Medical Research (NIH) : Established in 1986 as a part of the NIH centennial observance, the Stetten Museum collects and exhibits biomedical research instruments and NIH memorabilia.
Human Radiation Experiments (DOE) : A website from the US Department of Energy offering a "roadmap" to the stories and records of the cold-war story of radiation research on human subjects.
Medical Antiques & Pre-1900 Antique Surgical Sets : From the Arbittier Museum of Medical History, examples of medical antiques, amputation, and surgical sets by some of the most famous makers of the 1800's. Of particular interest are those surgical antiques used in the Civil War. There is a section on pricing and valuation of early surgical sets and kits as well as extensive topics on antique medical collecting.
Medical Heritage Library : The Medical Heritage Library is a digital curation collaborative among some of the world’s leading medical libraries. The collection resides at the Internet Archive.
Medicine in the Americas, 1619-1914 : The Medicine in the Americas website provides access to a number of key primary historical documents that deal with a number of areas, such as women’s health, public health, and clinical works of enduring historical value. Currently, there are a total of eight works in the archive, and they include Clara Barton’s “The Red Cross of the Geneva Convention” from 1878 and L. Emmett Holt’s 1894 work “The Care and Feeding of Children: A Catechism for the Use of Mothers and Children’s Nurses”.
National Library of Medicine : National Library of Medicine home page, with links to a variety of sites on the Internet.
Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM) : This database is a catalog of human genes and genetic disorders authored and edited by Dr. Victor A. McKusick and his colleagues at Johns Hopkins and elsewhere, and developed for the World Wide Web by NCBI, the National Center for Biotechnology Information.
The Medical Heritage Library : The Medical Heritage Library (MHL) is a digital curation collaborative among some of the world’s leading medical libraries. The collection resides at the Internet Archive.
Access to Military Service and Pension Records : The National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) is the official repository for records of military personnel who have been discharged from the U.S. Air Force, Army, Marine Corps, Navy and Coast Guard.
Air University Library's Index to Military Periodicals : The Air University Library's Index to Military Periodicals is a subject index to significant articles, news items, and editorials from English language military and aeronautical periodicals. The Index contains citations since 1988 and is updated continuously. A comprehensive list of all journals covered by AULIMP since 1949 is available as the Historical Index of AULIMP titles.
Company of Military Historians : The web site for the journal with several useful links and color plates of uniforms.
Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms : Sets forth standard US military and associated terminology to encompass the joint activity of the Armed Forces of the United States in both US joint and allied joint operations, as well as to encompass the Department of Defense as a whole.
Historic U.S. Government Publications from World War II : This Southern Methodist University Libraries site allows users to search or browse a collection of over 300 United States government documents produced during World War II.
Index to the Uniforms of the American Revolution : This site is provided by the Sons of the Revolution in the State of California and contains several images of American Revolutionary War uniforms.
Military Review - English Edition Archives : Archival collection of the professional journal of the U.S. Army Combined Arms Center (CAC) and the Command and General Staff College (CGSC).
Military Women Veterans : This site documents the contributions of American women to the Armed Forces of the United States.
Papers of the War Department, 1784-1800 : Papers of the War Department is a project of the Center for History and New Media, George Mason University and the National Historical Publications and Records Commission. This collection of more than 55,000 documents is in an online format with extensive and searchable metadata linked to digitized images of each document.
Price of Freedom: Americans at War : This online exhibition from the National Museum of American History presents a timeline of American military conflicts from the War of Independence through the War in Iraq, 2003. It also includes information on hundreds of artifacts related to America’s military history, along with learning resources for educators.
Redstone Hyper-media Historical Information : Designed by the MICOM Historical Office, this home page features the Redstone Arsenal Complex Chronological Highlights such as; The Pre-Missile Era (1941-1949) and Women at War: Redstone's WWII Female
United States Army Center of Military History : CMH Online is an information and education service provided by the U.S. Army Center of Military History.
Valley of the Shadow : The Institute for Advanced Technology in the Humanities (IATH) at the University of Virginia's Web page featuring Edward Ayers's material on the Great Valley in the Civil War.
Veterans History Project - Library of Congress : The Veterans History Project covers World War I, World War II, and the Korean, Vietnam, and Persian Gulf wars. It includes all participants in those wars--men and women, civilian and military. It documents the contributions of civilian volunteers, support staff, and war industry workers as well as the experiences of military personnel from all ranks and all branches of service--the Air Force, Army, Marine Corps, and Navy, as well as the U.S. Coast Guard and Merchant Marine.
War Times Journal : The War Times Journal is a free online magazine which covers all periods of military history and military science.
West Point in the Making of America : There are eight subject categories from this exhibition reading list on West Point graduates and their contributions to the nation in peace and war.
World War I Edition of Stars and Stripes - Library of Congress : From February 8, 1918, to June 13, 1919, by order of General John J. Pershing, the United States Army published a newspaper for its forces in France, The Stars and Stripes. This online collection, presented by the Serial and Government Publications Division of the Library of Congress, includes the complete seventy-one-week run of the newspaper's World War I edition.

Naval and Maritime History

Advisory Council on Underwater Archaeology : The Advisory Council on Underwater Archaeology has been at the forefront of underwater archaeology for over 35 years. The ACUA serves as an international advisory body on issues relating to underwater archaeology, conservation, and submerged cultural resources management.It is working to educate scholars, governments, sport divers, and the general public about underwater archaeology and the preservation of underwater resources.
All Hands Magazine Archives : Each issue of this U. S. Navy bulletin and magazine (1922-2011) has been scanned and digitized in Adobe Acrobat format. Free access.
American Merchant Marine at War : The U.S. Maritime Service Veterans complied this collection of war service related topical links.
Council of American Maritime Museum : The Council of American Maritime Museums (CAMM) is an organization dedicated to preserving North America's maritime history. The Members include museums, museum professionals, and scholars from United States, Mexico, Bermuda, Australia and Canada. CAMM works to promote high professional standards in the preservation and interpretation of maritime history. Our Members seek to convey and preserve this history through collections, sites, vessels, projects, exhibitions, and research.
Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships : The Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, commonly known as DANFS, is the foremost reference regarding U.S. naval vessels. Published in nine volumes (from 1959 to 1991), it gives histories for virtually every U.S. naval vessel.
Fast Attacks & Boomers: Submarines in the Cold War : Selections for further reading on the growth and development of the U.S. Nuclear Navy.
Historic Naval Ships Association : The purpose of the Historic Naval Ships Association is to facilitate the exchange of information and provide mutual support among those who are working hard to maintain their aging vessels physically and financially. The ships of HNSA are located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and Australia. The ships are organized into three categories on the site: name of ship, type of ship, and location.
Index to Ships in Books -- Search Page : This index allows researchers to search the names of commercial and naval vessels that were published in a variety of books and serials. A bibliography of those printed resources is included.
International Congress of Maritime Museums : The International Congress of Maritime Museums is a professional guild of associations, organizations, and individuals in the maritime preservation field. Their website includes a news section that provides information about recently discovered wrecks, upcoming museum exhibits, and other developments in the field.
Maritime History Links on the Net : This comprehensive list covers a variety of subjects related to Maritime History.
Nautical Research Guild, Inc. : The Nautical Research Guild links researchers, collectors, and builders of the highest quality ship models. The Guild emphasizes learning about ships and maritime history through academic research, as applied and expressed in the process of ship model building and other artistic and academic endeavors.
Steamship Historical Society of America : The Steamship Historical Society (SSHSA) is an organization dedicated to preserving artifacts and memories from the steamship days of the past.
U.S. Naval Historical Center : The Naval Historical Center is the official history program of the Department of the Navy. The Center now includes a museum, art gallery, research library, archives, and curator as well as research and writing programs.
U.S. Naval Vessel Register : The Naval Vessel Register contains information on ships and service craft that comprise the official inventory of the U.S. Navy from the time of vessel authorization through its life cycle and disposal. It also includes ships that have been stricken but not disposed.
American Numismatic Society : Official website of the American Numismatic Society offers a list of online resources , including MANTIS , a searchable database of over 600,000 objects from the Society's collections of international coins, paper money, tokens, ‘primitive’ money, medals and decorations.
American Numismatics Association : Features information about ANA, a membership form, a link to ANA's ftp site, and links to an educational and museum directory. The FTP site includes press releases; ANA's library catalog; ANA's classification system; video list; and slide lists. The educational and museum directory features ANA's exhibits online; scholarship information; and convention updates.
Coins of Colonial and Early America : This University of Notre Dame site features discussions, descriptions and images of the coins and tokens used in Colonial and Confederation America based on examples in the Department of Special Collections. A companion project features Colonial and Confederation era paper currency.
Money - Past, Present & Future : Sources of information on monetary history, contemporary developments, and the prospects for electronic money.
National Numismatic Collection, Smithsonian Institution, National Museum of American History : The Smithsonian's National Numismatic Collection (NNC) is America's collection of monetary and transactional objects. This diverse and expansive global collection contains objects that represent every inhabited continent and span more than three thousand years of human history.
U.S. Department of the Treasury : U.S. Department of Treasury's Home Page includes press releases and updates on new programs and seminars being offered by the Department.
Freeze Frame: Eadweard Muybridge’s Photography of Motion : Information on the collection, links, and readings on Muybridge and his work on locomotion.
George Eastman Museum: International Museum of Photography and Film : The George Eastman Museum collects and interprets images, films, literature, and equipment in the disciplines of photography and motion pictures and cares for the George Eastman legacy collections.
International Center of Photography : The International Center of Photography is a museum, a school and a center for photographers and photography, whose mission is to present photography's vital and central place in contemporary culture and to lead in interpretation issues central to its development.
Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Collection : Link to the "Collection Finder" page of the Library of Congress American Memory site.
LIFE Magazine photo archive hosted by Google : Search millions of photographs from the LIFE photo archive, stretching from the 1750s to today. Most were never published and are now available for the first time through the joint work of LIFE and Google.
Museum of Photographic Arts : The Museum of Photographic Arts (MoPA) is one of the first museum facilities in the United States designed exclusively to collect and present the world's finest examples photographic art.
National Stereoscopic Association : The association promotes the study, collection and use of stereographs, stereo cameras and related materials for collectors and students of stereoscopic history. There is a link to the Oliver Wendell Holmes Stereoscopic Research Library.
NYPL Digital : The New York Public Digital Library is a continually expanding collection of digitized images and text selected from throughout the Research Libraries' collections.
Stereoscopy : Stereoscopy.com provides information about stereoscopic imaging (3-D) for both amateurs and professionals.
The Daguerreian Society : The Daguerreian Society is an organization of individuals and institutions sharing a common interest in the art, history and practice of the daguerreotype.
UCR Arts : This museum features contemporary exhibitions, digital and web art online, and a vast historical photograph collection.
Building the Washington Metro : This site tells the story of the Washington Metro, a 103-mile rapid transit system serving Washington, D.C., and the surrounding areas of Maryland and Virginia.
Center For Railroad Photography & Art : The center's focus is on the preservation and presentation of railroad-related photography and art.
Central Pacific Railroad Photographic History Museum : This expansive website has an online library of 19th century pictures (more than 2,300), maps and descriptions of railroad construction and travel.
Great Northern Railway Historical Society : The Society works to preserve and promote the history of the Great Northern Railway, which was created in September 1889 from several predecessor railroads in Minnesota and eventually stretched from Lake Superior at Duluth and Minneapolis/St.Paul west through North Dakota, Montana and Northern Idaho to Washington State at Everett and Seattle.
National Railway Historical Society : Founded in 1935, the National Railway Historical Society has nearly 18,000 members and over 177 Chapters spread throughout the United States, Canada and Great Britain. It is now the United States' largest rail enthusiast organization.
Railroad Maps, 1828-1900 : The maps presented here are a selection from the Library of Congress Geography and Map Division holdings, based on the cartobibliography, Railroad Maps of the United States: A Selective Annotated Bibliography of Original 19th-century Maps in the Geography and Map Division of the Library of Congress. This annotated list reveals the scope of the railroad map collection and highlights the development of railroad mapping in 19th-century America. Described are 623 maps chosen from more than 3,000 railroad maps and about 2,000 regional, state, and county maps, and other maps which show "internal improvements" of the past century.
Railroads and the Making of Modern America : This University of Nebraska project seeks to document and represent the rapid and far-reaching social effects of railroads and to explore the transformation of the United States to modern ideas, institutions, and practices in the nineteenth century. Railroads and the Making of Modern America seeks to use the digital medium to investigate, represent, and analyze this social change and document episodes of the railroad's social consequence.
Academic Info: The American West : Academic Info, an educational organization, created this directory of Internet resources on the history of the American West. This list covers a variety of subjects including Native Americans, women, religious history, the Gold Rush, Asian Americans, and railroads.
History of the American West, 1860-1920 : This site contains over 30,000 photographs, drawn from the holdings of the Western History and Genealogy Department at Denver Public Library. These photos illuminate many aspects of the history of the American West. Most of the photographs were taken between 1860 and 1920. They illustrate Colorado towns and landscape, document the place of mining in the history of Colorado and the West, and show the lives of Native Americans from more than forty tribes living west of the Mississippi River.
New Perspectives on the West : This is the companion website to the Ken Burns documentary series, the West. This site contains selected documentary materials, archival images and commentary, as well as links to background information and other resources.
The First American West: The Ohio River Valley, 1750-1820 : This Library of Congress site consists of 15,000 pages of original historical material documenting the land, peoples, exploration, and transformation of the trans-Appalachian West from the mid-eighteenth to the early nineteenth century. The collection is drawn from the holdings of the University of Chicago Library and the Filson Historical Society of Louisville, Kentucky
The Oregon Territory and its Pioneers : This website focuses on the pioneers of the Oregon Territory up to and including 1855...The first section is called THE SETTLING OF OREGON and is a compilation of information [including pioneer lists by year of emigration] extracted from a variety of sources. The second section lists the UPDATES that are in progress. The third section is devoted to RESEARCHING THE PIONEERS and provides links to research and historic sites that may be of interest."
The Oregon Trail : This website is a comprehensive source of information about the historic Oregon Trail. It includes primary source documents such as Trail diaries and memoirs. The site was created by Prof. Mike Trinklein and Steve Boettcher, creators of The Oregon Trail, the award-winning documentary film which aired nationally on PBS.
Canadian Centre for Architecture CCA Library: Special Collections Trade Catalogues : Approximately 5,600 trade catalogues documenting building technology and construction methods from the late eighteenth century to the present. Core of the collection formed through acquisition of the relevant portions of the Franklin Institute trade catalogue collection. Coverage is broad and includes such categories as concrete and lumber, metalwork and woodwork, flooring, heating and insulation, plumbing and electricity, windows and roofing.
Columbia University. Avery Architectural and Fine Arts Library : The American collection is one of the most extensive in existence. It begins with the first pertinent book to be published in the colonies, Abraham Swan's British Architect (Philadelphia, 1775), and includes a large number of titles listed in H.R. Hitchcock's basic bibliography, American Architectural Books. In the seventies and eighties the scope of the American collection was expanded to include printed source materials not previously collected. These include early trade catalogs from the manufacturers of building products (1840-1950).
Cooper-Hewitt, National Design Museum Library Reference Collection : There are over 4,500 trade catalogs in the Cooper-Hewitt Library collection, some dating from the 17th century.
Corning Museum of Glass. Rakow Research Library : The Juliette K. and Leonard S. Rakow Research Library of The Corning Museum of Glass has a wide-ranging collection including books, magazines, trade and auction catalogues, personal and corporate archives, videotapes, microforms, sound recordings, drawings, prints, photographs, and slides. Its mission is to acquire and preserve all informational resources on the art, history and early science and technology of glass, in all languages and all formats.
D'Arcy Collection : The D'Arcy Collection of the Communications Library of the University of Illinois is a collection of almost two million original advertisements published between 1890 and 1970. The collection, which was donated by the D'Arcy, MacManus & Masius advertising agency (now D'Arcy Masius Benton & Bowles) in 1983, is a rich source of research information on products advertised by many agencies. While the vast majority of these advertisements appeared in newspapers, magazines and trade journals, there are a few in other forms such as brochures, signs, and programs. Most of the clippings advertise standard consumer products, but there are a number of obsolete categories such as spats, bathing shoes, and Prohibition.
Digital Collections & Trade Catalogs from the Indiana Historical Society : This collection concentrates on catalogs from businesses that were either headquartered in Indiana or had a substantial presence in the state. Items in this collection date from the 1840s through the 1990s. The catalogs document the wide range of commodities that have come out of Indiana.
Hagley Museum and Library : The library houses an important collection of books, pamphlets, trade catalogs, manuscripts, photographs, ephemera, and audiovisual materials documenting the history of American business and technology. Hagley's main strength is in the Middle Atlantic region, but the scope of collecting includes business organizations and companies with national and international impact.
Instruments for Science, 1800-1914: Scientific Trade Catalogs in Smithsonian Collections : Digital collection of scientific instrument trade catalogs
John W. Hartman Center for Sales, Advertising, and Marketing History : The Ad*Access Project presents images and database information for over 7,000 advertisements printed in U.S. and Canadian newspapers and magazines between 1911 and 1955. Ad*Access concentrates on five main subject areas: Radio, Television, Transportation, Beauty and Hygiene, and World War II. The advertisements are from the J. Walter Thompson Company Competitive Advertisements Collection of the John W. Hartman Center for Sales, Advertising & Marketing History in Duke University's David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library.
Marketing in the Modern Era : Marketing in the Modern Era: Trade Catalogs and the Rise of 19th-Century American Advertising: an online exhibit at the Baker Library at Harvard University.
National Museum of American History Library Trade Literature Collection : This collection contains more than 460,000 catalogs, technical manuals, advertising brochures, price lists, company histories and related materials representing over 36,000 companies.
National Museum of American History -- Archives Center, Warshaw Collection of Business Americana : The National Museum of American History purchased the Warshaw Collection of Business Americana, ca. 1724-1977 in 1967. The collection was assembled by Isadore Warshaw and represents the largest advertising ephemera collection in the United States, occupying more than 1,020 cubic feet of storage space. Organization, re-housing, and description of the Warshaw Collection are a long-term project. Most portions of the collection are open to researchers in the Archives Center.
New Jersey Trade and Manufacturers' Catalogs : Housed in Special Collections and University Archives, the Rutgers University Libraries collection of New Jersey trade and manufacturers catalogs represents part of the University's effort "to collect, preserve and make available for research, primary and secondary materials in various formats, documenting all aspects of New Jersey's history, from its founding to the present."
Otis Historical Archives, National Museum of Health and Medicine, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology : Particularly strong collections within the OHA include the areas of medical illustration, including anatomical drawings and paintings, photographs, and photomicrographs; reconstructive surgery and prosthetics; tropical and infectious disease research; trade literature and advertisements; medical technology and battlefield surgery from the Civil War through to the present conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Seed Catalogs from the Smithsonian Libraries Trade Literature Collection : The Smithsonian Libraries has a unique trade catalog collection that includes about 10,000 seed and nursery catalogs dating from 1830 to the present, documenting the history of the seed and agricultural implement business in the United States, as well as providing a history of botany and plant research such as the introduction of plant varieties into the US. Additionally, the seed trade catalogs are a window into the history of graphic arts in advertising, and a social history, through the text and illustrations, showing changing fashions in flowers and vegetables.
Sewing Machine Galleries : Created by David and Lin Best, this site comprises photographs of over 130 sewing machines from their collection, together with information about the manufacturers that produced them.
Sewing Machines: Historical Trade Literature in Smithsonian Institution Collections : This guide illustrates the range of materials published by and about sewing machine companies in the United States, starting in the 1840s. Sewing machine catalogs and other industry materials are just one portion of the remarkable collections of manufacturers' trade literature held in the libraries, archives and curatorial units of the Smithsonian Institution.
Shedding Light on New York: Edward F. Caldwell & Co. : The E. F. Caldwell & Co. Collection at the Cooper-Hewitt Museum Library, Smithsonian Institution Libraries, contains more than 50,000 images consisting of approximately 37,000 black & white photographs and 13,000 original design drawings of lighting fixtures and other fine metal objects that they produced from the late 19th to the mid-20th centuries.
The Virtual Laboratory (Max Planck Institute for the History of Science) : The digital library of the Virtual Library contains scans of historical books, journals, laboratory notebooks and instrument catalogues. Furthermore, it provides bibliographical information based on tables of contents (overview) and on existing personal bibliographies which have been checked for consistency. Every item can be acessed by author, title, year or word contained in the title.
University of California, Santa Barbara. Library. Special Collections. Romaine Trade Catalog Collection : Lawrence B. Romaine (1900-1967) was an antiquarian book dealer, who bought and sold rare books, manuscripts, trade catalogs, and other Americana. Romaine was recognized as the leading expert in the U.S. on trade catalogs, and was the author of A Guide to American Trade Catalogs, 1774-1900 (New York: R. R. Bowker Company, 1960), the standard reference work in this field. Romaine spent approximately 30 years collecting over 41,000 trade catalogs from the 19th and early 20th centuries, on every imaginable product from agricultural implements, clothes, medical and surgical instruments to weathervanes and windmills. The bulk of his collection focused on machines, tools, engines and other hardware used in agriculture and manufacturing industries.
University of Delaware Trade Catalogs: An online exhibition : The University of Delaware Library Special Collections Department houses an extensive collection of trade catalogs and advertising ephemera produced in the United States from the middle of the eighteenth century until the present day. The trade catalog collection also complements the Special Collections Department's traditional strengths in the history of horticulture, science and technology, printing and publishing, and the book arts. Companies selling printing supplies, agricultural implements and nursery stock, type founders, publishing companies, and booksellers are particularly well-represented as are the catalogs of Delaware businesses.
Victoria and Albert Museum, National Art Library : The National Art Library holds numerous examples of trade catalogues within its collections. Some items entered the NAL during the 19th century, and both current and retrospective examples of trade catalogues have been added to the collections throughout the 20th century. Since 1983 the policy has been to actively collect both current and retrospective examples of trade literature in areas broadly in line with the research interests of the Victoria and Albert Museum.
Winterthur Museum Library : WinterCat is the Winterthur Library's online catalogue and includes nearly 60,000 bibliographic records, representing the holdings of the four collections that constitute the Winterthur Library. Records for imprints, periodicals, rare printed materials, manuscript and ephemera holdings, photographs, and archival resources are all in one database, which researchers can use to determine the library's holdings on any given topic, person, or organization through one search. WinterCat features hyperlinks to manuscript finding aids and selected images.
Women Working, 1800-1930: trade catalogs : To illustrate the world of women working, the Open Collections Program of Harvard University Library has digitized a group of trade catalogs. These colorful works illustrate the dramatic changes that were taking place between 1870 and 1930 in the home, in the workplace, and in the minds of retailers and manufacturers.
Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) : This site contains approximately two million physical and cultural geographic features in the United States and its territories. The Federally recognized name of each feature described in the data base is identified, and references are made to a feature's location by State, county, and geographic coordinates.
Library of Congress Map Collection 1500-2004 : The Library of Congress' map collection contains the topical areas of cities and towns, conservation and environment, discovery and exploration, cultural landscapes, military battles and campaigns, as well as transportation and communication.
Mapping History: American History : The maps cover a variety of historical topics from pre-1500 Native American culture, to the Civil War and Reconstruction, to 20th century health. Some of these maps are interactive.
National Map Small-Scale Collection : The site from the U.S. Geological Survey offers a collection of small-scale datasets available for free download, along with hundreds of printable reference maps developed as part of the 1997-2014 edition of the National Atlas.
University of Georgia Libraries Hargrett Rare Books and Manuscripts : The collection encompasses 500 years including maps on Georgia, the New World, the Colonial America, the revolutionary America, the revolutionary Georgia, the Union and expansion, the American Civil War, the frontier to the new South, Savannah and the coast, and transportation.
University of Illinois Historical Maps Online : These maps mainly focus from 1650 to 1994 on North America and the Northwest Territory, Maps of the Midwest, Illinois and Champaign County, and the Warner & Beers Atlas of 1876.
University of Texas at Austin's Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection : This collection contains maps arranged by state, city, and topical. Many of the maps are from the late 1700s through the early 1900s.
US History by Online Highways : The topical maps include the areas of early America, Colonial Period, Revolutionary America, young republic, and election maps of the early 1900s.

World's Fairs and Expositions

A Century of Progress: The 1933-34 Chicago World's Fair : The John Crerar Library (which is now part of the University of Chicago Libraries) collected various official publications, press releases, guidebooks, and other related materials pertaining to this world exposition. Approximately 350 of those collected items are now available on this website. The collection may be browsed by publication author, publication title, and the general subject of each publication.
Alaska Yukon Pacific Exposition Centennial : This University of Washington Libraries digital collection contains more than 1200 photographs of the 1909 fair held on the grounds of the University of Washington, depicting buildings, grounds, entertainment and exotic attractions.
Donald G. Larson Collection on International Expositions and Fairs, 1851-1940 : The Donald G. Larson Collection at Cal-State Fresno, consists of approximately 1,600 books and more than 6,500 pamphlets, postcard, sheet music, and other materials.
ExpoMuseum : ExpoMuseum was first created as a web site in 1998 by Urso S. A. Chappell, and is maintained by him.The site pays tribute to the past, present, and future of these immensely popular expositions, and also includes a number of fun features, such as a discussion area and a special section dedicated to the architecture of these places.
Hyper-text Thesis on the World's Columbian Exposition : A Masters thesis, by Julie K. Rose, M.A. English, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA on the World's Columbian Exposition of 1893, in Chicago, Illinois, which features a virtual tour of the Fair and offers analysis of social and cultural importance of the World's Columbian Exposition.
Paris 1900 - The Exhibit of American Negroes : The Exhibit of American Negroes is a reconstruction of highlights from an exhibit of the same name put together by W. E. B. DuBois, Thomas Calloway and the Historic Black Colleges for the Paris 1900 International Exposition.
Progress Made Visible: American World's Fairs and Expositions : The Special Collections Department of the University of Delaware Library holds a wide variety of primary source materials relating to the World's Fairs and Expositions held in the United States between 1876 and 1939.
Revisiting World's Fairs and International Expositions: A Selected Bibliography, 1992 - 1999 : This Smithsonian Institution Library bibliography supplements Bridget Burke's bibliography, "World's Fairs and International Expositions: Selected References 1987-1993," which was published as part of Fair Representations: World's Fairs and the Modern World, edited by Robert Rydell and Nancy Gwinn. It focuses on secondary materials that were published between 1992 and mid-summer 1999, but also includes some entries for materials prior to 1992 that were not included in the Burke's bibliography.
The 1904 World's Fair: Looking Back at Looking Forward : An online exhibition in association with the Missouri Historical Society's 2004 centennial celebration of the 1904 St. Louis World's Fair.
The History of World Expositions : An EXPO 2000 resource on twenty previous World's Fairs and Expositions from 1851 to 2000.
The Iconography of Hope: The 1939-40 New York World's Fair : Created by John C. Barans, this site features historical information and digitized photographs chronicling the 1939-40 New York World's Fair.

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Presentation U.S. History Primary Source Timeline

Progressive era to new era, 1900-1929.

American history to 1900

Major resources, related guides, interactive maps, photographs and illustrations.

Colonial America
American Revolution
The Early Republic
War of 1812
Federal records
State & local records
Papers of individuals & organizations
About these guides
British Records on the Atlantic World
The Western Frontier

Librarian for History and African American Studies

Evans Digital Edition Digital library of works published in America in the 17th and 18th centuries. Materials include fiction and non-fiction covering every aspect of American life in the period. Replaces the microfilm collection, Early American Imprints, Microfiche 802.

Shaw-Shoemaker Digital Edition Digital library of works published in America in the early 19th century. Materials include fiction and non-fiction covering every aspect of American life in the period.

American History & Culture Online Digital library of works written or published in the United States, as well as items printed elsewhere, that document the history of the Americas from 1492 to the mid-1800s. Based on Sabin's Bibliotheca Americana.

America's Historical Newspapers Provides searchable full-text of newspapers more than 1,000 U.S. historical newspapers including titles from all 50 states. Includes newspapers from the collections of the American Antiquarian Society, the Library of Congress, the Wisconsin Historical Society and others, including the microfilm collection based on Brigham's "History and Bibliography of American Newspapers." Note that this digital edition replaces Early American Newspapers, Microfilm S00973.

Nineteenth Century U. S. Newspaper Digital Archive Digital archive of U.S. newspapers from the 19th century.

American Broadsides and Ephemera Digital edition of broadsides printed between 1820 and 1900 and ephemera printed between 1760 and 1900. From the collections of the American Antiquarian Society.

American Pamphlets Series I 1820-1922: From the New York Historical Society Digital edition of pamphlets from the collections of the New-York Historical Society. Includes more than 25,000 short works printed in every region of the United States between 1820 and 1922.

American Antiquarian Society (AAS) Historical Periodicals Collection Digital collection of American periodicals published between 1691 and 1877.

Eighteenth Century Collections Online Provides partially searchable digital images of about 150,000 books, primarily British, printed in the eighteenth century. Based on the Eighteenth-Century Short-Title Catalogue.

Making of the Modern World Digital Archive Digital edition of the Goldsmiths'-Kress collections of books on that document economic and business activity in the West, from the last half of the 15th century to the mid-19th century. Materials include books, pamphlets and ephemera and cover a broad range of topics in political science, history, sociology, and banking, finance, transportation and manufacturing. Replaces Goldsmiths'-Kress collection, Microfilm S00656

Fold3 Online access to material from the National Archives documenting a wide range of topics in American history. Also includes genealogical material and a collection of small town newspapers. Formerly known as footnote.com.

British Records on the Atlantic World British Online Archives "This series brings together a wealth of collections spanning two centuries of Britain's colonisation, commercial, missionary and even literary relations with Africa and the Americas." Reproduces in part microfilm from the series British Records Relating to America in Microform (BRRAM), including some collections listed elsewhere on these guides.

American History, 1493-1945 This link opens in a new window Documents American history from the earliest settlers to the mid-twentieth century. It is sourced from the Gilder Lehrman Collection.
Colonial America This link opens in a new window Digital edition of the documents in Colonial Office (CO) 5 at the UK National Archives. CO 5 constitutes the original correspondence of the colonial governments with the Board of Trade, the Secretary of State for the Southern Department and the Secretary of State for the Colonies, together holding responsibility for the British possessions in mainland North America and the Caribbean.
Docuseek2 Complete Collection This link opens in a new window Educational streaming access to documentaries.
Colonial Society of Massachusetts Digitized primary sources from early European colonists
The Gilded Age Primary documents and scholarly commentary, with key treatises, songs, letters, photographs, cartoons, government documents, and ephemera from the late 19th century.
Everett D. Graff Collection of Western Americana More than 3,700 digitized manuscripts from the Newberry Library's Graff collection, documenting America's westward expansion. Topics covered include narratives from explorers, pioneers, hunters, traders, and prospectors; accounts of the Mormon treks of 1846 and 1849, the California gold rush, and overland travel during the 19th century; the development of transcontinental railroads; the growth of Western city and town life; and the history and culture of Native Americans.
Edward E. Ayer Digital Collection Digitized manuscripts from the Newberry Library's Ayer collection on American Indians.
Freedom on the Move Rediscovering The Stories Of Self-Liberating People: A database of fugitives from American Slavery. A searchable database of advertisements in newspapers offering information about enslaved people escaping from captivity.

Other guides that cover American history before 1900:

U.S. presidential papers by Steven Knowlton Last Updated Dec 19, 2023 360 views this year
Papers of prominent American individuals & families by Steven Knowlton Last Updated Dec 19, 2023 95 views this year
The Overland Trails Track westward migration in the 1840s
Foreign-Born Population, 1850-2010
Canals 1820-1860
The Spread of U.S. Slavery, 1790-1860
How America’s Source of Immigrants Has Changed in the States, 1850 – 2013
Mapping American Social Movements Through the 20th Century This project produces and displays free interactive maps showing the historical geography of dozens of social movements that have influenced American life and politics since the start of the 20th century, including radical movements, civil rights movements, labor movements, women's movements, and more.
Invasion of America Shows the change in sovereignty over time as Indian lands became subject to the U.S. government, from 1776-1887
IndianNation Allows users to locate an Indian Community from the 1900 Census and obtain information about that community
Mapping Occupation Shows the size and location of U.S. army posts during Reconstruction
Of Methods and Madness Maps guerrilla violence during the Civil War
Pox Americana Maps outbreaks of smallpox throughout American history
Fugitive Federals: A Digital Humanities Investigation of Escaped Union Prisoners Visualizes the escape of 3,000 Federal prisoners of war during the Civil War
Monroe Work Today - Interactive Map of Lynchings Over Time This site presents a history of lynching, highlights anti-lynching activists, and offers an interactive map that shows the time and place of all recorded lynchings between 1835 and 1964.
Mapping Inequality Digitized real estate maps from the Home Owners' Loan Corporation between 1935 and 1940, showing redlining in numerous cities across the U.S.
Electing the House of Representatives Interactive map showing relative strength of parties, changing district boundaries, and trends over time.
Renewing Inequality: Family Displacements through Urban Renewal Visualizes the forced moving of families due to federally-funded "urban renewal" projects between 1950 and 1966
The Executive Abroad Tracks trips to other countries by presidents and secretaries of state from 1906 to 2016
The Forced Migration of Enslaved People Tracks the numbers of enslaved people forced to migrate within the United States, showing in-migration and out-migration by state and year
The Lasting Legacy of Redling Compare maps of redlined neighborhoods from the 1960s to current maps
Mapping Prejudice Interactive maps and data showing the extent of "racial covenant" clauses in Minnesota real estate
Justice InDeed Interactive map showing "racial covenants" clauses in Michigan real estate
Mapping the Destruction of Tennessee's African American Neighborhoods more... less... This project overlays historical maps onto present-day maps revealing how these neighborhoods looked prior to their erasure from the landscape by mid-century public works projects. To see the differences between past and present, just grab the gray bar in the middle and swipe. You can zoom, scroll, and pan just as you would on any other online map. Some of the maps have zoom limits and will disappear if magnified too far.
Landscape of Liberation An interactive map showing the landscape of emancipation as it unfolded from 1860 to 1890. As slavery and plantation life dissolved in the crucible of war and occupation, Tennessee became a laboratory of innovative social arrangements for African Americans. This application provides new tools and powerful geospatial software for looking at these transformative events during a time of profound social change. Every point on the map is linked to primary documents and images that tell the story of people, places, and events.
The Living New Deal more... less... Interactive map showing sites where New Deal funding supported construction, artworks, and other activities
Land Acquisition and Dispossession: Mapping the Homestead Act, 1863-1912 The Homestead Act of 1862 offered Americans the opportunity to claim parcels of "public land," occupy and improve it for five years, and then receive title to it. This map visualizes over time and space the more than 2.3 million claims and 900,000 "patents" granting ownership made and issued in the half-century after passage of the act. By 1912, homesteaders had transformed more than 125 million acres—more than 5% of the total acreage of the entire United States—from public lands to private property. During the same period, Americans and their government dispossessed Native Americans of large portions of the American West. While not doing it full justice, this map pays particular attention to the dispossession of those lands through violence and claims on Indian reservations that the federal government defined as "surplus."
New York Public Library Digital Collections More than 700,000 images from NYPL's collection
Metropolitan Museum of Art Digital Collections More than 400,000 digital images
Library of Congress Digital Collections
Carl van Vechten Collection of Portraits Photographs of celebrities, including many figures from the Harlem Renaissance, taken between 1932 and 1964.
William P. Gottlieb Collection of Jazz Photographs, 1938-1948
Digital Public Library of America
Ad*Access Over 7,000 U.S. and Canadian advertisements covering five product categories - Beauty and Hygiene, Radio, Television, Transportation, and World War II propaganda - dated between 1911 and 1955.
Images of America: a history of American life in images and texts over a million images of people and places in American small towns and cities, pulled from the local history book series
Everett D. Graff Collection of Western Americana More than 130,000 digitized images from the Newberry Library's Graff collection, documenting America’s westward expansion. Topics covered include narratives from explorers, pioneers, hunters, traders, and prospectors; accounts of the Mormon treks of 1846 and 1849, the California gold rush, and overland travel during the 19th century; the development of transcontinental railroads; the growth of Western city and town life; and the history and culture of Native Americans.
Edward E. Ayer Digital Collection More than 100,000 digitized images from the Newberry Library's Edward E. Ayer collection, one of the world's premiere sources of primary documents on American Indians. Topics covered include Native American archaeology, ethnology, art, and language; the history of the contact between Europeans and native peoples; voyages, travels, and accounts of early America; the development of cartography of the Western Hemisphere; and the history of the aboriginal peoples under the jurisdiction of the U.S. in the Philippine Islands and Hawaii.
Billy Ireland Cartoon Library Digitized collection of cartoons from the 1830s to the present
Marchand Archive Archive of photos and paintings depicting scenes from American life
NPGallery - National Park Service Digital Asset Management System Thousands of images digitized from the archives of the National Park Service; not limited to images of national parks, but includes many other historical scenes
AP Newsroom (includes AP Images Collection) This link opens in a new window Contains breaking news, feature stories, photographs, graphics and audio clips produced by the AP network of journalists, who operate in more than 250 locations worldwide.
Old Book Illustrations Downloadable illustrations—usually engravings or woodcuts— from books prior to the 1920s
The Magazine of Early American Datasets (MEAD) Open-access datasets for U.S. history; includes passenger lists, probate records, jail records, business records
Members of Congress who Enslaved Black People Washington Post interactive database
Next: Colonial America >>
Last Updated: Jul 31, 2024 9:03 AM
URL: https://libguides.princeton.edu/history/USto1900

USC Libraries
Research Guides

19th Century U.S. History

19th century newspapers & magazines.

Encyclopedias & Background Sources
Books & Book Reviews
Databases & Journals

Finding 19th Century Newspapers

Primary Sources
Citing Sources

If you are looking to see if USC has access to a specific newspaper, start by searching the Journals option on the Libraries' homepage and then enter the title of the newspaper for which you are looking to see if we have access to the publication online or in print

Databases that index historical newspapers:

California Newspaper Project (CNP) This link opens in a new window The California Newspaper Project is an 18 year effort by the CBSR to identify, describe and preserve California newspapers. more... less... Close to 9,000 California newspapers were inventoried in over 14,000 repositories throughout the state, 1.5 million pages of California newspapers were preserved and made available on microfilm, and 100,000 rolls of negative microfilm rolls are being processed for permanent storage at the UC Regional Library Storage Facilities.
Chronicling America: Historic American Newspapers This link opens in a new window This site allows you to search and view newspaper pages from 1836-1922 and find information about American newspapers published between 1690-present. Chronicling America is sponsored jointly by the National Endowment for the Humanities and the Library of Congress as part of the National Digital Newspaper Program (NDNP).

Reference books that index 19th century newspapers:

African-American Newspapers and Periodicals: A National Bibliography (1998) Covers publications from 1827 to 1990s

Antislavery Newspapers and Periodicals (1980) 5 vols.

A History of American Magazines (1958) 5 vols.

Index to Black Newspapers (1984)

Newspaper Indexes: A Location and Subject Guide for Researchers (1977) 3 vols. - Lists newspapers by county and state, with date ranges and depository designation

Newspapers: A Reference Guide (1987) This finding aid has information on newspaper indexes

The Wellesley index to Victorian Periodicals, 1824-1900 (1966) 5 vols.

Arizona Digital Newspaper Program Dates covered: 1859-1978
Brooklyn Daily Eagle Online Dates covered: 1841-1902
California Digital Newspaper Collection This link opens in a new window A Freely Accessible Repository of Digitized California Newspapers from 1846 to the Present.
Chronicling America: Historic American Newspapers This link opens in a new window Dates covered: Fulltext - 1836-1922 Directory: 1690-present Sponsored jointly by the National Endowment for the Humanities and the Library of Congress, this site allows you to search and view over 600 newspapers from 25 States and the District of Columbia from 1836-1922. Can also search the U.S. Newspaper Directory to find information about American newspapers published between 1690-present.
Chronicling America: California Newspapers (1873-1913) Newspapers include: - Los Angeles Daily Herald (1873-1876), Daily Los Angeles Herald (1878-1884), Los Angeles Daily Herald (1884-1890), Los Angeles Herald (1890-1893), The Herald (1893-1898), Los Angeles Herald (1905-1910) - Imperial Press (4/20/1901-10/26/1901), The Imperial Press and Farmer(1901-1903), The Imperial Press (1903-1905), Imperial Valley Press and The Imperial Press (1906-1907), and Imperial Valley Press (1907-1910). - The Morning Call (1890-1895), The San Francisco Call (1895-1913), The Call-Chronicle-Examiner (4/19/1906),The San Francisco Call and Post (1913) - Amador Ledger (1900-1910) - Sacramento Daily Record-Union (1880-1891), The Record-Union (1891-1899)
Colorado's Historical Newspapers Collection Dates covered: 1859 - 1923 more... less... Currently includes more than 500,000 digitized pages, representing 163 individual newspaper titles published in Colorado from 1859 to 1923.
Georgia Historic Newspapers Dates covered: 1750-1925 more... less... Contains issues of three important historic Georgia newspapers: the Cherokee Phoenix, the Dublin Post, and the Colored Tribune. Currently the only paper being added to this resource is the Cherokee Phoenix.
Making of America - 19th Century Journals and magazines Provides scanned copies of 991 volumes of 22 popular American magazines and journals published between 1815-1900 more... less... Titles include: The American Missionary (1878 - 1901); The American Whig Review (1845 - 1852); The Atlantic Monthly (1857 - 1901); The Bay State Monthly (1884 - 1886); The Century (1881 - 1899); The Continental Monthly (1862 - 1864); The Galaxy (1866 - 1878); Harper's New Monthly Magazine (1850 - 1899); The International Monthly Magazine (1850 - 1852); The Living Age (1844 - 1900); Manufacturer and Builder (1869 - 1894); The New England Magazine (1886 - 1900); The New-England Magazine (1831 - 1835); New Englander (1843 - 1892); The North American Review (1815 - 1900); The Old Guard (1863 - 1867); Punchinello (1870); Putnam's Monthly (1853 - 1870); Scientific American (1846 - 1869); Scribner's Magazine (1887 - 1896); Scribner's Monthly (1870 - 1881); The United States Democratic Review (1837 - 1859)
North Carolina Newspaper Digitization Project (1751-1898) more... less... A project of the North Carolina State Archives, this collection contains over 23,000 pages from newspapers. Click on the link "Newspapers Included" to see the current list of titles from 6 towns. The runs are mostly short, sometimes with only 2 or 3 issues from one paper. Advertisements are included, including indexing of the text. In addition to browsing, you can search by keyword, year, or a particular newspaper
New York State Historic Newspapers Dates covered: 1795-2011
Oregon Historic Newspapers Dates covered: 1860-1922 more... less... 46 newspapers have been digitized so far, with over 180,000 pages made available.
Pennsylvania Civil War Newspapers Dates covered: 2/23/1831 - 2/14/1877 more... less... Contains all of the words, photographs and advertisements from selected newspapers published in the years before, during and after the U.S. Civil War
Utah Digital Newspapers Dates covered: 1850-1969 Access to over 50 digitized Utah titles. Added to monthly
Washington State Historic Newspapers Dates covered: 1852-2010
Wyoming Newspaper Project Dates covered: 1849-1922 All of the newspapers printed in Wyoming between 1849 and 1922 are available in this this searchable and browsable collection.
List of 19th Century Periodicals (freely) available online from Marist College
<< Previous: Databases & Journals
Next: Primary Sources >>
Last Updated: Jul 25, 2024 12:03 PM
URL: https://libguides.usc.edu/hist360

Best History Research Paper Topics

Dive into the world of historical scholarship with our comprehensive guide to the best history research paper topics . Primarily designed for students tasked with writing history research papers, this guide presents a curated list of 100 exceptional topics, divided into 10 distinct categories, each with a unique historical focus. The guide offers clear and practical advice on how to choose the most compelling history research paper topics, and provides 10 handy tips on crafting an outstanding research paper. In addition to academic guidance, the guide introduces the superior writing services of iResearchNet, a reliable option for students needing customized history research papers.

Comprehensive List of Best History Research Paper Topics

The following comprehensive list of the best history research paper topics is crafted to stimulate your curiosity and ignite your passion for historical study. These topics cover a range of historical periods and geographical locations to cater to the diverse interests of history students.

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Ancient History Topics

The Causes and Effects of the Fall of the Roman Empire
Daily Life in Ancient Egypt
The Influence of Alexander the Great’s Conquests on the Hellenistic World
The Role of Women in Spartan Society
The Construction and Significance of the Great Wall of China
The Impact of Confucianism on Ancient Chinese Society
Trade Routes and their Role in the Expansion of Ancient Civilizations
The Cultural and Political Influence of the Phoenician Civilization
Comparing Democracy in Ancient Greece to Modern Democracy
The Religious Practices and Beliefs of the Mayans

Medieval History Topics

The Role of the Catholic Church in Medieval Europe
The Impact of the Black Death on Medieval Society
The Cultural Significance of the Knights Templar
Gender Roles and Family Structure in Medieval Japan
The Causes and Consequences of the Hundred Years War
The Political Structure of the Byzantine Empire
The Influence of the Carolingian Renaissance on Europe
The Role of Vikings in European Trade and Exploration
The Crusades: Causes, Events, and Consequences
The Architecture and Symbolism of Gothic Cathedrals

Early Modern History Topics

The Causes and Effects of the Protestant Reformation
The Role of the Enlightenment in the French Revolution
The Impact of the Scientific Revolution on European Society
The Socioeconomic Consequences of the Industrial Revolution
The Influence of the Ottoman Empire on Southeast Europe
The Role of Slavery in the Colonial Economies
The Politics and Culture of the Renaissance in Italy
European Imperialism in Africa and Asia
The Cultural and Political Impacts of the Mughal Empire
The American Revolution: Causes, Events, and Legacy

Modern History Topics

The Causes and Global Consequences of World War I
The Great Depression: Causes and Effects
The Role of Propaganda in World War II
The Impact of the Cold War on International Relations
The Civil Rights Movement in the United States
The Fall of the Berlin Wall and the End of the Cold War
The Effects of Decolonization in the 20th Century
The Role of Women in the World Wars
The Formation and Impact of the European Union
The Causes and Consequences of the Arab Spring

Asian History Topics

The Cultural Impact of the Silk Road in Asia
The Effects of Colonial Rule in India
The Legacy of the Mongol Empire in Asia
The Cultural and Political Changes in China’s Cultural Revolution
The Korean War: Causes, Events, and Consequences
The Role of Samurai in Feudal Japan
The Impact of the Opium Wars on China
The Influence of Buddhism on Asian Cultures
The Cambodian Genocide under the Khmer Rouge
The Role of Gandhi in India’s Independence

American History Topics

The Impact of the New Deal on the American Economy
The Vietnam War: Causes, Events, and Legacy
The Influence of the Beat Generation on American Culture
The Role of Manifest Destiny in Westward Expansion
The Cuban Missile Crisis and Its Effects on the Cold War
The Women’s Suffrage Movement in the United States
The Native American Civil Rights Movement
The Role of the Transcontinental Railroad in American Expansion
The Civil War: Causes, Events, and Aftermath
The Immigration Wave at Ellis Island: Causes and Effects

European History Topics

The Impacts of the Russian Revolution
The Influence of Martin Luther’s Theses on Europe
The British Empire: Rise, Dominance, and Fall
The Role of Art in the French Revolution
The Impact of the Spanish Inquisition on Spain and its Colonies
The Rise and Influence of Fascism in Europe
The Role of the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages
The Consequences of the Treaty of Versailles
The Formation and Impact of NATO
The Role of the Media in the Fall of the Berlin Wall

African History Topics

The Effects of Apartheid in South Africa
The Influence of the Trans-Saharan Trade on West African Societies
The Role of Nelson Mandela in Ending Apartheid
The Scramble for Africa and its Effects on the Continent
The Impact of the Atlantic Slave Trade on West Africa
The Rwandan Genocide: Causes and Consequences
The Role of the African Union in Continental Politics
The Impact of Islam on North Africa
The Decolonization of Africa in the 20th Century
The Role of Women in Pre-Colonial African Societies

Military History Topics

The Influence of Technological Innovations on Warfare
The Role of the French Foreign Legion in Global Conflicts
The Impact of the Manhattan Project on World War II and Beyond
The Role of the Spartans in Ancient Greek Warfare
The Impact of Drones on Modern Warfare
The Influence of the English Longbow on Medieval Warfare
The Role of the Maginot Line in World War II
The Impact of Naval Power on the British Empire
The Influence of Nuclear Weapons on International Politics
The Role of Propaganda in World War I

This expansive list of best history research paper topics offers a comprehensive exploration of the past, crossing different eras, regions, and themes. They form a rich tapestry of human experience and a foundation for understanding our present and future. Choose a topic that piques your interest, ignites your curiosity, and promises a journey of intellectual discovery. Remember that the exploration of history is a journey into the roots of our shared humanity and an exploration of the forces that shape our world.

History and What Range of Best Research Paper Topics it Offers

As a subject of study, history is more than a chronological list of events, dates, and prominent figures. History is the exploration of human experiences, societal changes, political upheavals, cultural transformations, economic shifts, and technological advancements across different periods and regions. This exploration allows us to understand how the past has shaped our present and how it can potentially shape our future. It teaches us to appreciate the complexities and nuances of human nature and society, making history a rich field for research paper topics.

History is an interdisciplinary field, interweaving elements from various areas of study, including politics, sociology, economics, anthropology, geography, and literature. This interdisciplinary nature provides a wide array of best history research paper topics. Moreover, the global scope of history further broadens the pool of topics, as it encompasses every region of the world and every period from the dawn of human civilization to the present day.

Exploring Different Periods

Historical research often focuses on specific periods, each offering unique topics for exploration. For instance, Ancient History provides topics related to ancient civilizations like Rome, Greece, Egypt, China, and India, and key events such as Alexander the Great’s conquests or the fall of the Roman Empire.

The Medieval Period offers topics related to the socio-political structure of societies, the influence of religion, the impact of plagues, and the role of significant historical figures. Researching the Renaissance can focus on cultural, artistic, and scientific revolutions that have shaped the modern world.

The Modern History category contains topics related to significant events and transformations, such as world wars, the Great Depression, the Cold War, decolonization, and various national and international movements.

Geographical Perspectives

Geographical focus is another common approach in historical research. Asian history encompasses topics ranging from the influence of Confucianism in China to the impact of colonial rule in India. European history explores events such as the Enlightenment, the French and Russian revolutions, and the formation of the European Union. American history topics can cover everything from Manifest Destiny to the Civil Rights Movement. African history can delve into the effects of the Atlantic Slave Trade, the apartheid era, and decolonization.

Thematic Approaches

In addition to period- and region-based topics, history offers an extensive range of thematic topics. These themes often intersect with other disciplines, leading to exciting interdisciplinary research opportunities.

Social and cultural history, for instance, covers diverse topics such as the influence of the Harlem Renaissance on African American culture, the counterculture movement of the 1960s, the role of film and television in shaping societies, or the impacts of the Internet on global culture.

Military history provides a wide range of topics related to warfare, strategy, technological developments, and the influence of military conflicts on societies and politics. From the use of the English longbow in medieval warfare to the impact of drones on modern warfare, this field offers a variety of fascinating topics.

Making the Right Choice

The choice of a research paper topic in history should ideally be guided by your interest, the available resources, and the requirements of your assignment. With such a wide range of topics, it can be challenging to make a choice. But remember, a good history research paper topic is not just about the past; it should also engage with the present and potentially shed light on the future. The best research paper topics are those that not only delve deep into the annals of history but also resonate with current issues and debates.

The study of history is a gateway into the vast narrative of human civilization. With an extensive range of periods, regions, and themes to choose from, history offers a rich reservoir of research paper topics. As we delve into the past, we discover the forces that have shaped our world, gain insights into the human experience, and glean lessons for our future. This journey of exploration makes history an incredibly exciting field for research papers.

How to Choose Best History Research Paper Topics

Choosing the best history research paper topic can be the first step towards a rewarding intellectual journey. It’s not just about meeting academic requirements; it’s about uncovering facets of the past that intrigue you and may potentially contribute to the broader understanding of history. Here are twenty in-depth tips that will guide you through the process and help you select the best topic for your history research paper.

Understand the Assignment: Understanding your assignment’s requirements is the primary and most critical step in selecting a topic. Take time to carefully read the guidelines given by your instructor. Are there any specific historical periods, geographical regions, or themes you are required to focus on? Do the instructions indicate the scope or complexity level of the topic? Comprehending the parameters set by your instructor will significantly narrow down your options.
Choose a Time Period: One way to approach the topic selection is by focusing on a particular time period that sparks your interest. It could be anything from the Bronze Age, to the Renaissance, to World War II. The more interested you are in the chosen time period, the more engaged you will be in the research process.
Pick a Region: Similar to choosing a time period, selecting a particular region or country can also help narrow down potential topics. Are you fascinated by the history of East Asia, intrigued by ancient Egypt, or drawn to the socio-political history of Europe? Starting with a geographic focus can provide a strong foundation for your research.
Identify a Theme: In addition to or instead of a time period or region, you might want to choose a theme that you wish to explore. Themes can range from political history, cultural history, history of science and technology, to gender history, among others. A thematic approach can offer a unique perspective and can even allow you to cross over different time periods or regions.
Conduct Preliminary Research: Even before you have a firm topic in hand, engage in some preliminary research. This could involve reviewing textbooks, scholarly articles, or reputable online resources related to your chosen period, region, or theme. Preliminary research can give you a general sense of the historical context and inspire potential topics.
Seek Inspiration from Existing Works: As part of your preliminary research, look at other research papers, theses, or dissertations in your area of interest. This can give you a good idea of what has been done, what gaps exist in the research, and where your research could potentially fit in.
Scope Your Topic: The scope of your topic should be proportionate to the length and depth of your paper. If your paper is relatively short, a narrow, focused topic would be more suitable. For a longer and more complex paper, a broader topic that explores multiple facets or perspectives would be more appropriate.
Consider the Relevance: Another aspect to consider when selecting a topic is its relevance. Does the topic have any relation to the course you are undertaking? Does it reflect on current historical or social debates? A topic that connects your historical research to broader academic or social issues can make your paper more impactful and engaging.
Look for Unique Angles: While not every research paper can revolutionize the field, striving for some degree of originality in your work is always a good practice. Look for unique angles, underexplored areas, or new perspectives on a well-trodden topic. Presenting a fresh approach can make your paper more interesting for both you and your readers.
Assess the Availability of Sources: Your research paper is only as good as your sources. Before finalizing your topic, make sure there are enough primary and secondary sources available to you. This could be in the form of books, academic articles, documentary films, archives, databases, or digital resources.
Evaluate the Feasibility: Beyond the availability of sources, consider other practical aspects of your chosen topic. Is it feasible to conduct the research within the given time frame? Is the topic too complex or too simplistic for your current academic level? A realistic evaluation of these factors at an early stage can save you a lot of time and effort down the line.
Reflect on Your Interests: Above all, select a topic that genuinely piques your curiosity. A research paper is a significant undertaking, and your interest in the topic will sustain you through potential challenges. If you are passionate about the topic, it will reflect in your writing and make your paper more compelling.
Solicit Feedback: Seek advice from your instructor, classmates, or any other knowledgeable individuals. They may be able to provide valuable feedback, point out potential pitfalls, or suggest different perspectives that can enrich your research.
Be Flexible: Be prepared to tweak, adjust, or even overhaul your topic as you delve deeper into the research process. New information or insights may emerge that shift your focus or challenge your initial assumptions.
Bridge the Past and Present: Try to find topics that allow you to connect historical events or phenomena with contemporary issues. This can provide additional depth to your paper and may also appeal to a broader audience.
Consult Specialized Encyclopedias and Guides: These can provide overviews of various topics and can often suggest areas for research. They also offer bibliographies which can serve as a starting point for your research.
Draft a Preliminary Thesis Statement: Once you have a potential topic, try drafting a preliminary thesis statement. This can help you focus your ideas and give you a clear direction for your research.
Ensure Your Topic Meets the Assignment Goals: Check back with your assignment guidelines to make sure your chosen topic meets all the requirements. It’s a good idea to do this before you start your in-depth research.
Be Ready to Invest Time and Effort: Choose a topic that you are ready to spend time on. Remember, you will be working on this topic for an extended period, so choose something that you find interesting and engaging.
Enjoy the Process: Finally, remember that the process of researching and writing a history paper can be a source of enjoyment and intellectual satisfaction. Choose a topic that not only meets academic requirements but also gives you a sense of accomplishment and discovery.

Choosing the best history research paper topic is not merely about fulfilling an academic requirement. It’s about setting the stage for a journey into the past, an exploration of humanity’s collective memory. The right topic will not only make this journey enjoyable but also deeply enlightening. By considering these tips, you can select a topic that resonates with you and holds the potential for a meaningful scholarly contribution.

How to Write a Best History Research Paper

Writing a history research paper can be a rewarding experience, providing an opportunity to delve into the past and explore the events, ideas, and personalities that have shaped our world. However, crafting a high-quality paper requires more than just an interest in the subject matter. It involves thorough research, analytical thinking, and clear, persuasive writing. Here are twenty comprehensive tips on how to write a best history research paper.

Understand the Assignment: Begin by thoroughly understanding the assignment. Ensure you grasp the requirements, the scope of the paper, the format, and the deadline. Clear any doubts with your professor or peers before you start.
Select a Suitable Topic: As discussed earlier, choosing an appropriate topic is crucial. It should be engaging, manageable, and meet the assignment’s requirements. Consider your interests, the available resources, and the paper’s scope when choosing the topic.
Conduct In-Depth Research: Once the topic is decided, embark on thorough research. Use a variety of sources, such as books, academic journals, credible online sources, primary sources, and documentaries. Remember to take notes and record the sources for citation purposes.
Formulate a Thesis Statement: The thesis statement is the central argument or point of your paper. It should be clear, concise, and debatable, providing a roadmap for your entire paper. The thesis statement should guide your research and each main point you make in your paper should support this central idea.
Create an Outline: An outline helps organize your thoughts and arguments. Typically, it should include an introduction (with the thesis statement), body paragraphs (with topic sentences), and a conclusion. Each point in your outline should be a reflection of your thesis statement.
Start with a Strong Introduction: The introduction should be engaging, provide some background on the topic, and include the thesis statement. It sets the tone for the rest of your paper, so make it compelling and informative.
Develop Body Paragraphs: Each body paragraph should focus on one main idea that supports your thesis. Begin with a topic sentence, provide evidence or arguments, and then conclude the paragraph by linking it back to your thesis. Be clear and concise in your arguments.
Use Evidence Effectively: Support your arguments with evidence from your research. This could include quotations, statistics, or primary source materials. Remember to interpret the evidence and explain its relevance to your argument.
Maintain a Logical Flow: The ideas in your paper should flow logically from one point to the next. Use transitional words and phrases to maintain continuity and help guide your reader through your paper.
Write a Compelling Conclusion: Your conclusion should sum up your main points, restate the thesis in light of the evidence provided, and possibly offer areas for further research or a concluding insight. It should leave the reader with something to think about.
Cite Your Sources: Always cite your sources properly. This not only gives credit where it’s due but also strengthens your argument by indicating the breadth of your research. Ensure you follow the required citation style (APA, MLA, Chicago, etc.).
Revise for Clarity and Coherence: After finishing your initial draft, revise your work. Check for clarity, coherence, and consistency of argument. Ensure each paragraph has a clear focus, and that the paragraphs flow smoothly from one idea to the next.
Proofread: Proofread your paper for grammar, punctuation, and spelling errors. Such errors can distract from the content and undermine your credibility as a writer. Reading your paper aloud or having someone else read it can help catch errors you might have missed.
Seek Feedback: Before finalizing your paper, consider seeking feedback from your professor, peers, or a writing center tutor. They can provide valuable perspectives and suggestions for improvement that you might not have considered.
Write in a Formal Academic Style: Your paper should be written in a formal academic style. Avoid slang, colloquialisms, and overly complex language. Be clear, concise, and precise in your expression.
Avoid Plagiarism: Plagiarism is a serious academic offense. Ensure that all ideas and words that are not your own are properly cited. When in doubt, it’s better to over-cite than to under-cite.
Stay Objective: A good history paper is objective and does not include personal opinions or biases. It relies on facts and evidence, and presents balanced arguments. Stick to the evidence and avoid emotional language.
Be Original: Strive for originality in your argument and interpretation. While your topic might not be entirely new, your perspective on it can be. Don’t be afraid to challenge established interpretations if you have evidence to support your argument.
Use Primary Sources Wisely: Primary sources are invaluable in historical research. However, remember that they should be used to support your argument, not to construct it. Your analysis and interpretation of the sources are what matters.
Enjoy the Process: Finally, remember to enjoy the process. Writing a research paper is not just an academic exercise, but a journey into the past. It’s a chance to learn, explore, and contribute to our understanding of history.

In conclusion, writing a best history research paper requires careful planning, thorough research, clear writing, and detailed revision. However, the process can be highly rewarding, leading to new insights and a deeper understanding of history. These tips provide a comprehensive guide to help you craft a top-notch history research paper. Remember, history is a continually evolving dialogue, and your paper is your chance to join the conversation.

Custom Writing Services

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In-Depth Research: Our writers are committed to conducting meticulous and comprehensive research to gather relevant information and provide insightful perspectives for your paper.
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Top Quality: Quality is not negotiable for us. We strive to provide superior writing services that align with the highest academic standards.
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In conclusion, iResearchNet offers a comprehensive suite of academic writing services designed to support students in their academic journey. From expert writers and custom written works to in-depth research and timely delivery, iResearchNet is equipped to handle any history research paper with excellence and dedication. We believe in delivering high-quality, original, and impactful research papers that can elevate your academic experience and success. So why wait? Avail of iResearchNet’s services today and experience the relief and satisfaction of handing in a top-quality history research paper.

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U.S. News Stories and Newspapers

Finding a Specific Newspaper
Browsing U.S. Newspapers

Historical Newspapers: Searchable Online Collections

Historical newspapers: individual titles online, historical magazines.

New York City News
Television, Radio, and Broadcast Transcripts
Media Coverage and Criticism
Historical Newspapers (ProQuest) This link opens in a new window Search the PDF full text and image archives of more than 100 major U.S. and African American newspapers. Highlights include: Atlanta Constitution (1868-1945), Atlanta Daily World (1931-2003), Baltimore Afro-American (1893-1988), Chicago Tribune (1849-1986), Christian Science Monitor (1908-2004), Los Angeles Times (1881-1995), New York Amsterdam News (1922-1993), Pittsburgh Courier (1911-2002), The Chicago Defender (1910 - 1975), The New York Times (1851-2014), The New York Tribune (1841-1922), The New York Tribune (1900-1910), San Francisco Chronicle (1869-1922), The Wall Street Journal (1889-2000), The Washington Post (1877-2001), St. Petersburg Times / Tampa Bay Times (1901-2009), Korea Times (1956-2016)
America's Historical Newspapers This link opens in a new window America's Historical Newspapers includes articles from local and regional American and Hispanic American newspapers from all 50 states. Coverage dates from 1690 to the early 20th century. Articles have been scanned as PDFs and include images and advertisements, and are full text searchable.
Nineteenth Century Collections Online (Gale) This link opens in a new window Nineteenth Century Collections Online is a multi-year global digitization and publishing program focusing on primary source collections of the nineteenth century, with archives releasing incrementally. ** The database includes the collections Asia and the West: Diplomacy and Cultural Exchange; British Politics & Society; British Theatre, Music, and Literature: High and Popular Culture; Children's Literature and Childhood; Europe and Africa: Commerce, Christianity, Civilization, and Conquest; European Literature, 1790-1840: The Corvey Collection; Mapping the World: Maps and Travel Literature; Photography: The World Through the Lens; Religion, Society, Spirituality, and Reform; Science, Technology, and Medicine: 1780-1925, Parts I and II; And Women: Transnational Networks. **
Accessible Archives This link opens in a new window NYU's subscription provides the full text of several periodicals (and a few publicly available books). It is particularly strong on African American and abolitionist newspapers, the history of the United States before Reconstruction, and the campaign for women's suffrage in the United States.
Chronicling America: Library of Congress Allows you to view newspaper pages from 1880 to 1910 from the following states: California, District of Columbia, Florida, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, Texas, Utah, and Virginia.

For each of these newspapers, you'll find full page and article images with searchable full text. Each newspaper collection includes digital reproductions providing access to every page from every available issue.

Historical New York Times Date Coverage: 1851-2005.
Historical Los Angeles Times Date Coverage: 1881-1986.
Historical Washington Post Date Coverage: 1877-1992.
Historical Chicago Tribune Date Coverage: 1849-1986.
Historical Wall Street Journal Date Coverage:1889-1991.
Historical Atlanta Constitution Date Coverage: 1868-1942.
Historical Christian Science Monitor Date Coverage: 1908-1995.
Historical Atlanta Daily World Date Coverage: 1931-2003.
Historical Baltimore Afro-American Date Coverage: 1893-1988.
Historical Pittsburgh Courier Date Coverage: 1911-2002. EXCLUDES 1913-1921.
Historical Chicago Defender Date Coverage: 1910-1975.
Historical New York Amsterdam News Date Coverage: 1922-1993
Historical San Francisco Chronicle Date Coverage: 1865-1922
Magazine Archive This link opens in a new window This database provides archival access to the following magazines: U. S. News & World Report, Time, Sports Illustrated, People, Life, Fortune, Forbes, Esquire, Businessweek, Architectural Digest, Maclean's, The Atlantic, Vanity Fair, and Moment. Users can search across these magazines, or select individual titles.
HarpWeek This link opens in a new window HarpWeek provides contains the backfile of Harper's Weekly from the years 1857-1912. Articles are available to print or download in full-text, PDF format.
American Periodicals Series Online This link opens in a new window Search a selection of periodicals that first began publishing between 1740 and 1900, including special interest and general magazines, literary and professional journals, children's and women's magazines, and many other historically-significant periodicals.
The Nation Archive Premium Edition (EBSCO) This link opens in a new window The Nation Archive Premium Edition contains indexing, abstracting, and full text for the complete archive of The Nation, beginning with its first issue in 1865 all the way to the present. The Nation is America’s oldest weekly magazine and one if its premier journals of opinion since its inception in 1865.
Readers' Guide Retrospective (EBSCO) This link opens in a new window Provides indexing of the most popular general-interest periodicals published in the United States and reflects the history of 20th century America.Dates of coverage: 1890-1982. Use the Readers' Guide Full Text for 1983 forward.
Harper's This link opens in a new window Harper's Magazine is a news and general interest monthly magazine, featuring news, essays, fiction, and more. The archive includes coverage from the beginning of publication in 1850 to present day issues.
Opinion Archives This link opens in a new window OpinionArchives provides access to commentaries and opinion pieces on topics related to politics, culture, and the arts. These titles include American Spectator, Americas Quarterly, Commentary, Commonweal, Dissent, Harpers Magazine, The National Review, The New Republic, Washington Examiner, and The New Yorker. Coverage extends as far back as 1850.
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Last Updated: Jul 31, 2024 1:12 PM
URL: https://guides.nyu.edu/usnews

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Home | California History Section | California History: Research Guides

California History: Research Guides

Are you stumped? We can help! Along with our how-to guides and our general guide to the collection, the California History Room librarians have spent hundreds of hours plumbing our collections to develop research guides for specific California topics. You can see our current guides below. If you cannot find a guide to the topic you are researching or if you still have questions, please consider using our library databases or contacting us .

General Topics

African Americans in California (PDF)
Art and Artists of California (PDF)
Chinese Americans in California (PDF)
Fiction in California (PDF)
Fires and Firefighters in California (PDF)
German Americans in California (PDF)
Highways and Byways in California (PDF)
Horses and Horse Racing in California (PDF)
Images of California (PDF)
Japanese Americans in California (PDF)
Jewish Americans in California (PDF)
Land grants in California (PDF)
Latin Americans in California (PDF)
Medicine in California (PDF)
Mining in California (PDF)
Native Americans in California (PDF)
Oddities in California (PDF)
Oil in California (PDF)
Poetry in California (PDF)
Portuguese Americans in California (PDF)
Railroads in California (PDF)
Remote Access: Vital Statistics and Indexes (PDF)
Ships and Shipping in California (PDF)
Sutter’s Fort Character Guide (PDF)
Water in California (PDF)
Wildflowers in California (PDF)
Wine in California (PDF)
Women in California (PDF)
1960’s in California (PDF)

How-To and Collection Guides

Guide to the collection (PDF)
Basic Search Guide (PDF)
Advanced Search Tips and Tricks (PDF)
Online Remote Research Options (PDF)
Research in Person (PDF)

California Genealogy

Federal Census Resources (PDF)
Genealogy resources by date (PDF)
Immigration and Naturalization Resources (PDF)
1852 California State Census Resources (PDF)

Local History

Alameda County (PDF)
Alpine County (PDF)
Amador County (PDF)
Butte County (PDF)
Calaveras County (PDF)
Colusa County (PDF)
Contra Costa County (PDF)
Del Norte County (PDF)
El Dorado County (PDF)
Fresno County (PDF)
Humboldt County (PDF)
Imperial County (PDF)
Inyo County (PDF)
Kern County (PDF)
Kings County (PDF)
Lassen County (PDF)
Madera County (PDF)
Marin County (PDF)
Mendocino County (PDF)
Merced County (PDF)
Modoc County (PDF)
Monterey County (PDF)
Orange County (PDF)
Placer County (PDF)
Sacramento County (PDF)
San Francisco County (PDF)
San Mateo County (PDF)
Santa Barbara (PDF)
Santa Cruz County (PDF)
Shasta County (PDF)
Sierra County (PDF)
Siskiyou County (PDF)
Stanislaus County (PDF)
Trinity County (PDF)
Tulare County (PDF)
Tuolumne County (PDF)
Ventura County (PDF)
Yolo County (PDF)
Yuba County (PDF)
Auburn (PDF)
Bakersfield (PDF)
Calexico (PDF)
Carmel-by-the-Sea (PDF)
Crescent City (PDF)
Fair Oaks (PDF)
Folsom (PDF)
Fort Bragg (PDF)
Modesto (PDF)
Newport Beach (PDF)
Placerville (PDF)
Redwood City (PDF)
Richmond (PDF)
Sacramento building research (PDF)
Sacramento City (PDF)
San Francisco (PDF)
San Francisco earthquake (1906) (PDF)
Watsonville (PDF)
Weaverville (PDF)
Visalia (PDF)

Online Librarian

Many of our materials may not be online but our staff are. Reach out to us about arranging a 30-minute video research appointment with one of our librarians to:

Look at undigitized primary sources
Check in-house card files
Discuss remote access options, such as low-resolution scanning

Sessions must be arranged in advance and are not meant to replace other access options such as visiting us or placing inter-library loans. Our video session limit is 30 minutes per patron per week. Up to 5 items may be requested per video call. The State Library reserves the right to refuse to show or scan materials that may be damaged by the process or are otherwise restricted.

Library of Congress
Research Guides
Newspapers & Current Periodicals

U.S. Newspaper Collections at the Library of Congress

Historical newspapers.

Introduction
How to Find a Newspaper
U.S. Newspapers Currently Received

Chronological Index to Microfilm (1940-1989)

Alabama to Guam

Hawaii to Louisiana

Maine to Nevada

New Hampshire to Puerto Rico

Rhode Island to Wyoming

Connecticut
District of Columbia
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
West Virginia
Special Newspaper Collections
Reference Sources
Additional Resources Online

This section of the guide provides an overview of the historical U.S. newspaper collections held by the Serial & Government Publications Division and served in the Newspaper & Current Periodical Reading Room (NCPRR) at the Library of Congress. "Historical," for the purposes of this guide, is defined as newspapers published during the 17th through 20th centuries.

The American newspaper collection spans 1690-present, and titles are held in microfilm, print, and/or digital formats. The Division does not have every U.S. newspaper ever published, but there are newspapers from every state and territory, including over 9,000 individual titles. Scroll down or click on the section linked below to explore the collections:

Print Collections

Microfilm collections.

Lists by Century

Digital Collections

Historical newspapers research guides, authenticating old newspapers.

Contact us using our Ask a Librarian service to help you identify which titles are available from a certain time and place, and in which format(s). If we do not have the newspaper you need, we can help you locate it elsewhere.

The historical newspaper collection in original print format is comprised of 37,954 bound volumes, 18,979 rare 18th-century volumes, and over 50,000 individual portfolio issues. See the "Historical Newspaper Lists by Century" section below for lists of titles organized by place and available dates. Additionally, newspapers are cataloged by title in the Library of Congress Online Catalog . Collection materials must be requested through a paper call slip in the Newspaper & Current Periodical Reading Room, or requested in advance of a visit by using our Ask a Librarian service. Please note that, when available, microfilm or digital formats will be served in place of original print out of concern for the long-term preservation of the collections. Newspapers in original print format are not available for Interlibrary Loan.

Original Print Bound Volumes Collection

This collection is comprised of original print newspaper issues bound in volumes that are held in either remote storage or on-site in the Serial and Government Publications Division. For detailed holdings of bound newspapers, including location information, please search the Library of Congress Online Catalog . Items in remote storage are indicated by "Ft. Meade" in the call number. To request bound newspapers from remote storage , be sure to Ask a Librarian in advance to confirm holdings.

Portfolio Collection

The U.S. newspaper portfolio collection is comprised of individual, original print format newspaper issues and stored in large archival folders (portfolios). The Division holds portfolio collections for most U.S. states. To search the Library of Congress Online Catalog for a list of portfolios, conduct an Advanced Search , entering the state and "portfolio" in the search boxes, like this:

Narrow your search further by adding limits such as "Location in the Library" (Newspaper & Current Periodical) and "Type of Material" (Periodical or Newspaper). Call numbers generally have "X" at the end as an indication. ex: "Newspaper 8829-X: portfolio

The Division's newspaper microfilm collection consists of over 785,000 microfilm reels. Some of the most requested titles are immediately available in the Newspaper & Current Periodical Reading Room (see below). The vast majority of the collection is held in closed stacks and must be requested by filling out a paper call slip, indicating the call number, title, and dates of issues required and submitting the request at the Circulation Desk. Delivery time is generally within 30 minutes.

The lists below provide merely a starting point for finding out which titles and dates are available, and the lists are particularly useful for finding out which newspapers are available from a certain city or state. Search the Library of Congress Online Catalog for specific titles. Dates of holdings are noted by the "Older Receipts" at the bottom of catalog records, and titles will have a call number indicated by "Newspaper Microfilm ---."

Self-Service Microfilm Collection

The following newspapers are readily available in the reading room in the self-service microfilm cabinets. These titles do not circulate through interlibrary loan.

Newspaper Title	Available Dates
	May 17, 1837 - November 30, 2017
	April 23, 1849 - December 31, 2017
	January 1924 - November 29, 2019
	January 1785 - November 30, 2019
	November 3, 1822 - November 24, 2019
	September 1851 - February 28, 2019
	November 7, 1860 - February 28, 2018
	January 16, 1865 - April 30, 2018
	July 8, 1889 - October 31, 2018
	December 16, 1852 - August 7, 1981
News Index	1850, 1870, 1880, 1894 - 1973
	December 6, 1877 - February 28, 2018

This resource lists U.S. newspapers from 1940-1980 on microfilm available for use at the Library of Congress. All entries are alphabetically arranged by state abbreviation, city, and title.

Access the Chronological Index to Microfilm (1940-1989) Unless noted as a partial file, all holdings are assumed to be complete for the years listed. Because newspaper titles typically vary over time, the Chronological Indexes generally display the title used by a newspaper for the majority of a given decade. Microfilm control numbers have been listed to aid researchers in accurately requesting material.
1940-1949 U.S. Newspapers
1950-1959 U.S. Newspapers
1960-1969 U.S. Newspapers
1970-1979 U.S. Newspapers
1980-1989 U.S. Newspapers
Microfilm Exceptions Report - newspapers with name changes, mergers, strikes, place of publication changes, etc.

Newspaper Lists by Century

18th Century
19th and 20th Century

18th Century American Newspapers

The 18th-Century American Newspapers in the Library of Congress website reflects the Library's holdings of pre-1801 American newspapers as of February 2, 1996. The list consists of individual newspaper titles arranged alphabetically by state, city, and newspaper title. The numbers in the title index and the name index (including printers, publishers, and editors) refer to entry numbers, not page numbers. This list also contains print and microform holdings.

Access the 18th-Century American Newspapers in the Library of Congress website

This list is meant as a starting point in research and does not necessarily reflect the Library's current holdings. Please refer to the Library of Congress Online Catalog for the most up-to-date holdings information.

19th and 20th Century Original Print Bound Volumes

These lists, also linked from the left-side navigation panel, is based on an inventory of Library of Congress holdings that was conducted in Summer 1998. Arranged alphabetically by state, then city, the lists include the bound volume control number, total volume count, and summary holdings for each title. The lists do not provide detailed holdings; the dates listed may have unspecified missing issues.

This inventory is meant as a starting point in research and does not necessarily reflect all of the Library's current holdings. Please contact reference staff through Ask-a-Librarian to confirm holdings.

An ever-growing amount of historical newspapers are being digitized, though not nearly every newspaper ever published has or will be digitized. Digitization is an important preservation measure and it improves discoverability of newspaper content: digitized newspapers are typically word-searchable, while microfilm is not (it must be examined page by page). Some historical digital newspapers will be found freely available online, while others are available through subscription resources. Checking to see if a newspaper has been digitized will often require consulting several different sources.

Chronicling America
Digital Collections on LOC.gov
On-site Access Only

There are ongoing efforts to digitize and provide free access to historic newspapers through the Library of Congress website. Digital newspaper collections include the following resources:

The Library provides access to many subscription-based digital resources that are available to researchers while they are on-site. See this list of historical newspaper databases in the Library's E-resources Online Catalog . Listed below are a few of the most commonly used databases for researching historical newspapers. The description indicates whether a database is limited to "On-Site Only," or if there is "Free Access" available. There are several public computer terminals in the reading room, or bring your own device and connect to the Library's Wifi. View the Library's Terms of Use for its electronic resources.

The following Research Guides produced by the Serial and Government Publications Division provide more information on historical newspapers at the Library of Congress.

Some of the most frequently asked questions we receive in the NCPRR relate to authenticating old newspapers. Newspapers are an important aspect of a community's collective memory, and saving clippings or entire issues that cover significant happenings is a common behavior through time and place. It is exciting to come across an old newspaper in an attic or at a yard sale or auction!

While there are very few historical newspaper issues with significant monetary value, some retain important artifactual value. Although reference staff neither authenticates nor appraises items , we do provide information about a number of significant newspaper issues through "Information Circulars." These circulars were compiled by experts in the Serial & Government Publications Division and have been formatted into a guide: Original or Reprint? A Guide to Noteworthy Newspaper Issues .

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v.5(4); 2013

The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and projections for the future

J. van bavel.

Centre for Sociological Research / Family & Population Studies (FaPOS), Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Leuven, Parkstraat 45 bus 3601, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.

At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between the world regions. Next, the mechanisms behind unprecedented population growth are explained and plausible scenarios for future developments are discussed. Crucial for the long term trend will be the rate of decline of the number of births per woman, called total fertility. Improvements in education, reproductive health and child survival will be needed to speed up the decline of total fertility, particularly in Africa. But in all scenarios, world population will continue to grow for some time due to population momentum. Finally, the paper outlines the debate about the consequences of the population explosion, involving poverty and food security, the impact on the natural environment, and migration flows.

Key words: Fertility, family planning, world population, population growth, demographic transition, urbanization, population momentum, population projections.

Introduction

In the year 1900, Belgium and the Philippines had more or less the same population, around 7 million people. By the year 2000, the population of the Western European monarchy had grown to 10 million citizens, while the South East Asian republic at the turn of the century already counted 76 million citizens. The population of Belgium has since then exceeded 11 million citizens, but it is unlikely that this number will rise to 12 million by the year 2050. The population of the Philippines on the other hand will continue to grow to a staggering 127 million citizens by 2050, according to the demographic projections of the United Nations (UN 2013).

The demographic growth rate of the Philippines around the turn of the century (2% a year) has already created enormous challenges and is clearly unsustainable in the long term: such growth implies a doubling of the population every 35 years as a consequence of which there would be 152 million people by 2035, 304 million by 2070, and so on. Nobody expects such a growth to actually occur. This contribution will discuss the more realistic scenarios for the future.

Even the rather modest Belgian demographic growth rate around the turn of this century (0.46%) is not sustainable in the long term. In any case, it exceeds by far the average growth rate of the human species (homo sapiens sapiens) that arose in Africa some 200.000 years ago. Today, earth is inhabited by some 7 billion people. To achieve this number in 200.000 years, the average yearly growth rate over this term should have been around 0.011% annually (so 11 extra human beings per 1.000 human beings already living on earth). The current Belgian growth rate would imply that our country would have grown to 7 billion in less than 1500 years.

The point of this story is that the current growth numbers are historically very exceptional and untenable in the long term. The demographic growth rates are indeed on the decline worldwide and this paper will attempt to explain some of the mechanisms behind that process. That doesn’t change the fact, however, that the growth remains extraordinarily high and the decline in some regions very slow. This is especially the case in Sub Saharan Africa. In absolute numbers, the world population will continue to grow anyway for quite some time as a result of demographic inertia. This too will be further clarified in this paper.

The evolution of the world population in numbers

In order to be sustainable, the long term growth rate of the population should not differ much from 0%. That is because a growth rate exceeding 0% has exponential implications. In simple terms: if a combination of birth and growth figures only appears to cause a modest population growth initially, then this seems to imply an explosive growth in the longer term.

Thomas R. Malthus already acquired this point of view by the end of the 18th century. In his famous “Essay on the Principle of Population” (first edition in 1789), Malthus argues justly that in time the growth of the population will inevitably slow down, either by an increase of the death rate or by a decrease of the birth rate. On a local scale, migration also plays an important role.

It is no coincidence that Malthus’ essay appeared in England at the end of the 18th century. After all, the population there had started to grow at a historically unseen rate. More specifically the proletariat had grown immensely and that worried the intellectuals and the elite. Year after year, new demographic growth records were recorded.

At the beginning of the 19th century, the number of 1 billion people was exceeded for the first time in history. Subsequently growth accelerated and the number of 2 billion people was already surpassed around 1920. By 1960, another billion had been added, in 40 instead of 120 years time. And it continued to go even faster: 4 billion by 1974, 5 billion by 1987, 6 billion by 1999 and 7 billion in 2011 ( Fig. 1 ).

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This will certainly not stop at the current 7 billion. According to the most recent projections by the United Nations, the number of 8 billion will probably be exceeded by 2025, and around 2045 there will be more than 9 billion people 1 . The further one looks into the future, the more uncertain these figures become, and with demography on a world scale one must always take into account a margin of error of a couple of tens of millions. But according to all plausible scenarios, the number of 9 billion will be exceeded by 2050.

Demographic growth was and is not equally distributed around the globe. The population explosion first occurred on a small scale and with a relatively moderate intensity in Europe and America, more or less between 1750 and 1950. From 1950 on, a much more substantial and intensive population explosion started to take place in Asia, Latin America and Africa ( Fig. 2 ). Asia already represented over 55% of the world population in 1950 with its 1.4 billion citizens and by the year 2010 this had increased to 4.2 billion people or 60%. Of those people, more than 1.3 billion live in China and 1.2 billion in India, together accounting for more than one third of the world population.

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In the future, the proportion of Asia will come down and that of Africa will increase. Africa was populated by some 230 million people around 1950, or 9% of the world population. In 2010 there were already more than 1 billion Africans or 15% of the world population. According to UN projections, Africa will continue to grow at a spectacular rate up to 2.2 billion inhabitants in 2050 or 24% of the world population. The proportion of Europe, on the other hand, is evolving in the opposite direction: from 22% of the world population in 1950, over 11% in 2010 to an expected mere 8% in 2050. The population of Latin America has grown and is growing rapidly in absolute terms, but because of the strong growth in Asia and especially Africa, the relative proportion of the Latin American population is hardly increasing (at most from 6 to 8%). The proportion of the population in North America, finally, has decreased slightly from 7 to 5% of the world population.

What these figures mainly come down to in practice is that the population size in especially the poor countries is increasing at an unprecedented rate. At the moment, more than 5.7 billion people, or more than 80% of humanity, are living in what the UN categorise as a developing country. By 2050, that number would – according to the projections – have increased to 8 billion people or 86% of the world population. Within this group of developing countries, the group of least developed countries, the poorest countries so to speak, is growing strongly: from 830 million now, up to an expected 1.7 billion in 2050. This comprises very poor countries such as Somalia, Sudan, Liberia, Niger or Togo in Africa; Afghanistan, Bangladesh or Myanmar in Asia; and Haiti in the Caribbean.

The growth of the world population goes hand in hand with global urbanisation: while around the year 1950 less than 30% of people lived in the cities, this proportion has increased to more than 50%. It is expected that this proportion will continue to grow to two thirds around 2050. Latin America is the most urbanised continent (84%), closely followed by North America (82%) and at a distance by Europe (73%). The population density has increased intensely especially in the poorest countries: from 9 people per square km in 1950 to 40 people per square km in 2010 (an increase by 330%) in the poorest countries, while this figure in the rich countries increased from 15 to 23 people per square km (a 50% growth). In Belgium, population density is 358 people per square km and in the Netherlands 400 people per square km; in Rwanda this number is 411, in the Palestinian regions 666 and in Bangladesh an astonishing 1050.

Although the world population will continue to grow in absolute figures for some time – a following paragraph will explain why – the growth rate in percentages in all large world regions is decreasing. In the richer countries, the yearly growth rate has already declined to below 0.3%. On a global scale, the yearly growth rate of more than 2% at the peak around 1965 decreased to around 1% now. A further decline to less than 0.5% by 2050 is expected. In the world’s poorest countries, the demographic growth is still largest: at present around 2.2%. For these countries, a considerable decrease is expected, but the projected growth rate would not fall below 1.5% before 2050. This means, as mentioned above, a massive growth of the population in absolute figures in the world’s poorest countries.

Causes of the explosion: the demographic transition

The cause of, first, the acceleration and, then, the deceleration in population growth is the modern demographic transition: an increasingly growing group of countries has experienced a transition from relatively high to low birth and death rates, or is still in the process of experiencing this. It is this transition that is causing the modern population explosion. Figure 3 is a schematic and strongly simplified representation of the modern demographic transition.

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In Europe, the modern demographic transition started to take place in the middle of the 18th century. Until then, years of extremely high death rates were quite frequent. Extremely high crisis mortality could be the consequence of epidemic diseases or failed harvests and famine, or a combination of both. As a consequence of better hygiene and a better transportation infrastructure (for one, the canals and roads constructed by Austria in the 18th century), amongst other reasons, crisis mortality became less and less frequent. Later on in the 19th century, child survival began to improve. Vaccination against smallpox for example led to an eradication of the disease, with the last European smallpox pandemic dating from 1871. This way, not only the years of crisis mortality became less frequent, but also the average death rate decreased, from an average 30 deaths per 1000 inhabitants in the beginning of the 19th century to around 15 deaths per 1000 citizens by the beginning of the 20th century. In the meantime, the birth rate however stayed at its previous, high level of 30-35 births per 1000 inhabitants.

The death rate went down but the birth rate still didn’t: this caused a large growth in population. It was only near the end of the nineteenth century (a bit earlier in some countries, later in others) that married couples in large numbers started to reduce their number of children. By the middle of the 20th century, the middle class ideal of a two children household had gained enormous popularity and influence. The reaction by the Church, for example in the encyclical Humanae Vitae (1968), came much too late to bring this evolution to a halt.

As a consequence of widespread family planning – made even easier in the sixties by modern hormonal contraceptives – the birth rate started declining as well and the population tended back towards zero growth. Nowadays the end of this transition process has been more than achieved in all European countries, because the fertility has been below replacement level for several decades (the replacement level is the fertility level that would in the long term lead to a birth rate identical to the death rate, if there would be no migration) 2 .

That the population explosion in the developing countries since the second half of the 20th century was so much more intense and massive, is a consequence of the fact that in those countries, the process of demographic transition occurred to a much more extreme extent and on a much larger scale. On the one hand, mortality decreased faster than in Europe. After all, in Europe the decline in mortality was the result of a gradual understanding of the importance of hygiene and afterwards the development of new medical insights. These insights of course already existed at the start of the demographic transitions in Asian, Latin American and African regions, whereby the life expectancy in these regions could grow faster. On the other hand, the total fertility – the average number of children per woman – at the start of the transition was a lot higher in many poor regions than it initially was in Europe. For South Korea, Brasil and the Congo, for example, the total fertility rate shortly after the Second World War (at the start of their demographic transition) is estimated to be 6 children per woman. In Belgium this number was close to 4.5 children per woman by the middle of the nineteenth century. In some developing regions, the fertility and birth rate decreased moderately to very fast, but in other regions this decline took off at an exceptionally sluggish pace – this will be further explained later on. As a consequence of these combinations of factors, in most of these countries the population explosion was much larger than it had been in most European countries.

Scenarios for the future

Nonetheless, the process of demographic transition has reached its second phase in almost all countries in the world, namely the phase of declining fertility and birth rates. In a lot of Asian and Latin American countries, the entire transition has taken place and the fertility level is around or below the replacement level. South Korea for example is currently at 1.2 children per woman and is one of the countries with the lowest fertility levels in the world. In Iran and Brasil the fertility level is currently more or less equal to Belgium’s, that is 1.8 to 1.9 children per woman.

Crucial to the future evolution of the population is the further evolution of the birth rate. Scenarios for the future evolution of the size and age of the population differ according to the hypotheses concerning the further evolution of the birth rate. The evolution of the birth rate is in turn dependent on two things: the further evolution of the total fertility rate (the average number of children per woman) in the first place and population momentum in the second. The latter is a concept I will later on discuss in more detail. The role of the population momentum is usually overlooked in the popular debates, but is of utmost importance in understanding the further evolution of the world population. Population momentum is the reason why we are as good as certain that the world population will continue to grow for a while. The other factor, the evolution of the fertility rate, is much more uncertain but of critical importance in the long term. The rate at which the further growth of the world population can be slowed down is primarily dependent on the extent to which the fertility rates will continue to decline. I will further elaborate on this notion in the next paragraph. After that, I will clarify the notion of population momentum.

Declining fertility

Fertility is going down everywhere in the world, but it’s going down particularly slowly in Africa. A further decline remains uncertain there. Figure 4 shows the evolution per world region between 1950 and 2010, plus the projected evolution until 2050. The numbers before 2010 illustrate three things. First of all, on all continents there is a decline going on. Secondly, this decline is not equal everywhere. And thirdly: the differences between the continents remain large in some cases. Asia and Latin America have seen a similar decline in fertility: from 5.9 children per woman in 1950 to 2.5 at the start of the 21st century. Europe and North America had already gone through the largest part of their demographic transition by the 1950’s. Their fertility level has been below replacement levels for years. Africa has indeed seen a global decrease of fertility, but the average number of children is still at an alarmingly high level: the fertility merely decreased from 6.7 to 5.1 children per woman.

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These continental averages hide a huge underlying diversity in fertility paths. Figure 5 attempts to illustrate this for a number of countries. Firstly let us consider two African countries: the Congo and Niger. As was often the case in Europe in the 19th century, fertility was first on the rise before it started declining. In the Congo this decrease was more extensive, from around 6 children in 1980 to 4 children per woman today, and a further decline to just below three is expected in the next thirty years. Niger is the country where the fertility level remains highest: from 7 it first rose to an average of just below 8 children per woman in the middle of the 1980’s, before decreasing to just above 6.5 today. For the next decades a decline to 4 children per woman is expected. But that is not at all certain: it is dependent on circumstances that will be further explained in a moment. The demographic transition is after all not a law of nature but the result of human actions and human institutions.

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Around 1950, Pakistan and Iran had more or less the same fertility level as Niger, but both countries have seen a considerable decline in the meantime. In Pakistan the level decreased slowly to the current level of 3 children per woman. In Iran the fertility decreased more abruptly, faster and deeper to below the replacement level – Iran today has one of the lowest fertility levels in the world, and a further decline is expected. The Iranian Revolution of 1978 played a crucial role in the history of Iran (Abassi-Shavazi et al., 2009): it brought better education and health care, two essential ingredients for birth control.

Brasil was also one of the countries with very high fertility in the 1950’s – higher than the Congo, for example. The decrease started earlier than in Iran but happened more gradually. Today both countries have the same total fertility, below the replacement level.

Child mortality, education and family planning

Which factors cause the average number of children to go down? The literature concerning explanations for the decrease in fertility is vast and complex, but two factors emerge as crucial in this process: education and child survival.

Considering child survival first: countries combining intensive birth control with very high child mortality are simply non-existent. The statistical association between the level of child mortality and fertility is very tight and strong: in countries with high child mortality, fertility is high, and vice versa. This statistical correlation is very strong because the causal relation goes in both directions; with quick succession of children and therefore a lot of children to take care for, the chances of survival for the infants are lower than in those families with only a limited number of children to take care of – this is a fortiori the case where infrastructure for health care is lacking. A high fertility level thus contributes to a high child mortality. And in the other direction: where survival chances of children improve, the fertility will go down because even those households with a lower number of children have increasing confidence in having descendants in the long term.

It is crucial to understand that the decline in child mortality in the demographic transition always precedes the decline in fertility. Men, women and families cannot be convinced of the benefits of birth control if they don’t have confidence in the survival chances of their children. Better health care is therefore essential, and a lack of good health care is one of the reasons for a persistently high fertility in a country like Niger.

Education is another factor that can cause a decline in fertility. This is probably the most important factor, not just because education is an important humanitarian goal in itself (apart from the demographic effects), but also because with education one can kill two birds with one stone: education causes more birth control but also better child survival (recently clearly demonstrated by Smith-Greenaway (2013), which in its turn will lead to better birth control. The statistical correlation between level of education and level of fertility is therefore very strong.

Firstly, education enhances the motivation for birth control: if parents invest in the education of their children, they will have fewer children, as has been demonstrated. Secondly, education promotes a more forward-looking lifestyle: it will lead people to think on a somewhat longer term, to think about tomorrow, next week and next month, instead of living for the day. This attitude is necessary for effective birth control. Thirdly, education also increases the potential for effective contraception, because birth control doesn’t just happen, especially not when efficient family planning facilities are not or hardly accessible or when there are opposing cultural or family values.

The influence of education on birth control has been demonstrated in a vast number of studies (James et al., 2012). It starts with primary education, but an even larger effect can be attained by investment in secondary education (Cohen, 2008). In a country like Niger, for example, women who didn’t finish primary school have on average 7.8 children. Women who did finish primary school have on average 6.7 children, while women who finished secondary school “only” have 4.6 children ( Fig. 6 ). The fertility of Niger would be a lot lower if more women could benefit from education. The tragedy of that country is that too many people fall in the category of those without a degree of primary school, with all its demographic consequences.

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One achieves with education therefore a plural beneficial demographic effect on top of the important objective of human emancipation in itself. All this is of course not always true but depends on which form of “education”; I assume that we’re talking about education that teaches people the knowledge and skills to better take control of their own destiny.

It is one thing to get people motivated to practice birth control but obtaining actual effective contraception is quite another matter. Information concerning the efficient use of contraceptives and increasing the accessibility and affordability of contraceptives can therefore play an important role. There are an estimated 215 million women who would want to have contraception but don’t have the means (UNFPA, 2011). Investments in services to help with family planning are absolutely necessary and could already have great results in this group of women. But it’s no use to put the cart before the horse: if there is no intention to practice birth control, propaganda for and accessibility of contraception will hardly have any effect, as was demonstrated in the past. In Europe the lion’s share of the decline in fertility was realized with traditional methods, before the introduction of hormonal contraception in the sixties. There is often a problem of lack of motivation for birth control on the one hand, as a result of high child mortality and low schooling rates, and a lack of power in women who may be motivated to limit fertility but are confronted with male resistance on the other (Blanc, 2011; Do and Kurimoto, 2012). Empowerment of women is therefore essential, and education can play an important role in that process as well.

Population momentum

Even if all the people would suddenly practice birth control much more than is currently considered possible, the world population would still continue to grow for a while. This is the consequence of population momentum, a notion that refers to the phenomenon of demographic inertia, comparable to the phenomenon of momentum and inertia in the field of physics. Demographic growth is like a moving train: even when you turn off the engine, the movement will continue for a little while.

The power and direction of population momentum is dependent on the age structure of the population. Compare the population pyramids of Egypt and Germany ( Fig. 7 ). The one for Egypt has a pyramidal shape indeed, but the one for Germany looks more like an onion. As a consequence of high birth rates in the previous decades, the largest groups of Egyptians are to be found below the age of forty; the younger, the more voluminous the generation. Even if the current and future generations of Egyptians would limit their fertility strongly (as is indeed the case), the birth rate in Egypt would still continue to rise for quite some time, just because year after year more and more potential mothers and fathers reach the fertile ages. Egypt therefore clearly has a growth momentum.

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Germany on the other hand has a negative or shrinking momentum: even if the younger generations of Germans would have a larger num ber of children than the generation of their own parents, the birth rate in Germany would still continue to decrease because fewer and fewer potential mothers and fathers reach the fertile ages.

The population momentum on a global scale is positive: even if fertility would decrease overnight to the replacement level, the world population would continue to grow with 40% (from 7 billion to 9.8 billion). Only the rich countries have a shrinking momentum, that is -3%. For Europe the momentum is -7%. The population momentum for the poorest countries in the world is +44%, that of Sub Saharan Africa +46% (Espenshade et al., 2011).

Consequences of the population explosion

The concerns about the consequences of population explosion started in the sixties. Milestone publications were the 1968 book The Population bomb by biologist Paul Ehrlich, the report of the Club of Rome from 1972 (The Limits to Growth) and the first World Population Plan of Action of the UN in 1974 among others.

In the world population debate, the general concerns involve mainly three interconnected consequences of the population explosion: 1) the growing poverty in the world and famine; 2) the exhaustion and pollution of natural resources essential to human survival; and 3) the migration pressure from the poor South to the rich North (Van Bavel, 2004).

Poverty and famine

The Malthusian line of thought continues to leave an important mark on the debate regarding the association between population growth and poverty: Malthus saw an excessive population growth as an important cause of poverty and famine. Rightfully this Malthusian vision has been criticized a lot. One must after all take the reverse causal relation into account as well: poverty and the related social circumstances (like a lack of education and good health care for children) contribute to high population growth as well.

Concerning famine: the production of food has grown faster since 1960 than the world population has, so nowadays the amount of food produced per person exceeds that which existed before the population explosion (Lam, 2011). The problem of famine isn’t as much an insufficient food production as it is a lack of fair distribution (and a lack of sustainable production, but that’s another issue). Often regions with famine have ecological conditions permitting sufficient production of food, provided the necessary investments in human resources and technology are made. The most important cause of famine is therefore not the population explosion. Famine is primarily a consequence of unequal distribution of food, which in turn is caused by social-economic inequality, lack of democracy and (civil) war.

Poverty and famine usually have mainly political and institutional causes, not demographic ones. The Malthusian vision, that sees the population explosion as the root of all evil, therefore has to be corrected ( Fig. 8 ). Rapid population growth can indeed hinder economical development and can thus pave the way for poverty. But this is only part of the story. As mentioned, poverty is also an underlying cause of rapid population growth. Social factors are at the base of both poverty and population growth. It’s those social factors that require our intervention: via investments in education and (reproductive) health care.

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Impact on the environment

The impact of the population explosion on the environment is unquestionably high, but the size of the population represents only one aspect of this. In this regard it can be useful to keep in mind the simple I=PAT scheme: the ecological footprint or impact on the environment (I) can be regarded as the product of the size of the population (P), the prosperity or consumption level (A for affluence) and the technology used (T). The relationship between each of these factors is more complex than the I=PAT scheme suggests, but in any case the footprint I of a population of 1000 people is for example dependent on how many of those people drive a car instead of a bike, and of the emission per car of the vehicle fleet concerned.

The ecological footprint of the world population has increased tremendously the past decades and the growth of the world population has obviously played an important role in this. The other factors in the I=PAT scheme have however played a relatively bigger role than the demographic factor P. The considerable increase in the Chinese ecological footprint of the past decades for example, is more a consequence of the increased consumption of meat than of population growth (Peters et al., 2007; Liu et al., 2008). The carbon dioxide emission of China grew by 82% between 1990 and 2003, while the population only increased by 11% in that same period. A similar story exists for India: the population grew by less than 23% between 1990 and 2003, while the emission of carbon dioxide increased by more than 83% (Chakravarty et al., 2009). The consumption of water and meat in the world is increasing more rapidly than the population 3 . The consumption of water per person is for example threefold higher in the US than in China (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2007). The African continent has at present the same number of inhabitants as Europe and North America together, over 1 billion. But the total ecological footprint of Europeans and Americans is many times higher than that of Africans (Ewing et al., 2010). Less than 18% of the world population is responsible for over 50% of the global carbon dioxide emission (Chakravarty et al., 2009).

If we are therefore concerned about the impact of the world population on the environment, we can do something about it immediately by tackling our own overconsumption: it’s something we can control and it has an immediate effect. In contrast, we know of the population growth that it will continue for some time anyhow, even if people in poor countries would practice much more birth control than we consider possible at present.

The population explosion has created an increasing migration pressure from the South to the North – and there is also important migration within and between countries in the South. But here as well the message is: the main responsibility doesn’t lie with the population growth but with economic inequality. The primary motive for migration was and is economic disparity: people migrate from regions with no or badly paid labour and a low standard of living to other regions, where one hopes to find work and a higher standard of living (Massey et al., 1993; Hooghe et al., 2008; IMO, 2013). Given the permanent population growth and economical inequality, a further increasing migration pressure is to be expected, irrespective of the national policies adopted.

It is sometimes expected that economic growth and increasing incomes in the South will slow down the migration pressure, but that remains to be seen. After all, it isn’t usually the poorest citizens in developing countries that migrate to rich countries. It is rather the affluent middle class in poor countries that have the means to send their sons and daughters to the North – an investment that can raise a lot of money via remittances to the families in the country of origin (IMO, 2013). There is after all a considerable cost attached to migration, in terms of money and human capital. Not everyone can bear those costs: to migrate you need brains, guts and money. With growing economic development in poor countries, an initial increase in migration pressure from those countries would be expected; the association between social-economic development and emigration is not linearly negative but follows the shape of a J turned upside down: more emigration at the start of economic development and a decline in emigration only with further development (De Haas, 2007).

7 Billion and counting… What is to be done?

A world population that needed some millennia before reaching the number of 1 billion people, but then added some billions more after 1920 in less than a century: the social, cultural, economic and ecological consequences of such an evolution are so complex that they can lead to fear and indifference at the same time. What kind of constructive reaction is possible and productive in view of such an enormous issue?

First of all: we need to invest in education and health care in Africa and elsewhere, not just as a humanitarian target per se but also because it will encourage the spread of birth control. Secondly, we need to encourage and support the empowerment of women, not just via education but also via services for reproductive health. This has triple desirable results for demographics: it will lead to more and more effective birth control, which in itself has a positive effect on the survival of children, which in turn again facilitates birth control.

Thirdly: because of the positive population momentum, the world population will certainly continue to grow in absolute figures, even though the yearly growth rate in percentages is already on the decline for several years. The biggest contribution we could make therefore, with an immediate favourable impact for ourselves and the rest of the world, is to change our consumption pattern and deal with the structural overconsumption of the world’s richest countries.

(1) Unless otherwise specified, all figures in this paragraph are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision, http://esa.un.org/wpp/ . Concerning projections for the future, I reported the results of the Medium Variant. Apart from this variant, there are also high and low variants (those relying on scenarios implying respectively an extremely high and extremely low growth of the population) and a variant in which the fertility rates are fixed at the current levels. It is expected that the actual number will be somewhere between the highest and lowest variant and will be closest to the medium variant. That’s why I only report this latter value.

(2) In demography, the term «fertility» refers to the actual number of live births per women. By contrast, the term fecundity refers to reproductive capacity (irrespective of actual childbearing), see Habbema et al. (2004).

(3) See http://www.unwater.org/water-cooperation-2013/water-cooperation/facts-and-figures

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Research Article

Rising slopes—Bibliometrics of mountain research 1900–2019

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – original draft

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliation Research Area Mountain Regions, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Centre for Mountain Studies, University of the Highlands and Islands, Perth, United Kingdom

Roles Data curation, Formal analysis

Affiliation Institute of Botany, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland

Affiliation Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

Affiliation Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

Affiliation Institute of Geology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

Affiliation Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft

Affiliation Institute of Botany, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

Wolfgang Gurgiser,
Martin Francis Price,
Irmgard Frieda Juen,
Christian Körner,
Michael Bahn,
Bernhard Gems,
Michael Meyer,
Kurt Nicolussi,
Ulrike Tappeiner,
Stefan Mayr

Published: August 25, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421
Peer Review
Reader Comments

Mountain areas provide essential resources for a significant proportion of the Earth’s population. This study presents the development of mountain research between 1900 and 2019 based on peer-reviewed articles in English listed in Web of Science TM (WOS). We analyzed the number of publications over time, journals and scientific categories, frequent topics, and geographical distributions based on 40 mountain ranges and authors’ countries as well as institutional contributions. From 1900–2019, 195k ±10% mountain research papers were published; over 50% from 2010–2019. While papers were published in more than 1000 different journals, indicating a wide range of disciplines engaged in mountain research, 94% of the papers were assigned to “Science & Technology”, only <5% to “Social Sciences” and “Arts & Humanities”. The most papers were written by researchers in the USA, followed by China. The number of papers per area or capita showed high variability across the investigated mountain ranges. Thus, geographically and disciplinarily more balanced research activities and better accessibility of knowledge about mountain regions are recommended.

Citation: Gurgiser W, Price MF, Juen IF, Körner C, Bahn M, Gems B, et al. (2022) Rising slopes—Bibliometrics of mountain research 1900–2019. PLoS ONE 17(8): e0273421. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421

Editor: Christian Huggel, Universitat Zurich Institut fur Volkswirtschaftslehre, SWITZERLAND

Received: March 31, 2022; Accepted: August 9, 2022; Published: August 25, 2022

Copyright: © 2022 Gurgiser et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: The bibliometric raw data used in this study are available from the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection ( https://clarivate.com/webofsciencegroup/solutions/web-of-science-core-collection/ ) but restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for the current study, and so are not publicly available. However, the raw data can be reproduced at any licensed institution by applying the search string presented in this study in the Web of ScienceTM advanced search field. All geographical data used for this study are publicly available from the Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment ( https://ilias.unibe.ch/goto_ilias3_unibe_cat_1000512.html ) or the Oak Ridge National Laboratory ( https://landscan.ornl.gov/ .) I can confirm that data access is available for any licensed institution.

Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

1. Introduction

Mountainous areas are impressive and important landscapes of our planet. Various criteria have been used to define mountains, all adopting degrees of ruggedness to decide whether terrain is considered mountainous (Körner et al., 2011, 2017; Price et al., 2019). Depending on the inclusion of only immediate forelands (with highly urbanized areas) or even of large forelands with mega cities, global mountain terrain outside Antarctica covers between 12.5 and 27% of the Earth’s land surface and has 0.5 to 1 billion inhabitants [ 1 ]. Due to their topographical complexity and climatic as well as geological variability over short distances, mountains are rich in biological and socio-cultural diversity and provide manifold ecosystem services crucial for people living both in mountains and lowlands [ 2 – 4 ]. For instance, around one quarter of the global population depends on fresh water, collected by mountains as atmospheric barriers and released from their huge natural reservoirs [ 5 ]. However, some of these ecosystem services are currently at risk from global warming: also hydrological systems may be affected, with changes in the mountain cryosphere influencing the water cycle up to a global scale; and melting permafrost destabilizes mountain slopes, increasing risks of associated hazards. Furthermore, reductions in seasonal snow cover and water availability will have economic impacts on tourism, agriculture and energy production [e.g. 6 – 9 ].

The knowledge of mountain systems and current threats is based on centuries of mountain research. Early institutionalizations of mountain research at regional levels included the establishment of a joint working group on glacier research by the Swiss Alpine Club (SAC) and the Swiss Society for Natural Sciences (SNG) in the 1870s [ 10 ] and initiatives of the German-Austrian Alpine Club in the early 20 th century. In 1913, the first journal (Revue de Géographie Alpine) focusing exclusively on research in the French and the entire European Alps was launched [ 11 , 12 ]. At larger scales, research and institutionalization driven by attempts to increase knowledge on mountain (eco)systems were stimulated in the 1970s by the inclusion of a project on “Impact of Human Activities on Mountain Ecosystems” within UNESCO’s “Man and the Biosphere” (MAB) Programme [ 13 ]. Outcomes included the establishment of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and various other regional institutions and initiatives to support sustainable mountain development [ 14 ].

A specific mountain chapter in the UN Agenda 21 was another important impulse for mountain research, leading inter alia to the publication of a state-of knowledge book in 1997 [ 15 ] and the foundation of global mountain institutions in the 1990s and 2000s, particularly the Mountain Forum (until 2010), the Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment Network (GMBA), the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI), and the Mountain Partnership. These institutions have been connecting mountain research, exchanging knowledge with residents, and raising awareness of mountain (eco)systems and their services from local to global levels. On a scientific level, they play an important role in e.g. coordinating or supporting comprehensive synthesis reports [ 16 – 19 ]. Such reports are essential in both societal and political contexts to deal with the present and future challenges in mountain regions, such as multiple stresses from climate or land-use changes [e.g. 20 , 21 ], demographic changes [e.g. 22 , 23 ] or increasing demands for resources [e.g. 24 , 25 ].

Ongoing, transdisciplinary and geographically comprehensive mountain research is required to successfully address future challenges at regional and global scales. A first global assessment of bibliometric data for mountain research with c. 14,000 publications [ 26 ] indicated that certain regions (and institutions) contributed disproportionately to our knowledge on mountains, while other regions were underrepresented in the literature. The applied methods did not allow detailed conclusions, such as regarding smaller mountain ranges or paper contents. It is also unknown how research activities on mountain areas developed in the last decade, although analyses of papers presented at international conferences provide snapshots [e.g., 27 – 29 ].

The current study investigates–with a more detailed thematic differentiation and an order of magnitude more data available than in Körner 2009 –the evolution of mountain research literature focusing on the period from 1990 to 2019 based on data from Web of Science TM . We extracted datasets on publications related to mountain research and analyzed detailed information associated to the individual papers. The analysis enabled quantitative insights into the development of publication activities over time, including geographical aspects, information on institutions and nationalities, scientific journals, and topics of mountain research.

The bibliometric analysis presented in this paper is based on peer-reviewed articles and review papers in the English language (hereafter summarized as “papers”) listed in the “Web of Science TM Core Collection” 1900–2019 (hereafter called “WOS”) and accessed via the “Web of Science TM API". Using this information source, the study aims to identify the vast majority of peer-reviewed works related to mountain systems. The resulting dataset is used for a quantitative analysis of the evolution of mountain research papers, geographical and institutional characteristics of mountain research, and frequent topics, updating and extending the findings of the study by Körner et al. (2009). Such analyses allow, for example, the identification of key actors and trending topics and of less-studied mountain regions. Also, the derived dataset can be used to identify papers focusing on a specific mountain research topic and therefore could facilitate systematic reviews, despite the growing numbers of papers published per year.

2.1 General search query

To select literature related to mountain research in a broad context, we used the following criteria:

TI OR AB OR AK = “General mountain terms” OR “Range names”
DT = Article OR Review
PY = 1900–2019
LA = English

TI, AB and AK are paper title, abstract and authors´ keywords, DT is the type of the publication, PY is the search period, and LA the language of the paper. The “General mountain terms” in this study were “Alpine”, “Mountain*” or “Montane”. After checking available online resources, the “Range names” were obtained from the list of mountain ranges and subranges sorted by length in Wikipedia to also include common synonyms (such as “Rockies” for “Rocky Mountains”). Adding the range names to the general mountain terms increased the total hits by 38%. The complete search string is provided in S1 Table . For our search string, we avoided the use of the WOS Field Tag TS which additionally (to TI, AB and AK) contains the so-called “Keyword Plus ®”, derived from cited literature. “Altitude” or “elevation”, though often used in mountain papers, have so many other semantic meanings (from aeronautics to mechanics, e.g. elevator) that they were not considered sufficiently selective.

To make sure that the results did not exceed the allowed maximum number of results per query (100,000), the queries were separated into three temporal periods (1900–2009, 2010–2014 and 2015–2019) and the results merged in the post-processing. While the search algorithms always referred to title, keywords and abstract, only few abstracts were available for papers published before 1990. Thus, to understand respective irregularities in hit numbers, we also performed a query exclusively based on TI and AK.

Regarding the search term “Alps”, excluded terms (used with NOT operator in query) were defined, which avoided hits of papers containing “Alps” as an abbreviation in medical contexts (e.g. for “Autoimmune lymphoproliferative syndrome”). These abbreviations were derived empirically by analyzing random samples of paper hits for the “Alps”. Additionally, we excluded papers on “Mountain pass theorem” and “Mountain pass lemma”, as these terms describe mathematical methods.

2.2 Mountain range query

In addition to the general survey on mountain research papers (see above), we performed individual queries for 40 ranges by applying the following criteria:

TI OR AB OR AK = “Range name” (OR “Synonyms” OR “Subrange name[s]”)

The considered range and subrange names are listed in S2 Table in the supplement. It is impossible to consider all potential ranges and subrange names, and authors use countless variants to identify ranges (local names, small-scale ranges, discipline-specific terms etc.). So we performed individual search queries for overarching range names, such as the Andes or the North American Cordillera, that included several subrange names, and for several smaller ranges from the Wikipedia list of Mountain ranges (for further details, see methods and search queries for ranges in S2 Table in the supplement).

For some ranges, we added geographically related conditions (“Southern Alps” AND “New Zealand”) or exclusion terms (see S2 Table in the supplement) to avoid mishits when the same range names are used in different geographical regions (e.g. other Alps in Japan or New Zealand). In some papers, more than one range name was mentioned in the search fields. In such cases, the paper was counted for all range names included.

2.3 Evaluation of search queries

For all developed search algorithms, maximizing the number of identified mountain papers while minimizing false positive search hits was crucial [ 30 ]. To evaluate the accuracy of our general search query in identifying exclusively mountain papers (α-error), we generated 3 random samples of 50 papers out of all paper hits and analyzed each paper by hand. On average, 91 ± 2% (mean ± standard error; analogue hereafter) of papers identified by the general query indeed presented mountain research.

We also checked the fraction of correct hits for the following individual ranges: for the Hindu Kush-Himalayas region, we got 96 ± 3%, for the Alps 92 ± 2% and, for the Andes 97 ± 3% correct hits from 3 random samples of 50 papers. For the Pontic Mountains, with only 10 hits in total, the query resulted in 100% correct hits. All evaluations are available in S4 Table . We also tested the effect of adding additional subrange names to the queries for the Andes (e.g. Cordillera Blanca, Cordillera Real, Tamá Massif etc.) and the Alps (e.g. Mont Blanc massif, Hohe Tauern, Karwendel), as both ranges have many named subranges. We found the total hits to increase by only 1.9% and by 0.8%, which we consider as negligible.

To estimate the efficiency of our query in finding all relevant mountain papers (β-error), 7 authors of this study were asked to list 25 mountain papers of their specific field (at that time, they had no information about the study and their design). From listed papers, 79 ± 21% were included in our query results. When we consider the lowest sample value of 32% to be an outlier with a too vague definition of mountain research and the sample with the second lowest value (68% of papers included) to mismatch with our definition of mountains as rugged terrain only (see discussion ), 90% of papers (of the remaining 5 samples) were included in our dataset. Submitted paper collections and respective statistics are available in S5 Table .

To summarize, our general search algorithm enabled the identification of ca. 90% of all WOS papers focusing on mountain areas, and more than 90% of the identified papers were on mountain research, which we consider as a solid basis for our literature analyses. However, it is impossible to avoid mishits, for instance when a mountain term is included in the name of a species [e.g. 31 ] or disease [e.g. 32 ] but the paper is not geographically related to mountains (α-error). When testing the β-error, we learned that the colleagues, who defined the seven samples, had different opinions on what should be considered as mountain research. For example, several missing papers referred to the Tibetan Plateau, which was not included in our range queries due to the absence of ruggedness (despite high elevation). Other papers were missed because they related to arctic environments. This demonstrates the difficulties of finding a common definition of mountains and mountain areas [ 1 , 33 ] which is valid across scientific disciplines as well as spatial scales.

2.4 Data extraction from WOS

For papers identified by our queries, title, journal, authors’ organization(s), country of organization(s), number of authors, year of publication, WOS category and subject(s), abstract, doctypes (Article or Review) and DOI number were extracted from the XML output obtained from the WOS API. Extraction of information on the authors´ organization (and host country) was difficult because sometimes different names were used for one organization or organization names were changed (e.g. due to merging of organizations) after publication of a paper. Furthermore, WOS lists authors´ organizations and countries separately when authors are from different departments (within one organization), but not when they are from the same department. Thus, we counted organizations and countries only once per paper, regardless of the number of authors per organization and/or country. Where available, we restrictively used the organization names from the so-called WOS “Organizations—Enhanced list” output, which assigns different name variants of organizations to one name. For authors with more than one affiliation, we counted all organizations (unless summarized under the same organization name in the “Organizations—Enhanced list”) and different countries.

The assignment of several organizations to umbrella-like structures (e.g. University of California, Berkeley to University of California System) in the “Organizations–Enhanced list” unavoidably exacerbates the comparability of organizations (see discussion ). In some cases (e.g. for papers with DOI 10.3390/su8090961 or 10.1130/B25500.1 ) one organization was associated to more than one name in the “Organizations–Enhanced list”. For example, “Univ Chinese Acad Sci” is associated to “Chinese Academy of Sciences” and “University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS”; “Univ London” is associated to “University of London” and “Royal Holloway University London”. We then used the first association listed in the XML output. In the top 200 list of organizations (in terms of publication activity), we manually identified “umbrella-like organizations”, including Universities, laboratories and other research institutions from different parts of a country/region; and “individual-university-like organizations”, representing one University or research institutions at a single location.

2.5 Word frequencies in abstracts

To analyze terms frequently used in abstracts, we first removed most words without specific semantics, such as articles, conjunctions, pronouns, prepositions, as well as substantives, verbs and adjectives with unspecific meanings (e.g. “study”, “increasing” or “significant”) from text files. Remaining words were counted once per abstract and the total numbers summarized. We then manually checked the 1000 most frequent words and selected 55 words (see S6 Table ) which were related to scientific topics or geographical scales. For those, we performed a frequency analysis for 5-year intervals from 1990 to 2019 (a period when abstracts were available for most papers). Plural forms of words or defined synonyms (e.g. climatic for climate) were considered, but each word, including its plural forms or synonyms, was only counted once per abstract (e.g. “climate” and “climatic” in the same abstract yield one hit for climate).

WC Int and WC total are the word counts per 5-year interval and in total (1990–2019), and PH Int and PH Total the respective paper hits. Thus, TI Int (1) shows relative changes of word frequencies per interval and (2) removes the trend caused by the increasing paper hits in the study period. TI 2015-2019 >1 indicates that the relative frequency of a word in the period 2015–2019 was above the average for 1990–2019, indicating increased relevance of respective topic(s). We used the same approach to investigate trends for individual ranges (WC in Eq 1 is substituted by range counts RC), countries (WC in Eq 1 is substituted by country counts CC) and organizations (WC in Eq 1 is substituted by organization counts OC).

2.6 Geographical data

For the 40 mountain ranges considered in our queries, polygons were derived from the supplement material (GMBA data) in Körner et al. (2017). They were directly taken from GMBA data version v1.1. as single polygons (29), from version v1.2. large scale data where multiple polygons were merged to a major mountain range (6), or manually merged from single polygons in version v1.1. (5; e.g. North American Cordillera). Details are listed in S2 Table and visualized in S1 Fig . The mountainous area [defined by ruggedness of the terrain, see 34 ] within these polygons is derived by intersecting the mountain polygons with the pixels classified as rugged terrain using the GMBA ruggedness mountain data and definition [based on 35 ; Release 4 based on the digital elevation model GMTED2010, version May 2021].

Population data for 2019 were derived from LandScan 2019™ High Resolution Global Population Data Set with a resolution of 30 arc seconds (the same as the GMBA ruggedness data). By intersecting the population data with GMBA data, the population densities for the mountainous (rugged terrain only) area and the polygon area were calculated (differences are shown in S2 Fig ).

3.1 Number of mountain papers

The general search query yielded 195,114 mountain papers in the period 1900–2019. Based on our evaluation, this number should include less than 10% of false positive hits and miss less than 10% of papers relevant for mountain research as defined in this study. In 1991, a sudden increase in hits was observed, which was caused by the inclusion of abstracts in WOS datasets from this year on. When abstracts were excluded from the query over the entire period, the number of papers increased continuously (see dashed lines in Fig 1 ).

PPT PowerPoint slide
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TIFF original image

Grey bars in (a) show the number of mountain papers (left y-axis) and the % of papers per year relative to all papers (right y-axis). The dashed line indicates the number of mountain papers found in a query without searching in abstracts. In (b), % of mountain papers relative to all WOS papers of same type (English; category article or review) is shown (dashed line same as in a).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.g001

Within the study period, a strong increase in the number of mountain papers per year was observed ( Fig 1A ). In the last 10 years of the study period (2010–2019), more than half (54%) of all identified papers were published. Besides the strong increase in absolute numbers, the number of mountain papers relative to total WOS papers ( Fig 1B ) increased by a factor of 3 from the 1960s (<0.1%) to the 2010s (ca. 0.3%; for search without looking into abstracts). For the first half of the twentieth century, few papers are listed in WOS and therefore, the proportion of mountain papers in relation to total papers strongly fluctuated between 0.05% and 0.3%. For the period 1991–2000, when abstracts in WOS were available and more papers could be identified, the average proportion of mountain papers was 0.4% of all WOS papers; for 2010–2019, the proportion increased to 0.6%.

3.2 Journals, paper categories and subjects

Overall, we found 2,100 journals which published at least 10 mountain papers between 1900 and 2019 ( Fig 2 ). The top journal (Tectonophysics) contained 2253 papers (1% of all identified mountain papers); 16 journals published more than 1000 papers; 399 journals more than 100; and 707 journals more than 50 papers. 97% of all papers were categorized as articles, 3% as reviews.

The full names associated with the used abbreviations are available in the supplement ( S3 Table ).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.g002

For some journals, almost all papers were published between 2015 and 2019 ( Fig 2 , orange bars). These journals (e.g. Scientific Reports, Remote Sensing or Forests) reached high numbers of mountain papers in a comparably short time. Also, two journals exclusively addressing mountain research were found in the top 100: Mountain Research and Development (MRD) and the Journal of Mountain Sciences (JMS) were at ranks 14 and 29 for the period 1900–2019, and at ranks 42 (MRD) and 9 (JMS) for the period 2015–2019, demonstrating a strong increase in recently published papers in JMS. The Revue de Géographie Alpine–Journal of Alpine Research, as mentioned in the introduction, was at place 149 whereas only the papers in English language were counted.

More than 94% of the papers were assigned to the field of “Science & Technology”, only 4 and 2% to “Social Sciences” and “Arts & Humanities”. The most frequent paper subject ( Table 1 ) was “Geosciences: Multidisciplinary” (12%), followed by “Environmental sciences” and “Ecology” (7% each); several papers were assigned to more than one subject category. These statistics of the papers’ subjects highlight that the great majority of papers were related to natural sciences.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.t001

3.3 Terms in abstracts

The most frequent term in abstracts was “change(s)”, which was found in 21% of all analyzed papers between 1990 and 2019 ( Fig 3 ), often combined with the words “climate” or “climatic” (32% of all cases), “environmental” (10%), “global” (8%), “economic” (3%), and “social” or “societal” (2%). Notably, the word combination “climate change” was only included in 5% of all abstracts, reflecting the different options to describe the same or similar phenomena (e.g. “climatic change(s)”, “changes in climate” etc.).

Number in brackets is the Trend Index (see Eq 1 ) for 2015–2019.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.g003

16% of all analyzed abstracts contained the word “climate” or “climatic”, and the number of papers on climate-related issues increased over time relative to other topics ( Fig 3 ). Next in frequency were the terms “forest(s)” (15% of all abstracts) and “water” (14% of all abstracts). The overall number of papers related to water in a broader sense was higher as, for example, only 31% of abstracts including “river(s)” also included “water”.

The term “temperature(s)” was found in about 14% of the abstracts. Respective papers were often related to climate topics (42% of the abstracts with “temperature(s)” also included climate-related terms). “Plant(s)” and “soil(s)” were included in around 11% and 10% of all abstracts, and 25% of the abstracts with “plant(s)” also contained “soil(s)”. “River(s)” and “tree(s)” were both included in more than 8% of the abstracts; “tree(s)” and “forest(s)” co-occurred in 59% of all cases. Notably, frequencies of the 10 most frequent words between 1990 and 2019 increased above the average between 2015 and 2019.

The term “regional(ly)” is different from the other words in the top 10 list as it describes a geographical context (not a topic). The term appeared in 10% of all abstracts and more often than “global(ly)” (7% of all abstracts). However, “global(ly)” had a TI 2015-2019 of 1.35, indicating that studies including global contexts have been increasing in absolute and relative frequencies in recent years. However, any interpretation has to consider non-geographical uses of “globally”.

Other trending terms were “hydropower” (TI 2015-2019 = 1.74), “biodiversity” (TI 2015-2019 = 1.49) and “ecosystems” (TI 2015-2019 = 1.41): their absolute frequency in papers from 2015 to 2019 differed by 1 or 2 orders of magnitude (for details, see S7 Table —WordsTop10).

3.4 Mountain ranges

Most papers (see Table 2 and Fig 7 ) were assigned to the Hindu Kush-Himalayas (HKH) region (21,412), the European Alps (16,314), the Andes (12,992), and the North American Cordillera (10,879). Regarding papers per 1,000 capita per mountainous area (referencing to rugged terrain only) or per polygon area (number in brackets; see Fig 4A ), the Alps had a value of 2.1 (0.9), the North American Cordillera of 1.3 (0.1), the Andes of 0.5 (0.1) and the HKH region of 0.4 (0.2). Relative to the mountainous or polygon (number in brackets) area ( Fig 4B ), the Alps had the highest ratio of papers per km 2 of all ranges 0.1 (0.09). For the HKH region, the ratio was 0.01 (0.006), for the Andes 0.007 (0.004), and for the North American Cordillera 0.005 (0.003). The proportion of paper contributions from authors based in local countries to total authors ( Table 2 ) varied considerably, with 37% for the Andes, 56% for the HKH region, 73% for the Alps, and 83% for the North American Cordillera.

Paper hits per capita (a) and per area (b; logarithmic scales) for all ranges. Ranges are sorted based on the number of total paper hits. Ranges with no hits are not shown. Orange refers to the polygon area, orange plus grey to the mountainous area (see methods ). Capita data represent 2019 values.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.g004

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.t002

In addition to the major ranges mentioned above, the Carpathians, Apennines, Appalachian Mountains, Western Ghats, and Qin Mountains had >1,000 absolute paper hits. Ratios of paper numbers vs. 1,000 capita were between 7.1 and 0.1 ( Fig 4A ). The differences between paper numbers per capita per mountainous vs. polygon area were pronounced for some of these ranges (e.g. the Appalachian Mountains in Fig 4A ). Regarding the ratio of paper numbers vs. area, values were in the order of 0.01 ( Fig 4B ). The percentage of authors based in local countries ( Table 2 ) was rather high (73–92%) for all these ranges.

Regarding the number of papers per mountain range since 1990 ( Fig 5 ), we observed the strongest increase for the HKH region, which was above the general trend of published mountain papers in the period 2015–2019 (TI 2015-2019 = 1.16). For the same period, paper contributions increased slightly above average for the Andes (TI 2015-2019 = 1.04), the Carpathian Mountains (TI 2015-2019 = 1.16), the Western Ghats (TI 2015-2019 = 1.32), and Qin Mountains (TI 2015-2019 = 1.43). In contrast, for the Alps and the North American Cordillera, despite increasing absolute numbers of paper contributions from 2015–2019, the increase was below the general trend (TI 2015-2019 <1). For the Apennines and the Dinaric mountains, the absolute paper contributions increased slightly in this period, while TI 2015-2019 was still >1 for the latter. Some mountain ranges with low numbers of total contributions but strong increases in recent years were the Altai (TI 2015-2019 = 1.51), Kopet Mountains (TI 2015-2019 = 1.48) and the Qin Mountains (TI 2015-2019 = 1.42; for more details, see S7 Table —MountainRangesTop10).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.g005

3.5 Countries

For the entire period (1900–2019), most paper contributions came from researchers based in the USA, China, Germany, Italy and UK (Figs 6A and 7 ). However, Fig 6A shows that the ranking has changed in recent years and India reached rank 3 in the period 2015–2019. Fig 6A also highlights a strong increase in paper contributions from China, which reached rank 2 in 2010–2015 with a clear above average relative increase in the period 2015–2019 (TI 2015-2019 = 1.48). In contrast, some other countries, such as the USA, Canada and Switzerland, showed a slight decrease in relative contributions.

(a) Top 10 Country contributions to papers for 5-year intervals from 1990–2019. Paper contributions of (b) Top 10 umbrella-like and (c) Top 10 individual-like organizations for 5-year intervals from 1990–2019. Number in brackets are the Trend Index values (see Eq 1 ) for 2015–2019.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.g006

% of total papers per university-like institution (blues; dots) for the top 200 university-like institutions. Polygons (black edge-color) indicate the considered mountain ranges (see methods and discussion for details). Background image made with Natural Earth.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.g007

Table 3 shows country-specific publication activities (period 2015–2019) including values corrected for population and economic data. Normalized by population, authors affiliated at institutions in Switzerland published the most papers, followed by other countries with a small area but large proportion of mountainous area (e.g. Austria, Iceland, Andorra) or with low population density (e.g. Norway or Iceland). Normalized by GDP ($) per capita as economic index, India reached the highest values, followed by China and Nepal. Countries such as Myanmar, Lithuania or Kazakhstan had very low numbers of total contributions to mountain research but notable increases in recent years (for more details, see S7 Table —CountriesTop10).

Exact values in brackets.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.t003

3.6 Organizations

With respect to umbrella-like organizations, the Chinese Academy of Sciences reached the top position in 2005–2010 and has since become, by far, the largest contributor to mountain research papers, with more than twice as many contributions as the CNRS (France) or the University of California System ( Fig 6B ). These three organizations also ranked 1 to 3 for the entire period (1900–2019). With the USDA and the USDI at positions 4 and 5, there were three organizations from the USA in the top 10, although these three organizations showed clearly decreasing trends in relative contributions in the period 2015–2019 (TI 2015-2019 <1). The three academic consortia from Europe in the top 10 were the CSIC in Spain, the Helmholtz Association in Germany, and the CNR in Italy. These organizations showed a slight decrease or a stable proportion of contributions (TI 2015-2019 ca. 1). The other organizations in the top 10 were CONICET (Argentina: position 7, increasing trend) and the Russian Academy of Sciences (position 10, stable trend).

With respect to individual, university-like organizations, the ETH Zurich was on rank 1 for both 1900–2019 and 1990–2019, although with a decreasing trend (T 2015-2019 = 0.79) in relative paper contributions in recent years ( Fig 6C ). From 2015–2019, the University of Innsbruck was ranked second, with an almost stable trend in relative contributions. At rank 3 was the China University of Geosciences, with the strongest increase in absolute and relative paper contributions. It was followed by the University of Bern, which showed a marked decrease in relative contributions in the last interval. In contrast, the Université Grenoble Alpes showed slightly increasing relative contributions from 2015–2019 and reached rank 5. The Universities of Zurich and Arizona, Lanzhou and Peking Universities, and Colorado State University had similar total contributions in the last interval but different trends.

S7 Table —UmbrellaLikeOrganizationsTop10 and UniLikeOrganizationsTop10—presents some newly emerging institutions in mountain research.

4. Discussion

The large dataset available in the Web of Science TM core collection enabled reliable insights into the evolution of mountain research activities from 1900 to 2019, particularly since the 1990s. Based on the presented search query, nearly 200,000 mountain-related English peer-reviewed articles could be extracted and analyzed regarding development of publication activities, journals and scientific categories, frequent topics, geographical distributions with respect to mountain ranges, authors’ countries and institutions.

The share of mountain papers from total papers in WOS was below <0.1% for decades but almost doubled between 1980 and 1990 ( Fig 1 ). One of the main reasons may be UNESCO’s MAB Programme, which greatly stimulated mountain research [ 36 ]. From 1991 to 2019, the share further increased by around 70%. On one hand, this reflects the success of activities (such as the establishment of global mountain research institutions; see introduction ) following the MAB Programme. On the other hand, research on climate change in various contexts disproportionally increased in these years [e.g. 37 , 38 ] and such research has become the most frequent topic in recent mountain research ( Fig 3 ), underlining the global importance of mountain areas with respect to all aspects of climate change (Adler et al. 2022).

Overall, the increasing quantity of papers indicates that the status of mountain research and knowledge of various mountain-related topics have substantially improved in recent years [as e.g. investigated in detail by 38 ]. According to the analysis of frequent terms ( Fig 3 ), many present-day topics and challenges, as mentioned in the introduction of this study or in the recently published cross chapter on mountains in IPCC AR6 (Adler et al., 2022), have been intensively addressed, at least from a natural-sciences perspective (disciplinary imbalances are further discussed below). Our analysis also shows that the number of contributions dealing with emerging challenges, e.g. the increasing demand for renewable energy resources from mountain systems, particularly from hydropower, has grown markedly in recent years ( S7 Table –WordsTop10).

However, the increase in papers makes it more challenging to keep an overview of the mountain research output, discuss potentially diverging results, and identify general and more specific research gaps. Noteworthy in this context, the proportion of reviews within mountain research papers decreased from 4.1% for 2000–2009 to 2.4% for 2010–2019. Datasets derived when applying the search queries presented in this study may be a helpful source to facilitate the preparation of future in-depth analyses and synthesis products dealing with present and future issues in mountain regions.

The large number of journals publishing mountain research reflects the broad range of scientific disciplines involved ( Fig 2 ), although most of the identified top 100 journals focus on natural sciences. In recent years, a shift in the number of papers from journals with long traditions in mountain research towards newly emerging journals took place. Thorough investigations of the trends in disciplinary contributions, based on the datasets presented in this study, would be desirable to e.g. find ways to deal with increasing numbers of interdisciplinary works and journals. Nevertheless, the findings indicate that the imbalances between natural and social sciences, evident in the past and recently [ 13 , 15 , 19 , 26 , 39 ] remain. These imbalances impose the risk that information from, and approaches in, natural sciences are not well linked to societal needs. Therefore, there is a continuing need for support for interdisciplinary projects and studies that are conducted by, or involve, social scientists (Gleeson et al. 2016, Price et al. 2022).

Crucially, the WOS restriction to papers in the English language, as already noticed by Körner (2009), means that a substantial fraction of mountain papers (e.g. in Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Russian or Spanish) are less recognized and are also missing from this study. From the perspective of the international mountain research community, it is highly desirable that relevant findings are (also) published in English-language journals and that institutions engaged in fostering mountain research are encouraged to provide support to researchers who are not native English speakers, such as editorial support (a long-standing policy of MRD) or translation services.

Analyzing geographical aspects as summarized in Fig 7 , the four major ranges, the Hindu-Kush Himalayas region, the Alps, the Andes and the North American Cordillera, received 73% of total hits from the range queries, with increasing numbers of absolute contributions over time ( Fig 5 and Table 2 ), which demonstrates the importance of these geographic areas within global mountain research. Overall, there was a high variability in total paper hits, as well as hits related to capita and area. Several ranges, such as the Japanese Alps and ranges in the east of Russia, had remarkably low ratios relative to capita and/or area, indicating limited information about these ranges, at least in English, WOS-listed journals. One outcome of this study could be to stimulate local and other researchers to check the current state of knowledge regarding these mountain ranges and highlight research deficits in a geographical context or make local (traditional) knowledge available for the international research community. In addition, the absolute quantity of papers and associated ratios per area/capita only reflects one of numerous aspects regarding the state of knowledge of individual mountain ranges. For example, exchanges between local societies and researchers are crucial for knowledge generation and application [ 40 ]. In this context, the Andes, the Ural Mountains, and the Atlas Mountains, for example, had exceptionally low ratios of paper authors based in local countries ( Table 2 ) which we consider disadvantageous for discourse among actors. These aspects should be considered in future national and international research strategies to reduce imbalances.

Considering contributions of countries, the USA and China have by far the highest absolute numbers of published mountain papers, with China showing an impressive increase during the last two decades ( Fig 6A and Table 3 ). China´s paper output related to its economic capacity (estimated by GDP per capita; Table 3 ) was also high, demonstrating its outstanding engagement in mountain research. It should be noted that other Asian countries, such as India, Nepal or Pakistan, also showed remarkable engagement in mountain research relative to their economic capacity. Per capita, Switzerland remains the leading contributor [ 26 ], followed by other European countries and New Zealand, demonstrating the long tradition and profound experiences in mountain research in these mostly mountainous countries. South America, despite its large mountain areas, showed relatively low research activity: Brazil was the only country in the top ten of any of our statistics presented in Table 3 (which fits also to the low share of local paper authors observed for the Andes; see above). Given the high importance of mountains for many countries in South America, this might be a motivation to check whether substantial amounts of scientific works are only available in Portuguese or Spanish [ 41 ] and, as recognized by the Conéctate+ initiative of MRI, to increase international cooperation to inter alia educate or train local researchers, and to strengthen mountain research institutions. Similarly, in Africa only one country (Ethiopia due to low economic capacity) was among any of the top ten groups and, based on the results for Atlas Mountains ( Table 2 ) and [ 42 ], we assume that the involvement of local researchers has been below average. Similar recommendations could therefore be made for Africa, where the Southern African Mountain Conference has recently provided an opportunity to bring together researchers. Our results for South America and Africa are in line with earlier findings [ 28 ].

With respect to institutions ( Fig 6 ), results regarding umbrella-like organizations have to be interpreted with care: the analysis is clearly biased by the varying sizes of these organizations (a political/economic rather than a scientific aspect), with a striking example being the overwhelming size of Chinese Academy of Science network. In the USA and the European Union, such umbrella-like organizations are smaller, though several were ranked within the top ten. For individual, university-like organizations, strongly increasing contributions from Chinese universities caused a slight decreasing trend in relative shares for all other universities, except the Université Grenoble Alpes. In absolute numbers, ETH Zurich maintained its dominant position in mountain research over the years [ 26 ], followed by the University of Innsbruck, which recently reached rank two.

5. Conclusions

The overall increase in mountain research activities and new topical hot spots in mountain research are promising developments with respect to new challenges such as global changes, as already called for in the first global strategy for research in mountain areas, published in 2005 [ 43 ]. The increase in papers underlines the value of review papers and synthesis reports (e.g. Adler et al., 2022; Egan and Price, 2017; Haddaway et al., 2020; Hock et al., 2019; Romeo et al., 2020; Wester et al., 2019) as well as the importance of mountain research institutions in strengthening capacity, especially to address disciplinary and geographic imbalances; transferring knowledge to political processes; and supporting transdisciplinary research and exchange with local societies. Accordingly, good visibility and easy accessibility of papers on mountain research are highly desirable, which should be supported by including general mountain terms and (overarching) mountain range names in the title, abstract or keywords of any paper. For all institutions actively engaged in developing mountain research further, developing strategies to monitor and reduce geographical, social and disciplinary imbalances is highly desirable.

Supporting information

S1 table. general search string as applied in the web of science tm advanced search..

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s001

S2 Table. Search strings for individual mountain ranges as applied in the Web of Science TM advanced search.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s002

S3 Table. List of journals that published identified mountain research papers with number of papers found for the period 1900–2019 and 2015–2019.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s003

S4 Table. List of papers defined as mountain research by several authors of this study and evaluation results.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s004

S5 Table. Subsamples of results from queries with quality checks.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s005

S6 Table. List of selected words (including synonyms) analyzed within this study.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s006

S7 Table. Results of Trend Index as defined in this study for words, mountain ranges, countries and organizations.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s007

S1 Fig. Interactive world map with polygons of the 40 mountain ranges considered in this study.

Range names are shown when moving the mouse over the polygons.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s008

S2 Fig. Differences due to geographical reference.

Difference in population density of mountain ranges calculated for the entire polygon area and only for the rugged terrain within the polygon area.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273421.s009

Acknowledgments

We thank the editor and Graham McDowell as well as one anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments that helped to substantially improve the manuscript.

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Published: 13 July 2021

Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century

Gabriel A. Vecchi ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5085-224X 1 , 2 ,
Christopher Landsea 3 ,
Wei Zhang 4 ,
Gabriele Villarini ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9566-2370 5 &
Thomas Knutson ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4541-519X 6

Nature Communications volume 12 , Article number: 4054 ( 2021 ) Cite this article

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Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
Climate change

Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851–2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world

Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability

Hurricane María’s Precipitation Signature in Puerto Rico: A Conceivable Presage of Rains to Come

Introduction.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are of intense scientific interest and are a major threat to human life and property across the globe 1 , 2 , 3 . Of particular interest are multi-decadal changes in TC frequency arising from some combination of intrinsic variability in the weather and climate system, and the response to natural and anthropogenic climate forcing 4 , 5 , 6 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 . Even though the North Atlantic (NA) basin is a minor contributor to global TC frequency, Atlantic hurricanes (HUs) have been the topic of considerable research both because of the long-term records of their track and frequency that exist for this basin, and because of their impacts at landfall. It is convenient and common to consider Saffir-Simpson Categories 3–5 (peak sustained winds exceeding 50 ms −1 ) HUs separately from the overall frequency, and label them major hurricanes, or MHs. Historically, MHs have accounted for ~80% of hurricane-related damage in the United States of America (USA) despite only representing 34% of USA TC occurrences 1 .

Globally, models and theoretical arguments indicate that in a warming world the HU peak intensity and intensification rate should increase, so that there is a tendency for the fraction of HU reaching high Saffir-Simpson Categories (3, 4, or 5) to increase in models in response to CO 2 increases, yet model projections are more mixed regarding changes in the frequency of MHs in individual basins (e.g., NA) 6 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 . Homogenized satellite-based TC intensity observations since the early 1980s show an increase in the fraction of MH to overall TCs both in the NA and globally 14 , and there has also been a documented increase since the 1980s in the fraction of global and NA HU that undergo rapid intensification 15 . Theoretical arguments, modeling studies, and observational analyses indicate that the overall frequency of TCs and their intensity across the tropics, and for Atlantic HUs in particular, may vary differently and exhibit distinct connections to climate drivers 14 , 15 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 . There is substantial spread in model projections of the 21st century response of both overall NA HU frequency and of the response of the frequency of the most intense NA HUs 6 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 . However, the connection between recent recorded multi-decadal changes in NA HU activity and 21st century HU projections is complicated by the fact that recent changes (e.g., since the 1970s) in NA HU and MH activity likely contain a substantial contribution from internal climate variation or non-greenhouse gas forcing 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 .

Has there been a century-scale change in the number of the most intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic? Analyses of longer records (i.e., going back into the 19th century) of NA HU and MH frequency provide an additional lens with which to interpret both recent HU activity changes and projections of future hurricane activity. The North Atlantic Hurricane Database version 2 (HURDAT2; ref. 33 ) provides records of NA HU activity going back to 1851—a nearly 170-year record of HU activity. Using HURDAT2, one can explore secular changes in aggregate statistics of NA HU activity, such as the annual number of HU and MH strikes in the USA and the annual number of HUs and MHs in the Atlantic (or basin-wide HU and MH frequency). The USA HU strike record we use includes storms for which either hurricane strength, or v max ≥ 33 ms −1 , or major hurricane strength, or v max ≥ 50 ms −1 , winds impacted the continental USA from the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, so this record includes storms for which the center did not cross onto land.

Due to changes in observing practices, severe inhomogeneities exist in this database, complicating the assessment of long-term changes 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 . In particular, there has been a substantial increase in monitoring capacity over the past 170 years, so that the probability that a HU is observed is substantially higher in the present than early in the record 10 ; the recorded increase in both Atlantic TC and HU frequency in HURDAT2 since the late-19th century is consistent with the impact of known changes in observing practices 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 . Major hurricane frequency estimates can also be impacted by changing observing systems 13 .

We here show that recorded increases in NA HU and MH frequency, and in the ratio of MH to HU, can be understood as resulting from past changes in sampling of the NA. We build on the methodology and extend the results of ref. 10 to develop a homogenized record of basin-wide NA HU and MH frequency from 1851–2019 (see Methods Section), this homogenized record indicates that the increase in NA HU and MH frequency since the 1970s is not a continuation of century-scale change, but a rebound from a deep minimum in the late 20th century.

Recorded century-scale NA hurricane changes

Neither the number of HU nor MH striking the USA are dominated by century-scale changes between 1851 and 2019, although each exhibits substantial year-to-year and decadal fluctuations (Fig. 1a, b ). There is a decrease in the recorded number of USA HU strikes, that may be statistically significant for certain periods (e.g., Table 1 ) or depending on the statistical model used 34 . Hurricane data are available from 1851 onwards, but even for USA-striking HUs and MHs there are likely to be inhomogeneities including undersampling over this period. We show the data for the full 1851–2019 record, but highlight the pre-1878 era with dark gray background shading—as 1878 was the year in which the U.S. Signal Corps began systematic efforts to catalog all Atlantic HUs 35 . Furthermore, it is likely that U.S. coastal regions did not become sufficiently well-populated to fully monitor US-striking HUs and MHs until at least the year 1900 (ref. 36 ), so we highlight the 1878–1900 period with lighter gray shading in our figures. Basin-wide NA HU and MH frequency shows substantial year-to-year and multi-decadal variation, some of which is reflected in U.S. striking frequency (Fig. 1 ).

Time-series of annual (colored lines) and 15-year running average (black lines) count of hurricanes (panels a and c ; maximum wind speed ≥33 ms −1 ) and major hurricanes (panels b and d ; maximum wind speed ≥50 ms −1 ) either striking the mainland United States of America (USA; panels a and b ) or in the whole North Atlantic basin (panels c and d ) from version 2 of the North Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT2, ref. 33 ). Dark gray background shading between 1851–1877 indicates the period before the United States Signal Corps was tasked with recording all tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic (ref. 35 ), light gray background shading between 1878 and 1900 indicates the time before which it is estimated that all hurricanes striking the USA would have been recorded (ref. 36 ).

In contrast to the frequency of HUs striking the USA, there is a clear and pronounced increase in the basin-wide NA HU and MH frequency recorded in the HURDAT2 database between 1851 and 2019 (Fig. 1c, d ), with about triple the recorded NA MHs in recent decades compared to the mid-19th century. One possible interpretation of the distinct evolution of basin-wide and U.S.-striking HU and MH, is that U.S. strikes represent a fraction of the overall NA basin-wide frequency, and redistributions of HU activity within the NA basin could result in distinct evolutions of U.S. strikes and NA basin-wide frequency 37 , 38 . An additional or alternative contribution to the U.S. striking-to-basin-wide distinction could be that changing observing practices had a larger impact on basin-wide HU than on recorded U.S. HU strikes, leading to spurious increasing trends in recorded basin-wide HU 10 and MH frequency. These possible explanations for the observed behavior are further explored below.

Hurricane and major hurricane frequency adjusted for missing storms

Previous work has led to the development of a number of methods to estimate the impact of changing observing capabilities on the recorded increase in basin-wide HU frequency between 1878 and 2008 (ref. 10 ). We here update the analysis of ref. 10 to build an adjustment to recorded HU counts over 1851–1971, based on the characteristics of observed HUs over 1972–2019. We then extend that methodology to build an adjustment to recorded MH counts over 1851–1971, based on MHs recorded over 1972–2019 (see “Methods”). The methodology for the basin-wide count adjustment involves using HU (MH) tracks from an era we posit is fully sampled, along with ship-position data from the pre-fully-sampled era, to build a probabilistic estimate of the number of storms that may have occurred and not been detected in each year of the earlier era. There are a number of key assumptions that go into this methodology (see “Methods” section and refs. 9 , 10 ), including assuming that ships at sea and land would have been perfect observers, and that the types of TCs that have occurred in the fully sampled era are representative of those that could have occurred prior to the fully sampled period. After making these assumptions, and building a model for the radius of HU (≥33 m/s) or MH (≥ 50 m/s) winds, we construct our basin-wide NA HU and MH adjustment: the estimate of the time-evolving number of HUs or MHs that were likely missed before the early 1970s. Ref. 9 use 1966 as the start of the fully sampled era because at least once a day satellite pictures became routinely available: the sun-synchronous Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) satellites. However, the quality of these data is not sufficient to determine intensity (maximum wind) reliably, nor is there a systematic technique (Dvorak) calibrated for these data to obtain maximum winds. In 1972, high-resolution imagery from the Applications Technology Satellite (ATS) began to be used operationally, and the Dvorak technique was invented and used operationally during daylight hours on both the ESSA and ATS imagery, which were by then available electronically instead of fax-type imagery. However, we note that the main results in this study are not qualitatively altered by using 1966 as the start.

The estimated number of missing NA HUs grows backward in time, reaching a peak value of ~3 HUs/year between 1860 and 1880 (red lines Fig. 2a, c ); the updated reconstruction shows substantial similarity to that of ref. 10 , which was based on satellite era HUs over 1966–2008. Meanwhile, the estimated number of missing NA MH shows a relatively steadier value for most of the record, at around one MH per year (red lines Fig. 2b, c ). Additional robustness analysis leaving out sets of satellite era years 37 shows that the HU and MH adjustments are not the result of particular satellite era years ( Supplementary Material ). For both MH and HU there is a local maximum in the annual correction centered around both World Wars—with the World War II maximum being evident even in the smoothed data (Fig. 2 ); these maxima in correction reflect a minimum in ship reports in the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) during the World Wars. For frequency in a single year there is substantial uncertainty in both adjustments, so that it cannot be excluded at the 95% confidence level that no storms or that at a few times more than the central estimate were missed (pink shading in Fig. 2a, b ). However, for the 15-year running smoothed counts the 95% range on the adjustment is smaller than for annual values, and the method indicates a significant undercount in both NA HUs and MHs for the entire pre-1960s period (pink shading in Fig. 2c, d )—we note that the results are qualitatively consistent for smoothing windows between 9- and 25-years.

Top panels a , b show adjusted values for each year 1851–2019, bottom panels c , d show the values for the 15-year centered average of basin-wide frequency; the frequency of North Atlantic (NA) hurricanes is shown on the left and of NA major hurricanes on the right. In each panel, the red thick line shows the mean estimate of the missing storm adjustment, thick black line shows the median estimate, and the pink shading shows the 95% range on the adjustment based on a bootstrap resampling of the adjustments; thick blue line shows the mean estimate on basin-wide frequency (sum of frequency recorded in version 2 of the North Atlantic Hurricane Database, HURDAT2, ref. 33 , and the adjustment developed in this study), thin black line shows the median estimate of the adjusted frequency, the sky-blue shading shows the 95% range on the adjusted value based on a bootstrap resampling of the adjustments. In the bottom panels c , d a dotted gray line shows the 15-year centered average of the recorded HURDAT2 counts (seen also in Fig. 1c, d ). Gray background shading is as in Fig. 1 , and highlights times where we have reduced confidence in the frequency estimates even after adjusting for likely missing storms.

Once the adjustment is added to the recorded number of Atlantic HUs and MHs, substantial year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability is still present in the data, with the late-19th, mid-20th and early-21st centuries showing relative maxima, and the early 20th and late 20th centuries showing local minima (Fig. 2 ). However, after adjustment, the recent epoch (1995–2019) does not stand out as unprecedented in either basin-wide HU or MH frequency. There have been notable years since 2000 in terms of basin-wide HU frequency, but we cannot exclude at the 95% level that the most active years in terms of NA basin-wide HU or MH frequency occurred in either the 19th century or mid-20th century (blue lines and shading in Fig. 2a, b ). Further, we cannot exclude that the most active epoch for NA HU frequency was in the late-19th century, with the mid-20th century comparable to the early-21st in terms of basin-wide HU frequency. The 19th century maximum in activity is more pronounced in overall frequency than in MH frequency, while the late-20th century multi-decadal temporary dip in MH frequency stands out relative to that in the early-20th century. Relative to the satellite era and after adjustment, overall basin-wide frequency shows a more active late-19th century than does basin-wide MH frequency. Meanwhile, after adjustment the mid-20th century active period is more pronounced in basin-wide MHs than in overall HU frequency.

To evaluate secular changes in frequency, we build a Poisson regression for each of the HU and MH frequency records using time as a covariate (see Methods) and show the results in Table 1 . We explore a number of start-dates for our trend estimate, and to assess the robustness of the trends, we also explore trends over 1980–2019 to place recent changes 14 in the context of century-scale ones. The nominal century-scale decreases in the frequency of hurricanes striking the USA (both HU and MH) are generally not statistically significant, and differ from the 1980–2019 changes. However, the century-scale increases in HURDAT2 basin-wide HU and MH frequency are very significant and present for all start dates. However, once the missing storm adjustments are included, the nominal sign of the basin-wide HU trend changes for the early start dates, and is weakly significantly positive only for the 1900 start date. The adjusted basin-wide MH record retains a nominally positive trend, but the trends after 1878 are not significant, and those computed from 1851 are only marginally significant. Furthermore, the 1980–2019 increases in basin-wide HU and MH frequency are not a continuation of a longer-term trend, but reflect a recovery from a strong minimum in the 1970s and 1980s (Fig. 2 )—this evolution suggests a dominant contribution to past multidecadal variations of HU and MH frequency from some combination of multi-decadal internal climate variability (such as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability tied to variations in the strength of meridional ocean heat transport in the Atlantic—refs. 16 , 17 , 18 ) and/or non-greenhouse gas forcing, such as variations in anthropogenic or natural aerosols 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 .

USA hurricane strikes to basin-wide and MH/HU ratios

In the raw HURDAT2 database, the century-scale evolution of recorded basin-wide NA HUs and MHs differs considerably from that of HUs and MHs striking the USA (compare top and bottom of Fig. 1 ). This difference results in a century-scale decrease in the fraction of basin-wide recorded overall and major hurricanes striking the USA (gray dotted lines Fig. 3 ), with about 40% of basin-wide MH striking the USA as a MH (Fig. 3b ). One possible interpretation of this decreasing ratio is that there has been a century-scale shift in the tracks of HU and MH, or that in recent decades HUs and MHs are losing either their intensity or tropical nature as they approach the coast of the USA 38 , 39 . An alternative interpretation is that USA HU and MH strikes have been better observed since the mid-1850s than basin-wide frequency of either, resulting in a spurious inflation of the USA strike-to-basin-wide ratio in the pre-satellite era 40 . The adjusted basin-wide HU and MH records support the latter hypothesis: once we include the adjustment for likely missing storms, there is no longer a clear century-scale decrease in this ratio (black line in Fig. 3 ).

Ratio of the 15-year running count of United States of America (USA) strikes and 15-year running count of basin-wide frequency for hurricanes ( a ) and major hurricanes ( b ). Dotted gray line shows the values based on the recorded version 2 of the North Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT2, ref. 33 ) frequency, while the thick solid line shows the value based on the HURDAT2 recorded USA strikes and the adjusted basin-wide frequencies; blue shading shows the 95% range on the ratio based on a Bootstrap sampling of the adjustment values. Gray background shading is as in Fig. 1 , and highlights times where we have reduced confidence in the basin-wide and USA strike frequency estimates even after adjusting for likely missing storms.

We can assess secular changes in the fraction of basin-wide HUs and MHs that strike the USA using a Binomial regression model with time as a covariate (top four rows of Table 2 , see “Methods”). For the HURDAT2 data, the century-scale decreases in USA-striking proportion are very significant (top row Table 2 ). After adjusting for missing storms, the century-scale decrease in USA-striking HU fraction is weaker and of modest significance, largely reflecting the influence of a maximum in the 1910s (Fig. 3 ). However, the century-scale changes in USA-striking MH fraction do not show any significant secular change, with around 20–30% of NA MHs over 15-year periods having struck the USA as MHs. Based on our adjusted estimates, it appears that the stationary ratio of USA-striking to basin-wide MHs reported over the late-20th century (ref. 41 ) is evident since the mid-19th century, and we do not see evidence for strong multi-decadal modulation of the USA-striking MH fraction 40 .

In estimates of the sensitivity of NA HU activity to greenhouse-induced warming and 21st century projections based on dynamical or statistical-dynamical models 6 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , there is more consistency for an increase in the fraction of HUs becoming MHs (that is, an intensification of HU) than in either the overall frequency of HUs or MHs. In the raw HURDAT2 dataset, there is a substantial century-scale increase in the NA MH/HU ratio since the late-1800s (gray line in Fig. 4 ). However, once the adjustment is added to both NA HUs and MHs (blue line and shading in Fig. 4 ), the running 15-year MH/HU ratio is dominated by multi-decadal fluctuations, with minima of 25–30% in the mid-1850 s and in the decades centered around the 1980s, and maxima of 40–50% in the early-to-mid-20th century and the early 21st century. The low values in the 1850–1878 period, while being unique in the record, also occur during the period when we have least confidence in the data—based on these considerations, we view with skepticism any century-scale trend that arises only once the 1850–1878 period is included. In our adjustment methodology, we assume that ships at sea do not aim to steer away from HU and MH winds (Assumption 5, “Methods” section)—this assumption may be less justified for MH winds, and may result in an underestimate of MH relative to HU in the record even after adjustment. Nevertheless, the recent increase in the proportion of NA HUs becoming MHs, after adjustment, which is also reflected in the results of ref. 14 , is not a continuation or acceleration of a long-term trend, but rather is a rebound from a deep minimum in the decades surrounding the 1980s—see below for a discussion of possible mechanisms.

Ratio of the 15-year running count in North Atlantic basin-wide major hurricane to hurricane frequency. Gray line shows data based on version 2 of the North Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT2, ref. 33 ) recorded frequencies, while the blue line shows the ratio based on the mean adjusted frequencies (light blue shading shows the 95% range based on a Bootstrap resampling of the adjustment). Gray background shading is as in Fig. 1 , and highlights times where we have reduced confidence in the frequency estimates even after adjusting for likely missing storms.

We evaluate secular changes in the fraction of HUs becoming MHs through a Binomial regression model with time as a covariate (bottom three rows of Table 2 ; see “Methods”). The fraction of HUs striking the USA as MHs does not show a significant change for any of the epochs we explore. For both HURDAT2 and the adjusted series, there is a significant increase in basin-wide MH fraction over 1851–2019. The HURDAT2 series shows at least a nominal increase in MH fraction for all the epochs explored, though the p -value exceeds 0.1 for the 1900–2019 and 1980–2019 periods. Meanwhile, for the adjusted MH and HU records, the trends in basin-wide MH fraction are neither significant nor of consistent sign for 1878–2019 and 1900–2019. After adjustment of the basin-wide MH and HU record, century-scale increases in basin-wide MH frequency depend on the pre-1878 era, before the U.S. Signal Corps started efforts to monitor all Atlantic HUs 35 .

One of the most consistent expectations from projected future global warming is that there should be an increase in TC intensity, such that the fraction of MH to HU increases 6 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 . This issue has become more pressing with the recent finding of a global increase in this metric since 1979 using homogenized satellite-based data 14 —a finding to which Atlantic HU contribute. We here build on the methods of refs. 9 , 10 to build a homogenized record of Atlantic MH frequency and MH/HU ratio since the 19th century. We find here that, once we include a correction for undercounts in the pre-satellite era basin-wide NA HU and MH frequency, there are no significant increases in either basin-wide HU or MH frequency, or in the MH/HU ratio for the Atlantic basin between 1878 and 2019 (when the U.S. Signal Corps started tracking NA HUs 35 ). We suggest that the modestly significant 1851–2019 increase in basin-wide MH frequency and MH/HU ratio that remains after including the HU and MH adjustment reflects data inhomogeneity that our adjustment is unable to correct—rather than an actual increase in these quantities. The homogenized basin-wide HU and MH record does not show strong evidence of a century-scale increase in either MH frequency or MH/HU ratio associated with the century-scale, greenhouse-gas-induced warming of the planet. For example, the temporal evolution of the global mean temperature is not closely reflected in the temporal evolution of adjusted MH/HU ratio shown in Fig. 4 .

Does this work provide evidence against the hypothesis that greenhouse-gas-induced warming may lead to an intensification of North Atlantic HUs? Not necessarily. Substantial multi-decadal variability may obscure trends computed over the past century 16 , 17 , 18 , 20 , 21 , and recent studies suggest the possibility for an aerosol-driven reduction in NA HU and MH activity over the 1960s–1980s (refs. 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 ), which may have obscured any greenhouse induced NA HU and MH intensification over the 20th century. For example, a statistical downscaling of global climate models (GCMs) that were part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) shows a robust and significant projection for a greenhouse gas-induced 21st century NA hurricane intensification; yet applying that same method to historical simulations the greenhouse-induced intensification over the late-19th and 20th century is masked by the late-20th century aerosol-induced weakening 20 . Historical simulations show that aerosol forcing may have masked the 19th-20th century greenhouse-gas-induced increase in potential intensity, the theoretical upper bound on tropical cyclone intensity, even though climate models show increases in potential intensity in tropical cyclone regions in response to projected future warming 24 , 25 , 26 . The homogenized MH and HU data developed in the present study serve as a target for century-scale historical simulations with high-resolution dynamical and statistical models that are used for 21st century projections.

The adjusted NA basin-wide MH frequency and MH/HU ratio show substantial multi-decadal variability (Figs. 2 , 4 ), and the adjusted basin-wide MH frequency shows its lowest values over the 1960s–1980s (Fig. 2 ). These features show at least qualitative consistency with the notion of a strong influence of either internal multi-decadal climate variability and/or late-20th century aerosol-induced weakening of NA HU intensity during that period. Our homogenized records also correspond with document- and proxy-based reconstructions of Antilles and Atlantic HUs, which indicate that substantial variability in HU frequency has been present in the Atlantic, and the inactive period in the late 20th century may have been the most inactive period in recent centuries 42 , 43 .

The homogenized hurricane records suggest a consistent and marginally statistically significant decrease in the ratio of basin-wide hurricanes striking the USA as hurricanes (Table 2 , row 3). Some models project an eastward shift in the location of NA TCs in response to increasing greenhouse gases (e.g., refs. 27 , 28 ), so this observed change may reflect the emerging impact of greenhouse warming on NA TC tracks. However, although there is a nominal decrease in the ratio of basin-wide MH striking the USA as MH (Table 2 , row 4), the trends are not significant for any of the time periods explored.

Caution should be taken in connecting recent changes in Atlantic hurricane activity to the century-scale warming of our planet. The adjusted records presented here provide a century-scale context with which to interpret recent studies indicating a significant recent increase in NA MH/HU ratio over 1980–2017 (ref. 14 ), or in the fraction of NA tropical storms that rapidly intensified over 1982–2009 (ref. 15 ). Our results indicate that the recent increase in NA basin-wide MH/HU ratio or MH frequency is not part of a century-scale increase. Rather it is a rebound from a deep local minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We hypothesize that these recent increases contain a substantial, even dominant, contribution from internal climate variability 16 , 17 , 18 , 20 , 21 , and/or late-20th century aerosol increases and subsequent decreases 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , in addition to any contributions from recent greenhouse gas-induced warming 20 , 22 , 24 , 44 . It has been hypothesized, for example, that aerosol-induced reductions in surface insolation over the tropical Atlantic since between the mid-20th century and the 1980s may have resulted in an inhibition of tropical cyclone activity 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 ; the relative contributions of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, dust, and volcanic aerosols to this signal (each of which would carry distinct implications for future hurricane evolution)—along with the magnitude and impact of aerosol-mediated cloud changes—remain a vigorous topic of scientific inquiry. It has also been suggested that multi-decadal climate variations connected to changes in meridional ocean overturning may have resulted in a minimum in northward heat transport in the Atlantic and a resulting reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity 16 , 17 , 18 , 20 , 21 . Given the uncertainties that presently exist in understanding multi-decadal climate variability, the climate response to aerosols and impact of greenhouse gas warming on NA TC activity, care must be exercised in not over-interpreting the implications of, and causes behind, these recent NA MH increases. Disentangling the relative impact of multiple climate drivers on NA MH activity is crucial to building a more confident assessment of the likely course of future HU activity in a world where the effects of greenhouse gas changes are expected to become increasingly important.

Missing storm adjustment methodology

We extend the methodology described in refs. 9 , 10 to NA overall HU frequency since 1851, and adapt the methodology to NA major (Saffir-Simpson Category 3–5) hurricane frequency since 1851. For North Atlantic HU frequency, the methodology is that of ref. 10 , except we use a longer HURDAT2 dataset 34 : from 1972 to 2019, instead of the 1972–2008 record used in ref. 10 to develop the correction. We also extend the recount estimates to span the full HURDAT2 record of 1851–1971, instead of 1878–1971 as was done in Refs. 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 .

Using the methodology for HU adjustment of ref. 10 , the undercount adjustment is developed using an observing system emulation, in which we compare HU tracks from the satellite era (1972-present) to ship track density from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS, ref. 45 ) dataset from the pre-satellite era (1851–1971). The probability that a given storm from the satellite era would have been missed had it occurred in a particular pre-satellite year is estimated through an ensemble by sampling across 21 different shifts in the storm’s actual date of occurrence (shifting forward and backward in the calendar by 0, 5, 10, 15, …, 45, 50 days), and by drawing 100 realizations of the radius of gale-force and hurricane strength winds from a probability density function (PDF) based on the observations of ref. 46 . For each realization, we assess that a HU would have been detected if either one land observation would have been within the parameterized radius of hurricane winds (R33), or two ship observations would have been within the model-parameterized radius of tropical storm winds (R17), with at least one being withing radius of hurricane-force winds (R33). We also require that the first detection of a tropical storm or HU must be equatorward of 40°N. Radius of 17 and 33 ms −1 winds (R17 and R33) are parameterized based on the data of ref. 46 , the radii are multiplied by 0.85 to correct from maximum extent to mean extent.

The average radius of tropical storm winds (R17) is parameterized such that the logarithm of the radius follows a normal distribution, with the random seed selected for each storm. As reported in ref. 9 , R17 (in kilometers) is parameterized based on the wind speed of the storm ( v max ) as follows, where ξ is a normally distributed random variable for each storm with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one:

The average radius of hurricane winds (33 ms −1 ) winds is parameterized such that the logarithm of the radius follows a normal distribution when the storm winds exceed 33 ms −1 , and is zero when the storm is weaker than hurricane strength, using the parameterization of ref. 10 , where ξ is a normally distributed random variable for each storm with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one:

The probability of a satellite era storm being detected is computed as the total realizations in which the storm was detectable divided by the total realizations in a given pre-satellite observing system year (21 date shifts × 100 size ensembles = 2100). The mean missing storm count estimate for a given pre-satellite era year is the sum across all satellite era years of the sums of the probability the storms were missed (that is 1 minus the probability that it would have been detectable in a given year had it occurred). We build a Bootstrap uncertainty estimate for the missing storm counts by drawing 10,000 samples (with replacement) for each pre-satellite era year from the 2100 ensembles × 48 satellite era years = 100,800.

For MHs, the methodology of ref. 10 is adapted by changing the detection threshold to be a single ship or a single land point within the modeled radius of 50 ms −1 winds (see below). We do not require multiple 50 ms −1 detections, nor do we place a latitude threshold on the detection. Furthermore, we assess that the pre-satellite era for MHs is likely 1851–1971, rather than 1851–1965 - although only computing the correction over the period 1851–1965 does not affect any of the principal results of this study. The probability of a satellite era MH being detected is computed in an analogous manner to that for overall HU frequency, generating an ensemble by shifting the timing of satellite era storms and producing multiple realizations of 50 ms −1 radius.

Major hurricane wind radius model

To build a model for the radius of 50 ms −1 winds (R50), we use the HWIND 1998–2013 estimates of wind radii 47 . We build the model using the observations that meet the requirements during the period (1998–2013). Note that one MH can have multiple MH observations during its lifespan. For each observation, we identify the location(s) where the wind speed exceeds 50 ms −1 and calculate the distance from the HU center to the location(s). The radius of 50 ms −1 winds for a HU observation is the averaged distance from the HU center to the locations with exceeding 50 m s −1 wind speed. We fit the lognormal distribution (i.e., µ = 3.416, σ = 0.478) for the radii of 243 MH observations during the study period. Therefore, the R50 parameterization is as follows, where ξ is a Normally distributed random variable for each storm with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one:

Key assumptions in the hurricane adjustment methodology

The key assumptions in the HU adjustment methodology are discussed at greater length in Refs. 9 , 10 , but we briefly list them here for the benefit of the reader:

All land points and ship observations are perfect storm detectors: this will bias the storm adjustment low, particularly in the 1800s.

Ship tracks in the ICOADS database 44 are representative of ships that have provided meteorological data for storm identification 34 this will bias the storm adjustment high if there is considerable other independent data available. We note that we include all ICOADS observations, regardless of the meteorological data reported, which could overestimate the data available for storm identification, which should partially mitigate the bias.

All storms detectable by the ships have been, or will be, included in HURDAT2: this will bias the storm adjustment low.

TCs are assumed radially symmetric: this will likely lead to random adjustment errors, rather than a systematic bias.

Ships and land can perfectly measure storm wind (at least to the threshold for HU or MH identification): if there is a systematic under- (over-)estimation of winds, this will lead to an under- (over-)estimation of historical frequency.

Ships did not attempt to, or were unable to, avoid storms: this assumption leads to an underestimate of the adjustment.

Modern era storm tracks are representative of the storm tracks that could have occurred in the pre-satellite era: errors in this assumption will lead to reductions in any real variations and changes in HU and MH activity. This would also lead to underestimates in the time-smoothed uncertainty estimates.

Sufficient information in addition to wind speed would be available to identify a HU or MH, if HU or MH winds are observed: this leads to an underestimate in the adjustment.

Assume that single HU or MH events were not inaccurately counted as multiple systems in HURDAT2: if this happened the storm count for that period would be biased high, all other factors equal

Trend measures

To measure the secular trend in the various measures of aggregate NA HU and MH activity, we fit statistical models using time as a covariate. For frequency statistics (e.g., the number of HUs or MHs striking the USA, and HU and MH basin-wide frequency), we model the counts through a Poisson regression model, such that the probability distribution of the annual count ( N x ) for each frequency metric ( x ; e.g., USA HU strikes, basin-wide MHs) is:

for which we use the available data for each quantity and assume that the rate of occurrence ( λ x (t) ) is a function of time through a logarithmic link function:

where t is time (measured in (years C.E/100), a x gives a measure of the base rate and b x gives a measure of the time dependence of the rate or the trend measure, for each frequency measure x (e.g., USA HU strikes, basin-wide MH). To summarize the time dependence of the rate parameter (trend), we show in Table 1 the time-dependent coefficient ( b x ) of the rate parameter of the Poisson regression ( λ x (t) ).

For ratio statistics (e.g., the MH/HU ratio), we model the counts through a Binomial distribution, such that the probability distribution of the annual count of the subset variable ( N y ) for each frequency ratio metric ( N y /N x ; e.g., MH/HU ratio) is:

for which we use the available data for each quantity to fit the probability of success ( µ x,y (t) ) as a function of time, through a logistic link function:

where t is time (measured in (years C.E. /100), a x,y gives a measure of the base probability and b x,y gives a measure of the time dependence of the probability, or the trend measure, for the ratio of each frequency measure ( N y /N x , e.g., MH/HU ratio). To summarize the time dependence of the probability (trend), we show in Table 2 the time-dependent coefficient ( b x,y ) of the probability of the Binomial regression ( μ x,y (t) ).

The Poisson and Binomial regression fit calculations are performed in R (ref. 48 ) using the freely available gamlss package (ref. 49 , 50 ). In Tables 1 and 2 , we report the values of the trend factor in the regressions ( b x for the Poisson regression and b x,y for the Binomial regression), along with the p- value of the time-dependent coefficient ( b x or b x,y ) estimated using the gamlss package.

Data availability

The median hurricane and major hurricane adjustments from 1851 to 2019 developed in this study, along with the 10,000-member Bootstrap resampling of each, are made freely and publicly available at the Department of Geosciences collection of the Princeton University DataSpace: https://doi.org/10.34770/epch-0h54 .

Code availability

Scripts and data used to generate figures are made freely and publicly available at the Department of Geosciences collection of the Princeton University DataSpace: https://doi.org/10.34770/epch-0h54 .

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Acknowledgements

We thank Mark DeMaria, John Lanzante, Hiroyuki Murakami, and Anna Johansson Vecchi. This work has been supported by NOAA/OCO (award NA18OAR4310418), the Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System (CIMES; NOAA award NA18OAR4320123) at Princeton University, and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) at Princeton University, the National Science Foundation under Grant EAR‐1840742 and USACE Institute for Water Resources. This publication was supported by the Princeton University Library Open Access Fund.

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Gabriel A. Vecchi

High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, FL, USA

Christopher Landsea

Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA

IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA

Gabriele Villarini

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA

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Contributions

G.A.V. and C.L. designed the study. G.A.V. and W.Z. performed analysis. G.V. and G.A.V. designed the statistical modeling of storm frequency. G.A.V. generated the figures and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. G.A.V., C.L., W.Z., G.V., and T.K. all contributed to the interpretation of the results and editing of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Gabriel A. Vecchi .

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Vecchi, G.A., Landsea, C., Zhang, W. et al. Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century. Nat Commun 12 , 4054 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5

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How to write a history research paper

Writing a research paper on a historical person seems like a pretty tough task that requires a lot of original sources for reading, finding apt material, classifying information and many other steps to write a proper work. History is known for its overwhelming and sometimes a bit too stale structure when it comes to the elucidation of events that can drive crazy with all the dates, meticulous descriptions and vague conclusions. However, do you know that deciding what a topic will be, means that you’re already half done? With this and a few tips on the structure, how to analyze and compose a text critically, writing research can be an easy and fascinating task to do.

To start with, it should be mentioned that there are a few kinds of historical research papers and choosing which one to follow is an important element of writing due to differences in their form, the way of material presented and, even, vocabulary. Some works might focus on telling a story in a chronological sequence (a.k.a narration) that follows a person’s lifetime synopsis, regarding their work, biography or simply specific aspects of their most famous deeds. Another type approaches the research from the perspective of analysis that usually follows a specific logic of events in the light of an estimated topic. Then, a paper can be focused on factual history, processing the reasons and grounds of why or why not something took place; or the way history is told by historians as a discipline, and what approaches and methods have been used to do so. Another way of composing a text about a historical person is to characterize cultural, social or economic shifts and changes that the person caused or was involved in.

With this in mind, choosing a topic, or in this case, a person is also an important elements to accomplish the task successfully. This requires the understanding that the best way to make an interesting report both for a writer and readers is to pick a historical person who gives an interest to the writer, especially if they have had a significant influence on social, political or any other dimension of society (Albert Einstein, John F. Kennedy, Queen Victoria, etc.), or someone who’s advocated civil rights (Nelson Mandela, Ruby Bridges, Harvey Milk, etc.) and so forth.

Coupled with finding a topic/person, it’s crucial to do a research about his or her accomplishments since writing a report on someone without even basic knowledge won’t be fruitful. Simple internet browsing might be not really helpful because general information is not very useful for citations in a history paper. Yet, general knowledge is a great tool to build up a structure and underscore important topics. When it comes to quotes, which are a must-have in any report, credible sources like books, archives, and personal letters will do splendidly as long as they are validated by experts.

However, scrutinizing a source is not enough since including a critical opinion on a matter makes a paper more captivating. For this, taking notes comes in hand as a tool of creativity and analysis. There are various ways of noting, from writing down passages to drawing brainstorming clouds, and it’s up to a writer to select one. With a specific technique, one is recommended to mark dates, names, place, sources (pages, authors, publication year, etc.). Also, concentrating on an exact piece of interest can save plenty of time, instead of dispersing attention on multiple tasks simultaneously.

When it comes to actually writing a historical research paper styles, it should start with the draft of a plan. An approximate outline of the structure, topics, and remarks give an idea of how the text will supposedly look like after it’s written. In order to do this, it’s recommended to note one-two sentences to each part of a report that indicates a certain topic that is to be explained. Also, it’s completely appropriate to simply write down keywords which are closely related and can facilitate creating a whole paragraph. Normally, a report is divided into the following parts.

How to write an introduction for a history research paper

The best way to start any critical paper is to use a citation or a statement that catches attention, explains the author’s motif on why specifically this historical figure has been chosen and, at the same time, is a leading thought of the whole work. Then, it’s followed by a set of general information about the figure including their full name, date, and place of birth, occupation and, most preferably, a rhetorical question that encourages the reader’s interest.

How to write a body paragraph for a research paper

This part is the main source of facts, dates, places, achievements, advantages, and disadvantages, criticism, etc. for a reader and it should be both informative and evidential. The best way to fill it up properly is to give from two to four statements justifying each paragraph’s main idea. It’s important to remember that interpretation of sources should be done where it’s possible, whereas citation where it’s necessary.

Moreover, it’s better to use past tenses and not relate events to the present, since it’s a research, not a reflection. Also, using personal pronouns like ‘I’ or ‘you’ and their derivatives is strongly shunned in historical articles. Therefore it’s better to use impersonal constructions and passive voice. In addition to this, good commenting of the context shows the author’s insight into the topic and objective, non-judgmental narration with the use of neutral vocabulary asserts professionalism and language proficiency.

How to write a conclusion for a research paper

Finishing a report might seem the easiest part of writing. However, any conclusion is a summary of the whole research, which demands meticulousness and laconism. The main task is to rephrase in short everything stated about, and if there were any rhetorical questions or attention-catchers in the beginning, they should be answered here. Introduction of any kind of new information in this part is a major mistake and should be avoided. Lastly, it’s always a good idea to finish a text with an open question or a suggestive statement.

Revising a paper

This final stage of writing grants the last opportunity to check personally, or ask someone, for spelling, stylistic or grammar mistakes; typos and, more importantly, the accuracy of the information and the text’s structure.

All things considered, from now on the question of ‘how to write a research paper on a historical person?’ should be a matter of the past. Best of luck!

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Imperatives for reducing methane emissions

The methane imperative

Lead article, explore article hub, read article explainer.

1 Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
2 The Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Israel
3 SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Leiden, Netherlands
4 World Energy Outlook Team, International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris, France
5 Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (IGSD), Washington, DC, United States
6 Department of Physics, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States
7 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
8 Earth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
9 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
10 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
11 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Université de Saclay, Saclay, France
12 Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, United States
13 Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
14 Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States

Anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions increases from the period 1850–1900 until 2019 are responsible for around 65% as much warming as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has caused to date, and large reductions in methane emissions are required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. However, methane emissions have been increasing rapidly since ~2006. This study shows that emissions are expected to continue to increase over the remainder of the 2020s if no greater action is taken and that increases in atmospheric methane are thus far outpacing projected growth rates. This increase has important implications for reaching net zero CO 2 targets: every 50 Mt CH 4 of the sustained large cuts envisioned under low-warming scenarios that are not realized would eliminate about 150 Gt of the remaining CO 2 budget. Targeted methane reductions are therefore a critical component alongside decarbonization to minimize global warming. We describe additional linkages between methane mitigation options and CO 2 , especially via land use, as well as their respective climate impacts and associated metrics. We explain why a net zero target specifically for methane is neither necessary nor plausible. Analyses show where reductions are most feasible at the national and sectoral levels given limited resources, for example, to meet the Global Methane Pledge target, but they also reveal large uncertainties. Despite these uncertainties, many mitigation costs are clearly low relative to real-world financial instruments and very low compared with methane damage estimates, but legally binding regulations and methane pricing are needed to meet climate goals.

The atmospheric methane growth rates of the 2020s far exceed the latest baseline projections; methane emissions need to drop rapidly (as do CO 2 emissions) to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
The abrupt and rapid increase in methane growth rates in the early 2020s is likely attributable largely to the response of wetlands to warming with additional contributions from fossil fuel use, in both cases implying that anthropogenic emissions must decrease more than expected to reach a given warming goal.
Rapid reductions in methane emissions this decade are essential to slowing warming in the near future, limiting overshoot by the middle of the century and keeping low-warming carbon budgets within reach.
Methane and CO 2 mitigation are linked, as land area requirements to reach net zero CO 2 are about 50–100 million ha per GtCO 2 removal via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage or afforestation; reduced pasture is the most common source of land in low-warming scenarios.
Strong, rapid, and sustained methane emission reduction is part of the broader climate mitigation agenda and complementary to targets for CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases, but a net zero target specifically for methane is neither necessary nor plausible.
Many mitigation costs are low relative to real-world financial instruments and very low compared with methane damage estimates, but legally binding regulations and widespread pricing are needed to encourage the uptake of even negative cost options.

Introduction

Worldwide efforts to limit climate change are rightly focused on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the primary driver ( 1 ). However, since humanity has failed to adequately address climate change for several decades, keeping warming below agreed goals now requires that we address all major climate pollutants. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas driving climate change. Out of a total observed warming of 1.07°C during the period 2010 to 2019, the Working Group I (WGI) 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) attributed 0.5°C to methane emissions ( 1 ). However, in many respects, methane mitigation has been neglected relative to CO 2 . For example, only ~2% of global climate finance is estimated to go towards methane abatement ( 2 ). Similarly, only about 13% of global methane emissions are covered by current policy mechanisms ( 3 ). With dramatic climate changes already occurring and methane providing substantial leverage to slow warming in the near future and reduce surface ozone pollution, political will to mitigate methane has recently increased, especially following the Global Methane Assessment (GMA) published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) in May 2021 ( 4 ). The Assessment showed that reducing methane was an extremely cost-effective way to rapidly slow warming and contribute to climate stabilization while also providing large benefits to human health, crop yield, and labor productivity. The GMA also demonstrated that various technical and behavioral options were currently available to achieve such emission cuts. Drawing upon that Assessment and related analysis ( 5 ), the United States and European Union launched the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) in November 2021 at the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26), under which countries set a collective goal of reducing anthropogenic methane emissions by at least 30% (relative to 2020 levels) by 2030. By COP28 in November 2023, participation in the GMP had increased to 155 countries that collectively account for more than half of global anthropogenic methane emissions.

However, far more needs to be done if the world is to change the current methane trajectory and meet the goals of the GMP and other national pledges. This article presents three imperatives supported by a series of analyses (detailed further in Methods):

● Imperative 1—to change course and reverse methane emissions growth—describes changes in methane observed during the recent past and projected for the near future and compares these with low-warming scenarios (Analysis A).

● Imperative 2—to align methane and CO 2 mitigation — discusses methane targets and metrics (Analysis B), investigates the connections between methane emissions and CO 2 mitigation efforts (Analysis C), and assesses their impacts (Analyses D–F).

● Imperative 3—to optimize methane abatement options and policies—presents analyses of the mitigation potential of national-level abatement options (Analysis G) and evaluates their cost-effectiveness (Analysis H) across the 50 countries with greatest mitigation potential by subsector (i.e., landfill, coal, oil, and gas) using a novel tool. We also compare profit versus pricing from controlling methane emissions from oil production (Analysis I) and describe ongoing efforts to support national and regional decision-making.

Finally, we outline paths forward for improving scientific understanding of methane emissions, abatement opportunities, and physical processes that will affect future methane levels in the atmosphere.

Imperative 1—to change course and reverse methane emissions growth

Atmospheric methane concentrations are rising faster than projections.

Scenarios consistent with temperature goals to limit warming to 1.5°C, or well below 2°C, with no or limited overshoot include large and rapid reductions in methane ( 4 , 6 ). In the real world, however, atmospheric methane has been rising rapidly since 2006 and by the end of the 2010s reached 5-year average growth rates not seen since the 1980s ( 4 , 7 , 8 ). Methane concentration increases in 2021 are the largest recorded, with high values throughout the period 2020 to 2023 (Analysis A; Figure 1A ). The uncertainty ranges from the ground-based and satellite datasets typically overlap, leading to high confidence in the growth rate values. Using a mass balance approach assuming that the methane loss rate is proportional to the atmospheric methane loading (i.e., a constant methane atmospheric lifetime of 9.1 yr) ( 12 ), emissions appear to have risen substantially from 2020 to 2023 ( Figure 1B ).

Figure 1 Accelerating methane growth rates and emissions over recent decades. (A) Observed methane annual growth rates (ppb yr −1 ) through 2022 or 2023 from the ground-based networks of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ( 9 ) and the World Meteorological Organization ( 10 ) and from satellite data from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) ( 11 ) total column datasets. (B) Estimated emissions and sinks through 2023 based on the NOAA abundance observations. Emissions and sinks estimates are based on a simple box model assuming sinks are proportional to the atmospheric abundance of methane. Uncertainties in the ground-based and satellite data are around 0.5 ppb yr −1 , and 3 ppb yr −1 , respectively. See Methods (Analysis A) for further details. Data for this and other figures are available in Supplementary Table 1 .

We compare the observed atmospheric methane growth rates with values under recent baseline scenarios developed with integrated assessment models (IAMs) in the early 2020s and “bottom-up” engineering approach models. All include data on actual developments through the period ~2018 to 2020 ( 13 ). The observed growth rates are roughly 1.5- to 2.5-fold higher than the multi-model mean baseline or bottom-up projections from 2020 to 2022 ( Figure 2 ). The observed growth rates also exceed any individual model’s baseline projections during that period. Observed 2023 growth rates show the highest values of any individual model, well above multi-model means or bottom-up analyses. Baseline scenarios are used to analyze how additional technical, behavioral, and policy options can mitigate climate change. That real-world methane growth rates exceed baseline projections therefore indicates that policies may have to be even stronger than those in existing analyses to reach the Paris Agreement’s goals. Indeed, comparisons of observed atmospheric growth rates with those in 1.5°C-consistent scenarios (using the 2018 IPCC scenarios that did not include observations past 2017) show enormous differences ( Figure 2 ), emphasizing how much stronger policies need to be to reach low-warming goals.

Figure 2 Projected and observed methane growth rates. Methane abundance growth rates during the 2020s from baseline scenarios from the ADVANCE ( https://www.fp7-advance.eu/ ), NAVIGATE ( https://www.navigate-h2020.eu/ ) ( 14 ), and ENGAGE ( https://www.engage-climate.org/ ) projects using integrated assessment models (IAMs; data show multi-model means) and from the “bottom-up” analyses of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( 15 ) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ( 16 ) (solid lines). Modeled baseline values are averages for the 2020–2025 and 2025–2030 periods as data were produced at 5-year intervals. The shaded area shows the full range across the four to six IAMs for each scenario. Scenario concentration changes are derived from scenario emissions using a simple box model and assumed constant natural emissions of around 200 million tonnes (Mt) yr −1 . Growth rates under 1.5°C-consistent scenarios with policies beginning in 2015 ( 17 ) are also shown for comparison along with their full ranges. Projected rates are compared with observations (circles) from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observation network with 1 standard deviation uncertainties. See Methods (Analysis A) for further details.

Causes of increased methane growth rates and discrepancies with baseline scenarios

Multiple assessments have concluded that the growth in methane concentrations over the 2007–2019 period is largely attributable to increased emissions from fossil fuels and livestock ( 18 – 21 ). However, some studies attribute much of this increase to wetlands (particularly in the tropics)—an attribution potentially supported by isotopic data indicating increased biogenic methane ( 22 – 25 ). In general, longer-term increases in wetland methane emissions (resulting from a human-caused warming climate) are expected to be small over these years as the climate feedback is weak according to models, modern observations, and paleoclimate data ( 19 , 25 – 30 ). Methane emissions associated with thawing permafrost and glacial retreat are also expected to increase as the climate warms, though the magnitude is thought to be small and quite uncertain ( 19 , 31 , 32 ). A small portion of this longer-term increase in the growth rate may be due to growing areas of rice cultivation in Africa ( 33 ). Over the longer 2007–2019 period, there thus remains ambiguity in the cause of observed emission trends given geographical and sectorial methane source diversity.

Investigations into the cause of the large increase in the growth rate in the 2020–2023 period relative to the prior years are just beginning. Some atmospheric-chemistry transport modeling studies have attributed more than half of the increased growth in 2020 relative to 2019 to changes in methane removal owing to a decline in the hydroxyl radical OH driven by COVID-19-related changes in emissions, primarily decreases in nitrogen oxides ( 34 – 36 ). However, other changes that constrain methane removal rates using methane observations attribute just 14–34% of the increased 2020 growth rate to changes in the sink ( 37 , 38 ). The persistence of the very high growth rates in 2021 and 2022 also supports evidence of the role of reductions in OH and methane loss rates driven by COVID-19-related emissions changes. This is consistent with Feng et al. ( 38 ), who found the role of sink changes decreased from ~34% in 2020 to just 10% in 2021. Thus, changes in methane removal appear unlikely to play a dominant role in driving the higher 2020–2023 growth rates.

Sink changes playing a minor role implies that the jump in the growth rate from 7 to 10 ppb yr −1 during the 2015–2019 period to ~12–18 ppb yr −1 during the 2020–2023 period is attributable to increased emissions, which can be examined using “bottom-up” analyses. Emission increases are unlikely to be attributable to the waste or agriculture sectors, which vary minimally from year to year. For example, global cattle numbers grew at an average rate of 1.1% yr −1 over the 2020–2022 period; this was only modestly larger than the 0.9% yr −1 average over the 2015–2019 period ( 39 ). This translates to an increase of <1 Tg yr −1 assuming constant methane emissions per animal, a small fraction of the implied emissions increase ( Figure 1B ) (and in contrast to the longer-term growth in cattle numbers which leads to an increase of ~10 Tg yr −1 over the 2007–2019 period). The more rapid growth of atmospheric methane over the 2020–2023 period therefore appears to be primarily linked to increased emissions from fossil fuels and wetlands, which together may account for the underestimated growth rates in the IAMs ( Figure 2 ).

For fossil fuels, there is evidence that investments in midstream capacity have been inadequate to keep up with the volume of extracted gas as firms ramp up production. For instance, the state-owned oil company in Mexico flared ~63 billion cubic feet of gas from a single field (Ixachi) over the 2020–2022 period, representing more than 30% of the field’s total production and being in violation of Mexican law ( 40 ). Flaring to mitigate methane release is imperfect in the field: aerial measurements over multiple United States oil and gas regions indicate an efficiency of around 91% owing to both incomplete combustion and unlit flares, which, combined with large volumes of flared gas due to midstream capacity shortages, results in large methane emissions ( 41 , 42 ). Studies report inefficient or inactive flares in other regions, such as Turkmenistan ( 43 ).

Additionally, some projections incorporate current emissions from national reporting, whereas studies using atmospheric inversions from satellite data suggest that oil- and gas-extracting countries in central Asia and the Persian Gulf region typically systematically underreport their emissions ( 44 ). This is similar to findings for the United States and Canada ( 45 , 46 ). National reporting also generally omits so-called super-emitters ( 47 – 49 ), which are discussed further below. Large underestimates in initial methane emissions could lead to underestimated emission growth. Discrete events may have also played a role, with the COVID-19 pandemic being linked to increased methane emissions from the energy sector in early 2020 ( 50 ) and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine causing increased efforts to expand supplies of gas and coal ( 51 ). There are thus several reasons fossil fuel emissions might be growing faster than in baseline scenarios.

However, increased methane emissions from wetlands appear likely to have driven a larger portion of the higher 2020–2022 growth rates based on the latitudinal gradients of growth rates and a trend toward lighter (biogenic) isotopes of atmospheric methane ( 52 ). The cause may be in part a persistent La Niña pattern that likely enhanced tropical wetland methane emissions during the 2020–2022 period. The wetland methane increase has been estimated at ~4–12 million tonnes (Mt) yr −1 based on empirical analyses of prior events ( 25 , 53 , 54 ), though another study found a weaker La Niña impact on methane ( 55 ). A recent modeling study shows a rise of ~5 Mt yr −1 in the wetland methane flux for the 2020–2021 period relative to the prior 3 years ( 25 ), predominantly from tropical ecosystems and consistent with satellite studies ( 38 ). Wetlands were also implicated in earlier analyses of the 2020 growth rate increase relative to 2019 ( 35 ), with an especially large increase in emissions from Africa ( 37 ). A rise of ~5 Mt yr −1 would be a relatively modest contribution to the overall jump in emissions estimated at ~30 Mt yr −1 for the 2020–2022 period relative to the prior 5 years ( Figure 1A ). There are, however, substantial uncertainties in terms of tropical wetland methane emissions ( 56 ), and modeled wetland methane emissions may be biased substantially low, especially over Africa ( 57 , 58 ), so the increase shown in the models may be an underestimate. The La Niña is superimposed on anthropogenic warming and changes in climate extremes that could also lead to higher wetland methane fluxes than in previous La Niña events.

A switch from La Niña to El Niño during 2023 appears to have reduced the observed growth rate ( Figure 2 ), supporting a large role for wetland responses to La Niña in the very high 2020–2022 growth rates. However, emissions appear to have remained substantially higher in 2023 relative to pre-2020 values ( Figure 1B ), suggesting longer-term contributions from increasing anthropogenic sources along with a forced trend in natural sources. Recent work also suggests a potentially permanent shift to an altered state of enhanced wetland methane emissions ( 8 ). The next 5–10 years of monitoring will, therefore, be critical in understanding both short- and long-term feedback and drivers of accelerated growth rates. While current estimates suggest increases in fossil fuel emissions, especially wetland methane, likely dominated the growth rate jump after 2019, reconciliation of observed growth rates with emissions inventories remains elusive. Regardless of the relative contribution of the two most probable major sources of the longer-term 2007–2023 increase in growth rates—i.e., wetland feedback from human-driven warming and human-driven emissions—the implications are identical: anthropogenic emissions must decrease more than previously expected to reach a given climate goal.

Imperative 2—to align methane and carbon dioxide mitigation

Methane and co 2 emissions targets.

As methane targets are currently being set in many countries, it is important to understand how these fit within the broader climate change mitigation agenda and the push for “net zero CO 2 ”. Least-cost 1.5°C- and 2°C-consistent scenarios require major and rapid reductions in methane alongside CO 2 ( 4 , 6 , 17 ). For example, AR6 1.5°C scenarios with limited or no overshoot achieve net zero CO 2 emissions around the middle of the century while methane emissions decrease by a mean of 35% (standard deviation: ±10%) in 2030, 46% (±8%) in 2040, and 53% (±8%) in 2050 relative to 2020 levels (Analysis B; Figure 3 ) ( 59 ). Global emissions targets well within these ranges, as in the Global Methane Pledge, are thus aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement. Delaying methane reductions past the timescales in 1.5°C-consistent scenarios risks higher overshoot, peak temperatures, and costs.

Figure 3 Decrease in total methane emissions and increase in agricultural share of the remainder in 1.5°C-consistent scenarios. Mean decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions relative to 2020 under least-cost 1.5°C consistent scenarios with policies beginning around 2020, including the standard deviation across the 53 scenarios analyzed and the maximum and minimum values across the scenarios. Also shown is the mean share of anthropogenic emissions from the agriculture sector in the same scenarios. All scenarios for which agricultural as well as total emissions were available were included ( 59 ). Note that the median scenario is virtually identical to the mean shown here. See Methods (Analysis B) for further details.

Net zero CO 2 emissions is a relevant concept because options are available currently to drastically reduce CO 2 in almost all emitting sectors, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options, including afforestation, exist for the remainder. Removal options are in the early research stages and are not currently available for methane or nitrous oxide (N 2 O). For those gases, we therefore discuss “zero anthropogenic emissions” (i.e., without the “net”).

The vastly different lifetimes of methane and CO 2 lead to markedly different requirements for zero-emission targets. CO 2 , as well as other long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) such as N 2 O and many fluorinated gases, accumulates in the atmosphere; emissions must thus reach net zero to achieve long-term climate stabilization ( 17 ). In contrast, methane and other short-lived pollutants do not accumulate, and hence long-term climate stabilization requires only constant emissions rather than zero, with weakly decreasing emissions yielding shorter-term stabilization. Consistent with this and owing to the difficulty in reaching zero emissions in some sectors such as agriculture, none of the least-cost 1.5°C-consistent scenarios achieve zero methane ( Figure 3 ).

Discussion of net zero GHG targets could easily be misinterpreted to imply that we can wait to reduce non-CO 2 emissions since those scenarios that do achieve net zero GHGs reach net zero CO 2 first. For long-term climate stabilization, the temperature depends upon the total LLGHGs emitted before reaching net zero along with the continuing short-lived pollutant emissions rate at that time, and there exists a similar relationship for peak temperatures under a peak-and-decline scenario. Article 4.1 of the Paris Climate Agreement calls for “balancing sources and removals of GHGs”, but this applies to all GHGs collectively. Achieving such a balance for methane is neither required under Article 4.1 nor for meeting the temperature goals established in Article 2 of the Agreement. In practice, methane emission projections in 1.5°C-consistent scenarios are substantial through 2100 ( Figure 3 ). Thus, scenarios that achieve net zero GHGs accomplish this not by lowering non-CO 2 emissions to zero but by aggressive deployment of CDR that offsets residual methane and N 2 O. This leads to gradually decreasing warming, a requirement during overshoot scenarios. Reducing warming after reaching net zero CO 2 thus requires CDR, reductions of methane and/or N 2 O, or a combination of these. Such reductions often lead to net zero GHGs by 2100 but not always ( 6 ). This suggests that while net zero GHGs may be a laudable post-net zero CO 2 goal, it might be more useful to focus separately on net LLGHG and methane targets than on net zero GHGs, which combine long- and short-lived pollutants in a metric-dependent way that obscures policy-relevant information ( 60 ) and may not be required or may be insufficient to achieve a given temperature target depending upon prior emissions.

Additionally, residual methane emissions in 1.5°C-consistent scenarios are dominated by the agricultural sector ( Figure 3 ). A net zero GHG target that was interpreted as requiring zero methane could thus lead to conflicts between the pressure to reduce emissions from agriculture and the need to feed the world’s population. Though reducing agricultural emissions of both LLGHGs and methane is necessary and feasible ( 4 , 61 , 62 ), planning for net zero GHGs may lead to unrealistic expectations that could hinder progress in some countries and sectors. We, therefore, recommend that targets be formulated using net LLGHG emissions but total emission levels for short-lived pollutants.

There is an interplay between these two factors, as the higher the level at which emissions of short-lived warming pollutants remain the less total LLGHG emissions are permitted until reaching net zero to achieve a given warming level. This can be quantified using the remaining carbon budget for a particular temperature goal. To have a two-thirds chance of staying below 2°C, the remaining CO 2 budget from 2020 is ~1150 GtCO 2 ( 19 ), assuming roughly 35% reductions in methane by 2050. Every 100 Mt yr −1 of methane not permanently cut would take away about 300 GtCO 2 from the CO 2 budget over the next 50–100 years ( 63 ). This highlights the critical role of methane reductions in facilitating a plausible CO 2 reduction trajectory consistent with the Paris Agreement: the remaining carbon budget would otherwise become too small to make achieving those goals feasible ( 64 , 65 ).

Similarly, the more methane has been reduced upon reaching net zero CO 2 emissions the less CDR would be required. For example, every additional 50 Mt yr −1 of methane permanently reduced would offset the need for ~150 Gt GtCO 2 CDR over the following few decades [and >200 Gt GtCO 2 over the longer term ( 66 )]. Given the many challenges and potential negative impacts of CDR ( 19 , 67 , 68 ), this continues to motivate us to pursue the greatest possible methane reductions.

Measuring progress: methane and CO 2 metrics

In addition to setting sound targets, it is important to use appropriate metrics to measure progress. Evaluations typically use so-called “CO 2 -equivalence” (CO 2 e), which combines all gases using the global warming potential (GWP) at a fixed time horizon, generally 100 years [e.g., ( 66 )]. Using any single timescale to compare short-lived pollutants and LLGHGs provides an incomplete picture [e.g., ( 69 )]. More complete climate information is gained by using multiple timescales ( 70 , 71 ), among other means.

A new metric, GWP*, represents the differing effects of changes in short- and long-lived emissions on future global mean temperatures better than GWP ( 72 ). As such, the GWP* metric captures the 50–100-year relationship between continued methane emissions and the carbon budget. Hence, GWP* can be useful when examining decadal-century scale temperature changes, though multiple metrics better reflect the multiple timescales of potential interest. GWP* is applied to sustained changes in emissions, requiring careful consideration of the fact that every tonne of methane emission that persists decreases the remaining carbon budget.

One could evaluate the contribution of emissions relative to preindustrial levels using GWP*, which would show the large warming impact of present-day methane emissions ( 60 ). However, some countries and companies have used GWP* to suggest that since keeping current methane emissions constant does not add additional future warming, continued constant high levels of methane emissions are therefore not problematic and a reduction of their methane emissions is equivalent to CO 2 removal [e.g., ( 73 – 75 )]. This use of GWP* to justify the continuance of current emission levels essentially ignores emissions responsible for roughly half the warming to date and appears to exempt current high methane emitters from mitigation. This is neither equitable nor consistent with keeping carbon budgets within reach. Many current high emitters are wealthy groups, and the use of GWP* to evaluate changes relative to current levels implies the wealthy consuming or profiting from a large amount of methane-emitting products (such as gas, oil, or cattle-based foods) has no impact, whereas the poor, who currently consume little, would be penalized for consuming more ( 76 ). Policymakers should also consider impacts beyond climate when choosing policies affecting methane ( 4 , 77 – 79 ).

Connections between methane and CO 2 mitigation options

Though the different lifetimes of methane and CO 2 have profound implications for target setting and metrics, the separation between short- and long-lived pollutants is not complete. Much like other short-lived pollutants, methane induces climate changes that affect the carbon cycle—thereby exerting a long-term impact ( 80 , 81 ). This carbon-cycle response to warming adds ~5% to the forcing attributable to methane emissions. Additionally, methane emissions lead to increased surface ozone, which is harmful to many plants and reduces terrestrial carbon uptake. Climate impacts of methane emissions could be increased by up to 10% considering ozone–vegetation interactions ( 12 ).

In addition to these Earth system interactions, mitigation options also link methane and CO 2 . Decarbonization policies phasing out fossil fuels would clearly reduce fossil sector methane emissions. However, those reductions would produce only about one-third of the methane reductions in 1.5°C scenarios by 2030 ( 4 , 82 ). The use of non-fossil methane sources for energy production also modestly reduces CO 2 emissions by displacing demand for fossil fuels, adding ~10% to the long-term and ~3% to the near-term climate effect of methane capture. Other estimates suggest that using non-fossil methane for power generation could increase the monetized environmental benefits of methane capture even further—by 14% and 25% for discount rates of 4% and 10%, respectively. These larger values reflect the inclusion of both climate and air pollution damages and stem primarily from reduced air pollutants associated with coal burning ( 78 ).

Another intersection between decarbonization and methane could occur in a hydrogen economy. Fugitive methane emission rates above ~2% would cancel the near-term climate benefits of “blue hydrogen” with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) compared to burning natural gas ( 83 ). Furthermore, hydrogen leakage would extend methane’s lifetime by lowering the atmospheric oxidative capacity [e.g., ( 84 , 85 )].

Land use also links mitigation options for methane and CO 2 . There are large land area requirements for either bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) or afforestation, two sources of CDR that most low-warming scenarios require to compensate for slow decarbonization and/or continued emissions from the sectors most difficult to decarbonize ( 17 ). Given the demands on arable land to feed a growing population and the urgent need to restore and conserve biodiversity, a plausible source of additional land is reduced numbers of pasture-raised livestock, which could also reduce methane emissions.

To probe this connection, we examined 145 least-cost 1.5°C scenarios for which trends in pasture area and BECCS deployment were available (Analysis C) ( 86 ). The deployment of BECCS closely mirrors a decline in pasture area in these scenarios ( Figure 4A ), a relationship noted but not quantified in AR6 ( 59 ). Examining the multi-model mean decadal changes from the 2040s onwards, when deployment of BECCS is large enough to show clear trends, we find highly correlated changes, with every 10 exajoule (EJ) of BECCS associated with ~38 million ha pasture area decrease ( Figure 4B ) and ~0.5 Gt yr −1 CO 2 removal. Adding in the 2030s increases the slope to 42 million ha per 10 EJ, whereas examining each individual scenario’s changes, rather than the multi-model mean, shows the slope is 28 million ha per 10 EJ. These comparisons give a sense of the robustness associated with this relationship.

Figure 4 Trade-offs between land use for pasture and for carbon uptake. (A) Multi-model mean trends in bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) deployment and in pasture area in the 145 available least-cost 1.5°C scenarios. (B) Correlation between decadal changes in the multi-model means of these two quantities from the 2040s to 2090s. Data are from seven integrated assessment models (IAMs) from the 2022 AR6 scenario database ( 86 ). Also shown are land use changes from simulations covering 22–106 <2°C scenarios per model in individual IAMs for 2020–2050 (C) and 2050–2100 (D) , including linear trend estimates across the scenarios. See Methods (Analysis C) for further details.

For reforestation and afforestation, meeting goals in national climate pledges is projected to require almost 1.2 billion ha of land ( 87 ). For context, the current crop area is about 1.2 billion ha (including animal fodder), so changes in land used for crops for humans would be too small to provide the land needed while maintaining food security. While some land needs might be met via restoration of degraded lands, more than half was estimated to require conversion of pasture or land currently used for animal fodder.

To evaluate the relationship between afforestation plus biofuel land use and pasture, we examined a larger AR6 set of scenarios that keep warming below 2°C, finding 266 scenarios (Analysis C). Averaged across the models, pasture area decreases by 1.1 ha per 1 ha land used for carbon uptake from 2020–2050 and by 0.6 ha from 2050–2100. Assuming carbon uptake per ha biofuel crops is similar to afforestation, this corresponds to ~94 million and 54 million ha of pasture required per GtCO 2 removal, with a range of 28–251 million ha across the models. This range encompasses the results based on BECCS alone in the 1.5°C scenarios. Together, these analyses show robust evidence of a tradeoff between land used for CDR and pasture with a value that is highly model-dependent. In the four models including afforestation, changes in land deployed for carbon uptake are highly correlated with pasture decreases across the scenarios, with R 2 >0.6 and 0.4 for 2020–2050 and 2050–2100, respectively ( Figures 4C, D ). Within the IAMs, MESSAGE and REMIND show fairly linear relationships whereas the land use tradeoff is more dependent on the scenario in WITCH and IMAGE ( Figures 4C, D ). Land for CDR is used primarily for BECCS in MESSAGE and WITCH, primarily for afforestation in IMAGE, and comparably for those options in REMIND, highlighting that the tradeoff with pasture holds for all uptake options deployed in the models. Inter-model differences presumably stem from varying assumptions about the availability of non-agricultural land for afforestation, changes in non-energy crop area, and the intensity of carbon uptake via afforestation or energy crops.

The results show that shifting livestock practices, especially healthier dietary choices that in many places lead to reduced consumption of cattle-based foods and hence decreased livestock numbers, not only affect methane emissions but are also tightly coupled with CDR strategies ( 88 ). Both current pledges for biological carbon removal and BECCS deployment at the scales envisioned in many scenarios likely require large reductions in pasture area, and dietary changes could free up pasture without risking food security. We note that both biological carbon removal and BECCS come with substantial challenges and side effects that affect the likelihood that they will ever be societally acceptable at scale ( 19 , 87 ).

In summary, reductions in methane emissions are not just complementary to CO 2 reductions but can directly contribute to reduced atmospheric CO 2 via carbon cycle interactions and fossil fuel displacement. They can also potentially play an important role in facilitating the deployment of, as well as reducing the need for, CDR; this could reduce additional feedback, including increased volatile biogenic compound emissions following afforestation that might increase methane’s lifetime ( 89 ).

Impacts of methane and carbon dioxide mitigation

As noted, methane emissions are estimated to account for 0.5°C of the total observed warming of 1.07°C through the 2010–2019 period ( 1 ). As the climate is affected by both warming and cooling pollutants, the attribution of the fraction of observed warming to a specific component depends on which drivers are included in the comparison. Compared with the total observed warming, methane emissions are responsible for ~47% of that value; in comparison with the warming attributable to all well-mixed GHGs, methane emissions are responsible for ~34%; and in comparison with the temperature increase due to all warming agents, methane emissions contribute ~28%. As the overlap between methane sources and other climate drivers is relatively limited, methane could potentially be reduced with only modest effects on other emissions. Comparison with observed net warming may therefore be most useful, but each of these comparisons is useful for specific purposes. To prevent public confusion, presentations that imply methane’s contribution is being evaluated against observed warming when it is not and that do not state if they are referring to emissions or concentrations, such as the common statement that methane is responsible for around 30% of global warming since pre-industrial times [e.g., ( 90 , 91 )], should be avoided. Note also that the share of warming attributable to a given driver varies depending upon the baseline period (1850–1900 in AR6).

Emission reduction policies that target methane and CO 2 have complementary and additive benefits for the climate. We analyzed the response of global mean annual average surface air temperatures to emissions under various scenarios to isolate the effects of decarbonization and targeted methane emission controls (Analysis D). Contemporaneous reductions in cooling aerosols associated with decarbonization lead to modest net warming over the first few decades [e.g., ( 13 , 92 – 95 )]. Given the smaller role of other non-CO 2 climate pollutants, methane emission cuts therefore provide the strongest leverage for near-term warming reduction ( Figure 5 ) ( 13 , 95 ). Achievement of methane reductions consistent with the average in 1.5°C scenarios could reduce warming by ~0.3°C by 2050 in comparison with baseline increases ( 4 ). A hypothetical complete elimination of anthropogenic methane emissions could avert up to 1°C of warming by 2050 relative to the high emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP; ( 96 )] SSP3–7.0 scenario ( 97 ). This large near-term impact partly reflects methane’s short lifetime; >90% of increased atmospheric methane would be removed within 30 years of an abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions compared with only ~25% of increased CO 2 following CO 2 emission cessation ( 98 ). Encouragingly, were humanity to abruptly cease emissions, the present combined anthropogenic CO 2 and methane concentration increases versus preindustrial [weighted by their warming contributions, including the ozone response to methane ( 12 )] levels would be halved within 30 years. Hence the near-term “Zero Emissions Commitment” of warming already “in the pipeline” ( 19 , 99 ) is much smaller considering both methane and CO 2 rather than CO 2 alone.

Figure 5 Climate impacts of decarbonization and methane reductions. The climate response (measured by change in global mean surface temperature relative to 2020 values) to reductions of all pollutants (including methane) under a decarbonization scenario; methane alone under a decarbonization scenario that substantially reduces energy sector emissions and under a 1.5°C scenario; and decarbonization and methane reductions consistent with 1.5°C—all relative to constant 2020 emissions. Values are averages across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1, 2, and 5 (1.5°C was infeasible under SSP3 in four of four models and under SSP4 in two of three models). See Methods (Analysis D) for further details.

Policies leading to rapid and deep cuts in both CO 2 and methane provide the strongest benefits across the century ( Figures 5 ; 6A ). To further characterize the relative contributions, we analyzed temperature responses, and their effects on premature mortality, applied to various mitigation options under the “middle-of-the-road” SSP2 (Analysis E). Importantly, future CO 2 emissions exert the strongest leverage on long-term climate change, and successfully targeted methane reduction without simultaneous CO 2 reductions over the next 10–30 years would therefore merely delay long-term warming ( Figure 6A ). Conversely, successful reduction of CO 2 (and co-emissions) without simultaneous additional targeted methane reduction over this period would weakly affect long-term temperatures if methane reductions were achieved later ( Figure 6A ) but would lead to higher warming and substantially increased risk of overshooting warming thresholds over the next few decades. In addition to the impacts on warming, a 20-year delay in methane reductions from 2020 to 2040 would also lead to 4.2 (1.3–6.8; 95% confidence) million additional premature deaths due to ozone exposure by 2050 that could have been avoided with rapid methane reductions based on our standard epidemiological estimates ( Figure 6B ). That value becomes ~8.8 (5.5–11.1) million additional deaths using alternative cardiovascular and additional child-mortality relationships (Analysis E).

Figure 6 Temperature and health impacts of methane abatement under various scenarios. (A) Climate response (measured by change in global mean surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 values) to all pollutants under the baseline Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2 scenario; the SSP2 baseline plus methane abatement consistent with a 1.5°C scenario; the SSP2 1.5°C scenario (SSP2–1.9); the SSP2 1.5°C scenario without any additional methane abatement beyond that occurring due to the phase-out of fossil fuels; and the SSP2 1.5°C scenario with additional methane abatement beyond that occurring due to the phase-out of fossil fuels beginning in 2040 rather than 2020. (B) Avoided premature deaths resulting from methane reductions relative to those under the SSP2 baseline (note that SSP2 baseline plus methane abatement consistent with a 1.5°C scenario is identical to the SSP2 1.5°C scenario for this impact and so is not shown). See Methods (Analysis E) for further details.

In addition to reducing early deaths, cutting methane emissions will reduce near-term warming impacts on labor, which grow non-linearly with warming ( 100 ). We used our climate Analysis E as the basis to estimate corresponding labor effects of changing heat exposure (Analysis F). Assuming outdoor workers are in the shade, achieving 1.5°C-consistent methane abatement under SSP2 avoids roughly US$250 billion in worldwide potential heavy outdoor labor losses by 2050 (range US$190–US$390 over impact functions; values in 2017 US$ purchasing power parity). However, for outdoor workers in the sun, benefits would be roughly US$315 billion (range US$211–US$475). These values, for heavy outdoor labor only, are not comparable to impacts covering medium and light labor (for which the evidence base is weaker).

Imperative 3—to optimize methane abatement options and policies

Global context.

Despite substantial uncertainties in emissions from specific subsectors, global-scale anthropogenic methane emissions are reasonably well-constrained. Agriculture and fossil fuel emissions have comparable magnitudes (each ~130–150 Mt yr −1 ) roughly twice that of the waste sector (~70–75 Mt yr −1 ) ( 4 , 101 ). Abatement technologies are available in each sector ( 102 ) and, with modest projected improvements over time, could provide reductions of 29–62 Mt yr −1 in the oil and gas subsectors together, 12–25 Mt yr −1 in the coal subsector, 29–36 Mt yr −1 in the waste sector, and 6–9 Mt yr −1 from rice cultivation in 2030 ( 4 , 90 ). Estimated abatement for livestock ranges from 4–42 Mt yr −1 , depending upon factors such as the assumed potential to adopt higher productivity breeds and/or reduce total animal numbers. Technical abatement could be enhanced with nascent technologies such as methane inhibitors for ruminants, cultured and alternative proteins, and, in the waste sector, biocovers, black soldier flies, and waste-to-plastic substitute systems.

Many technological abatement options capture concentrated flows of methane, allowing it to be used as natural gas, generating revenue that lowers net costs. Defining low-cost as <US$600 per tonne of methane (in 2018 US$), low-cost abatement potentials represent 60–98% of the total for oil/gas, 55–98% for coal, and ~30–60% for waste ( 4 , 89 ). Technical options with net negative costs could reduce total emissions by ~40 Mt yr −1 , with the greatest potential being in the oil/gas and waste sectors ( 4 ).

Systemic and behavioral choices, such as fuel switching and demand management, also affect methane emissions and are particularly important in the food sector. Cattle account for about 70% of livestock emissions, with ~25% from regions with high reliance on intensive systems (primarily Europe and North America) most suitable for technical solutions ( 15 ). In other areas, extensive grazing systems are common, limiting technical solutions ( 61 ). For sizeable reductions in livestock emissions, cuts in animal stocks will therefore be necessary. Shifts to more plant-based diets could bring health benefits in regions with high intake of animal protein ( 103 , 104 ), and, as discussed above, this is important for providing areas for CDR deployment. Such shifts could reduce methane emissions by ~15–30 Mt yr −1 over the coming ~10–25 years ( 4 ). In regions with low protein intake but large cattle herds, productivity should be increased in conjunction with enhancement of the economic resilience of pastoralist communities ( 105 ). The latter requires improved access to affordable healthcare, education, and credit markets to enable management of financial risks without reliance on large livestock herds.

Achieving ~40–50% reductions in food loss and waste could reduce ~20 Mt yr −1 of methane emissions ( 4 ). Systemic and behavioral changes, such as dietary shifts and reduced food loss/waste (DFLW), are often difficult to implement but are benefiting from growing attention. Together, these could substantially augment the 120 Mt yr −1 achievable through targeted technical controls ( 13 , 62 , 106 ). Similarly, the IPCC assessment indicates a mitigation potential from DFLW for all GHGs of about 7 (3–15; full range) GtCO 2 e yr −1 by 2050, of which 1.9 GtCO 2 e yr −1 comes from direct emissions [largely non-CO 2 ( 6 )]. The latter would correspond to ~70 Mt yr −1 methane were it all methane, highlighting the large mitigation potential from DFLW both via methane and via associated land use changes.

National mitigation options: abatement potential and cost-effectiveness by country

The GMP has raised ambition worldwide but achieving its goal requires optimizing efforts, as political and financial capital is limited and time is short. We have therefore undertaken national-level analyses (Analyses G–H) of technical mitigation options for countries seeking to implement the Pledge or non-signatories that may want to reduce their emissions (e.g., China published a National Methane Emissions Control Action Plan in 2023). These analyses may also help optimize international financing. They are based on data from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ( 16 ) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) ( 90 ).

Mitigation options with greatest abatement potential by country

Analyses of technological mitigation potential highlight the need to address all subsectors given that each is the largest in at least some countries (Analysis G; Figure 7 ). In some fossil-fuel-producing countries, the greatest opportunities for methane mitigation are in gas and oil whereas coal predominates in other countries. Despite substantial fossil fuel industries, several countries in the Middle East, Southern Africa, and South America are estimated to have their largest mitigation potential in landfills. With few fossil fuels produced outside Eastern Europe and limited technical mitigation potential for livestock, the largest potential for mitigation in Europe is also often in landfills. There are notable exceptions, however. In France, Germany, and the Nordic countries, for example, policies have greatly mitigated waste sector emission, and the livestock subsector now has the largest remaining mitigation potential. This illustrates how national-level data reveal substantial variations even within relatively small geographic regions.

Figure 7 The subsector with the largest technical mitigation potential in every country. The map shows the subsector with the greatest mitigation potential regardless of the cost in each country based on United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data ( 16 ). See Methods (Analysis G) for further details.

This analysis is based on bottom-up emission estimates relying on activity data combined with emission factors. This is the most detailed emission information available by subsector for all countries. However, this approach has uncertainties and limitations. Recent developments in satellite remote sensing have shown the existence of so-called “super-emitters” ( 48 , 49 , 107 ). These are facilities emitting enormous amounts of methane, often related to abnormal operating conditions such as gas well blowouts ( 108 ) or non-burning flares. Hundreds of super-emitters are detectable globally, with even more at local scales [e.g., ( 47 )]. Many super-emitters can be considered “low-hanging fruit” since they are especially cost-effective to mitigate and have high reduction potential per individual source, making them a high-priority category to address. However, they are often not well represented in bottom-up inventories and do not necessarily follow the prioritization per country suggested by the bottom-up analysis ( Figure 7 ). For example, satellite-based studies show emissions from super-emitters from the oil and gas industry in Algeria of ~100 kt CH 4 yr −1 ( 48 , 49 ), a substantial fraction of the estimated mitigation potential not including super-emitters ( Figure 8A ). Super-emitters have also been reported in the coal subsector in Australia, China, and the United States ( 108 – 110 ). Urban areas are also important emission sources that can be difficult to capture in inventories with >13 urban methane hotspots detected in India ( 49 ) and evidence of worldwide urban wastewater emissions hotspots ( 111 ). Based on high-resolution satellite observations, individual landfills in New Delhi and Mumbai were estimated to emit 23 (14–33) and 86 (53–228) kt CH 4 yr −1 ( 112 ), a large fraction of total emissions from their respective urban areas.

Figure 8 Favorable countries for mitigation of methane from the oil and gas subsector. Estimated methane mitigation potential and costs within the oil and gas subsector for the 15 countries with the greatest mitigation potential in this subsector regardless of costs. Analyses based on data from (A) the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for 2030 ( 16 ) and (B) the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2022 ( 90 ). See Methods (Analysis H) for further details.

Mitigation potential and cost-effectiveness by sector and country

To explore cost-effectiveness, we focus on the 50 countries with the largest subsector mitigation potential in the next decade and then rank those by abatement costs (Analysis H). This excludes the agricultural sector due to the limited potential for technical solutions to achieve sizable reductions in the short term. Although this analysis highlights the nations with the largest mitigation potentials at the least average cost, costs vary within each subsector. We therefore created an online tool to explore such details ( https://github.com/psadavarte/Methane_mitigation_webtool ). Mitigation options are grouped into functionally similar categories to facilitate readability and allow comparison across estimates ( Table 1 ).

Table 1 Technical mitigation options included in each category.

For landfills, the 15 most cost-effective large reductions total >6 Mt yr −1 , and all have net negative costs ( Figure 9 ). These savings result from revenues provided by methane recovery for use offsite or energy generation. Within these two categories, net mitigation costs range from −US$800 to −US$4400 per tonne. The mitigation potential is always the largest in the energy generation category, hence savings outweigh expenses from flaring and oxidation (~US$120–US$330 per tonne in these countries) and waste treatment and recycling (US$400–US$1700 per tonne). Mitigation potentials are large for some countries with very large populations, such as India, Brazil, and Mexico, but also for several countries with smaller populations including Azerbaijan, Poland, Peru, and the United Arab Emirates. Note that the most cost-effective options do not always have the greatest mitigation potential (e.g., energy generation versus organics diversion).

Figure 9 Favorable countries for mitigation of methane from landfills. Estimated 2030 methane mitigation potential and costs within the landfill subsector for the 15 countries with the least expensive average costs that are also among the top 50 countries for mitigation potential in this sector. Analysis based on data from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ( 16 ). See Methods (Analysis H) for further details.

Estimating landfill mitigation potentials requires assumptions about waste diversion potentials that are difficult to constrain. For example, analyses by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( 15 ) for India and China find mitigation potentials ~3.5 times larger than EPA values ( Table 2 ). In contrast, the IIASA mitigation potential for the former Soviet Union countries is smaller. Differences are related to IIASA using both population and economic growth as drivers for waste generation (EPA uses population growth only) and IIASA finding a larger mitigation potential from diversion of organic waste through recycling and energy recovery than in the EPA analysis. National-level analyses have substantially larger ranges in estimated mitigation potentials than the global totals—which are similar to the EPA and IIASA analyses. Cost differences between these analyses are even more striking ( Table 2 ) and reflect differences in the assumed value of recycled products recovered from municipal waste and discount rates (5% for EPA, 4% for IIASA). A small number of very expensive controls in the EPA analysis also have an outsized impact. For example, screening out options costing >US$600 tCH 4 −1 reduces the cost averaged over the remaining measures to −US$2700 tCH 4 −1 for India, closer to the IIASA results.

Table 2 Comparison of national data for India and China across available analyses.

For coal, nearly all the most cost-effective large national reductions have positive average costs, though they are low at <US$600 tCH 4 −1 for the top 15 nations ( Figure 10 ; Table 2 ). Mitigation potential in coal within China provides over half the global total for the subsector in all analyses, but the EPA mitigation potential is more than double the IIASA’s, with the IEA being in between ( Table 2 ). The EPA analysis has larger baseline methane emissions from coal in China: 26 Mt yr −1 in 2020 versus 20 and 21 Mt yr −1 in the IIASA and IEA analyses, respectively (2030 values are similar). The lower values are closer to recent satellite inversion estimates of ~16–18 Mt yr −1 ( 113 ). IIASA also makes more conservative assumptions than EPA regarding the fraction of ventilation air methane (VAM) shafts with CH 4 concentration levels high enough (>0.3%) to install self-sustained VAM oxidizers. Cost estimates for China are similar between EPA and IIASA, with the IEA’s being lower. In contrast, the three estimates for coal mitigation potential in India are very similar, but cost estimates differ greatly ( Table 2 ). IIASA’s high costs for India reflect the low VAM concentration there (<0.1%), severely limiting the applicability of oxidizers. Furthermore, abatement potentials in India are similar in magnitude but represent very different percentages of the baseline emissions, with the EPA estimate being roughly one-third that of the other analyses.

Figure 10 Favorable countries for mitigation of methane from the coal subsector. Estimated methane mitigation potential and costs within the coal subsector for the 14 countries with the least expensive average costs that are also among the top 50 countries for mitigation potential in this subsector. Analysis based on data from (A) the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for 2030 ( 16 ) and (B) the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2022 ( 90 ). Note that China is also among the top 15 countries in both analyses but has a mitigation potential of >12,000 kt yr −1 ( Table 2 ), far beyond the scales shown here. See Methods (Analysis H) for further details.

Generally, the EPA estimates lower costs than the IEA, but many countries have similar abatement potentials, including Russia, India, and the United States ( Figure 10 ). In other cases, they estimate extremely different mitigation potentials, for example, in Indonesia and Australia. Differences result from multiple factors, including limited data on base costs and emissions levels, reference years, and technical and economic assumptions. For example, the contrast for Indonesia reflects differences in estimated baseline levels of emission, with the EPA indicating a much lower volume. This may be related to differences in the reference year, with the IEA estimate being more recent and reflecting higher coal activity in Indonesia. Additionally, the EPA uses lower IPCC default emission factors and country-level reporting data to estimate coal mine methane emissions, whereas the IEA considers coal rank, mine depth, satellite measurements, and regulatory frameworks. Finally, the energy production category typically has lower costs than the subsector average, and often net negative costs, whereas the disposal category does not generate revenue and so has higher costs. The latter is typically the largest component in the EPA analysis whereas the former tends to be the largest in the IEA analysis ( Figure 10 ).

Oil and gas

Oil and gas data are available for most countries from the EPA and the IEA. We focus on the 15 countries with the largest potentials regardless of cost because these are similar sets of countries, whereas the most cost-effective within the top 50 differ greatly in these analyses. The comparison shows that 8 countries are among the top 15 by mitigation potential in both analyses, yet these differ markedly in mitigation potentials and especially in mitigation costs ( Figure 8 ). For example, both analyses show the largest abatement potentials in the United States, followed by Russia. However, the potentials estimated by IEA are 40–50% larger than the EPA estimates, while the costs are four-fold lower for the United States and 40-fold lower for Russia. Mitigation potentials diverge even more in other countries. For instance, for Turkmenistan, the IEA finds the potential to mitigate 77% of 4700 kt yr −1 whereas the EPA finds a mitigation potential that is 37% of 1800 kt yr −1 . The IEA analysis, incorporating satellite-based emissions estimates, typically estimates higher current emissions than the EPA which relies upon national reporting, accounting for the larger IEA values in several countries. However, for Uzbekistan and Russia, the IEA base emissions are much lower, at 670 and 13,600 kt yr −1 , respectively, versus 3000 and 24,800 kt yr −1 in the EPA analysis (Russian official reporting was revised downward since the EPA analysis).

Differences between cost estimates are more systematic across countries, with the IEA consistently much lower than EPA. Differences are linked to several factors, including the inclusion of “super-emitters” by the IEA, a scarcity of data on required capital and operational expenditures, and varying revenue assumptions and typical lifetimes for abatement measures (the EPA uses a 5% discount rate and the IEA 10%, which would generally lead to relatively lower costs for the EPA). For example, the EPA estimates incorporate uniform natural gas prices across segments, whereas the IEA has different prices for upstream and downstream segments. Mitigation measures also vary, with each having specific costs, revenue, and lifetime in both analyses.

For both gas and oil, IIASA analyses show much smaller mitigation potential for India than either the EPA or IEA analyses, whereas for China, the IIASA estimates lie between EPA and IEA values ( Table 2 ). For both countries, mitigation potentials vary by 300% to 600% across the three datasets for gas, oil, or oil plus gas—much larger than the 16% to 150% variations for coal. Turning to costs, IIASA analyses for gas and oil in India and China find large net revenues, whereas the IEA finds smaller revenues and EPA large net expenditures ( Table 2 ). IIASA’s lower costs are attributable to the lower discount rate (4%) that increases the value of future revenue from captured gas, as well as projecting increases in the value of future gas based on the IEA New Policies Scenario (whereas the IEA, for example, uses present-day prices as they examine immediate abatement).

The social cost of methane

The social cost of methane (SCM), monetizing climate change-related damages, has recently been reevaluated ( 114 ) based on results from three damage estimation models ( 115 – 117 ). Incorporating only the impacts of climate change, the SCM ranges from US$470–US$1700 tCH 4 −1 for 2020 across these models using 2.5% discounting (values in 2020 US$). The spread narrows greatly over time to US$1100–US$2300 in 2030 and US$2700–US$3700 in 2050. This indicates that the models differ greatly in their near-term climate damage while converging in their valuation of longer-term impact. The 2030 SCM is 8–15 times larger than the social cost of CO 2 in 2030 (with 2.5% discounting) using these models, a “global damage potential” much lower than metrics of 30 (GWP100) or 83 (GWP20) typically used to compare these gases. Using one of those same damage estimate models, as well as others, higher 2020 values were recently reported: US$2900 tCH 4 −1 for models using a stochastic rather than fixed discount rate by otherwise standard methods applying economic damage to current output and US$75,600 tCH 4 −1 using models applying damage to long-term economic growth which then compound over time ( 118 ). The latter not only dramatically boosts social costs but also global damage potential, which rises from 21 to 44 in their analysis.

These types of evaluations have inherent inconsistencies, however. They include the effects of methane-induced ozone changes on climate but not health. However, there is a robust evidence base for ozone-health impacts via methane photochemistry ( 4 , 77 , 78 , 119 – 121 ). Similarly, SCM estimates include the effects of climate and CO 2 exposure on ecosystems, including agriculture, but not ozone exposure ( 78 , 122 ). Several studies have evaluated the SCM accounting consistently for ozone damage. Based on adults-only health impacts with relatively weak ozone effects on cardiovascular-related deaths and incorporating climate-only valuations without compounding growth effects, they find substantially larger values of ~US$4300–US$4400 tCH 4 −1 for 2020 ( 4 , 78 ). Using both stronger cardiovascular impacts and impacts on children under 5 (Analysis E), those values rise to ~US$7000 tCH 4 −1 . Using either those values or the values incorporating economic growth impacts ( 118 ), virtually all current methane abatement options cost much less than the associated environmental damages.

Economic considerations, including profit versus abatement in oil production

Given that many low-cost controls are available, the imposition of even a modest price on methane emissions would incentivize some emission reductions and overcome implementation barriers based on marginal costs alone ( 3 ). Several examples of methane pricing exist: auctions under California’s emissions trading system in 2022 yielded prices of ~US$725 tCH 4 −1 ( 123 ), Norway has a US$1500 tCH 4 −1 fee on oil and gas operators, and the 2022 US Inflation Reduction Act sets a price on excess methane emissions from oil and gas of US$900 tCH 4 −1 in 2024, rising to US$1500 tCH 4 −1 after 2025. Under these types of pricing regimes, average abatement costs in most priority countries would become negative for coal ( Figure 10 ) and oil and gas ( Figure 8 ). Similarly, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis recommends a rising price on methane reaching ~US$2100 tCH 4 −1 in 2030 to align emissions with the 2°C goal ( 124 ). A methane fee might be set to a politically practical value, the value needed to achieve a desired reduction (as in the IMF analysis), or the value of associated environmental damages (the SCM).

Economic analyses from a societal perspective, i.e., how a mitigation measure incurs costs and benefits for both public and private stakeholders (including long-term impacts on future generations), can help policymakers define emission reduction targets that aim to optimize welfare ( 125 ). Private-sector decision-makers have a different perspective, with higher discount rates and shorter return times on investments; mitigation measures generating net profits may sometimes be outcompeted by production activities generating even higher profits since capital is limited. The profit-maximizing investor will weigh the relative profits of possible investments and choose the one with the highest return, leaving investment opportunities with lower profits unfunded. Even mitigation costs without consideration of environmental impacts, as discussed here, can be misleading about private sector decision-making. For example, despite recent increases in gas prices resulting in increased profits from gas recovery during oil production, industry incentives to invest in this have weakened because the profit margin from oil production has increased more rapidly than that from extended gas recovery owing to an increasing spread between oil and gas prices.

To illustrate this, we compare returns from methane controls during oil production, such as the recovery of associated gas for reinjection or utilization and leak detection and repair programs, for two cases denoted “Jan 2020” and “July 2022” (Analysis I). These correspond approximately to global oil and gas markets in those months with historic lows and highs, respectively ( Table 3 ). When oil and gas prices are low, the two profit margins can overlap without a methane fee ( Figure 11 ). Under such conditions, methane recovery investments can be as or more profitable than investments in increased oil production. We then expect some voluntary investments into methane control without the introduction of legally binding regulations. As oil and gas prices climb to the July 2022 levels, the profit margin of increasing oil production quickly outpaces that of methane control without a fee. In an illustrative example of a US$1500 tonne −1 fee on methane, as in the US and Norway, methane abatement becomes generally more profitable than oil production with low prices, though this fee is sufficient to make only some abatement as profitable as production with high prices ( Figure 11 ).

Table 3 Assumptions for the two fictive, illustrative cases “Jan 2020” and “July 2022”.

Figure 11 Variation in profit margins for oil production and methane abatement as fossil fuel prices change. Ranges for profit margins of oil production and methane abatement are shown for two illustrative cases “Jan 2020” and “July 2022” that correspond to historically low and high oil and gas prices, respectively (see Table 3 for assumptions). Profit margins for methane abatement are shown without a fee on emissions and with a US$1500 per tonne illustrative methane fee. See Methods (Analysis I) for further details.

This analysis helps explain the behavior of real-world markets, e.g., “Methane emissions remained stubbornly high in 2022 even as soaring energy prices made actions to reduce them cheaper than ever” ( 126 ). Profit-maximizing oil companies have a greater incentive to spend capital on increased production rather than voluntarily investing in methane control when prices are high, even though profits from such actions have increased. In such cases, oil companies can only be expected to invest in methane control if forced to do so through legally binding regulations. While actions to control methane from the fossil fuel sector entail substantial costs, the industry has ample resources compared with sectors such as waste or agriculture. For example, the IEA estimates that reducing energy-related methane emissions by 75% would require spending through 2030, which is <5% of the industry’s net 2023 income ( 127 ).

To reach abatement targets through private sector investments, policymakers need to ensure regulations are strong enough to overcome any competitive disadvantage of abatement investments relative to other operational investments. That measures are cost-effective from a societal perspective is no guarantee that abatement will happen without the introduction of additional regulations and policy incentives, such as requirements to use the best available technologies or a methane fee high enough to make abatement gains comparable to those available from new-source development from a private perspective ( Figure 11 ). The imperatives to both reduce methane rapidly this decade and transition to net zero CO 2 by the middle of the century imply that societies should consider granting companies social licenses to operate only if they are on course to both very low methane intensity by 2030 (including no routine venting or flaring) and to net zero CO 2 by 2050.

Conclusions and next steps

The GMP has created enormous policy momentum. Alongside it, the Global Methane Hub ( https://globalmethanehub.org/ ) links ~20 philanthropic organizations’ supporting action, and the CCAC links development banks with mitigation implementers. As such, there is an urgent need for expanded and improved knowledge of both the benefits of and opportunities for mitigation and access to finance to support the effective implementation of mitigation policies. This information can be provided with support tools that keep pace with rapidly advancing knowledge regarding current emission sources, especially via remote sensing.

Our analyses support three imperatives for methane mitigation. We illustrate how observations show increased methane concentration growth rates, which have recently reached the greatest values on record according to both ground-based and satellite data. Observed methane growth rates are now much higher than the mean predictions across models and far above levels consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. Human activities are predominantly responsible for the past ~15 years of growth—with contributions from increased emissions from wetlands due to anthropogenic global warming and from direct anthropogenic emissions. The first imperative is therefore to change course and reverse methane emission growth through stronger policy-led action targeting all major drivers of methane emissions as well as to greatly reduce CO 2 emissions rapidly.

The second imperative is to align methane and CO 2 mitigation. Major and rapid reductions in methane are integral to least-cost 1.5°C- and 2°C-consistent scenarios alongside the transformations needed to reach net zero CO 2 by ~2050. However, net zero methane emissions is not the target owing to abatement challenges for some sources and its short lifetime. Nevertheless, since methane and CO 2 each contribute to warming, maximizing reductions in methane emissions is important both for its own sake to ensure that 1.5°C- or 2°C-consistent CO 2 trajectories are feasible and to reduce CDR requirements. Methane and CO 2 mitigation actions are tightly interrelated: reducing methane emissions can directly contribute to reduced atmospheric CO 2 via carbon cycle interactions. Focusing on land use, we quantify how decreased livestock numbers afforded by reduced consumption of cattle-based foods not only help reduce methane emissions but also free up land to help meet projected needs for CDR at levels required to achieve long-term climate goals. Rapid and deep cuts to CO 2 and methane provide the strongest climate benefits across the century.

The third imperative highlights the need to optimize methane abatement policies. We show that both technological abatement options and systemic and behavioral choices must be addressed to reduce methane emissions. Our national-level analysis of methane mitigation opportunities highlights the need to address all subsectors when considering abatement options. We find that although many mitigation costs are low relative to real-world financial instruments and methane damage estimates, strong, legally binding regulations need to be in place even in the case of negative-cost options. To help policymakers and project funders, we created an online tool that explores different options and their cost-effectiveness. This tool supports policymakers by, for example, displaying (i) the most cost-effective options for countries to achieve a desired methane abatement objective economy-wide by sector or by subsector and (ii) the options in each country or countries that provide the largest abatement opportunities for a given spending level. Given substantial uncertainties in both emissions and costs, these data provide guidance for funders or policymakers who can then pursue more detailed studies. Funding equivalent to mitigation costs is not necessarily required since the cost analyses could support regulatory policies, e.g., by showing that they do not impose onerous burdens. For example, mitigation in the fossil sector is both large and low in cost in China and India, as are reductions in landfill methane in India, suggesting these two non-GMP countries have the potential to achieve major methane reductions with limited financial burdens.

The tool provides abatement potentials both as tonnes and percentages. The latter facilitates use with observations, for example, the identification of emission sources by satellites with global coverage but relatively low spatial resolution that are followed up by higher resolution site-specific quantification of emission rates ( Figure 12 ). These data will soon be complemented by the satellite missions Carbon Mapper, MethaneSAT, GOSAT-GW, Sentinel-5, and Satlantis as well as datasets produced by the Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System and the International Methane Emissions Observatory. Automated reporting based on satellite observations promises to provide rapid information on emissions and progress in abatement [e.g., ( 49 ), ( 107 )] though updates to mitigation potentials and costs based on new data will take considerable time and effort.

Figure 12 Example use of remote sensing to quantify methane emissions. (A) Methane observations from the TROPOMI instrument on 31 March 2019 over the region encompassing Lahore, Pakistan. (B) High-resolution measurement of methane enhancement over the northern part of the city observed by GHGSat on 31 October 2020. The emission source location matches the siting of the Lahore landfill, with Q indicating the estimated methane emission rate.

The new tool complements another showing the benefits of methane abatement ( http://shindellgroup.rc.duke.edu/apps/methane/ ). That tool allows the user to select global or regional methane mitigation options by sector and cost and then displays national-level benefits including ozone effects on human health, yields for several major staple crops, heat-related labor productivity, and the economic valuation of these.

Though methane has similar environmental impacts wherever it is emitted, co-emissions affect those living near sources with environmental justice implications [e.g., ( 128 , 129 )]. These include hazardous hydrocarbons, such as benzene, that are frequently emitted by gas and oil facilities, black carbon from flaring, and ammonia from manure ponds. Methane-producing infrastructure is often in areas with high social vulnerability [e.g., ( 130 )]. Accounting for co-emissions requires improved data on their spatial distribution and volume, especially in areas with nearby vulnerable populations.

There is also a need to improve understanding of several physical processes influencing the climate impacts of methane emissions. Methane-induced ozone increases affect the carbon cycle, amplifying the climate impact of methane, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain ( 12 ). Additionally, methane affects particle formation via oxidants, producing aerosol-cloud interactions that may augment the climate impact of methane ( 131 ). Studies also report divergent results for the net cloud response to methane when the shortwave absorption of methane is accounted for ( 132 , 133 ). A better understanding of the response of natural methane emissions to climate change is also needed. Improved capabilities to monitor emissions from difficult-to-access methane-source areas (e.g., wetlands) using remote sensing should help constrain changes in natural sources over the coming decade. A research agenda for methane removal technologies, which could be deployed in the unlikely event of a surge in natural emissions, has been called for [e.g., ( 134 )] and is currently being assessed ( https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/atmospheric-methane-removal-development-of-a-research-agenda ).

Though additional observations and improved scientific understanding will be valuable, securing the benefits for climate, health, labor productivity, and crops ( 4 , 79 ) that are the rationale for the GMP requires immediate implementation to achieve the emission reductions envisioned by 2030. Not only is our understanding of methane science and mitigation options sufficient to act upon, but political support is evidenced by the GMP, and financial support is growing. It is also becoming clearer how methane fees would achieve climate goals and enhance well-being. In the face of ever-increasing climate damages, including heat waves, flooding, storms, and fires, the world has a real opportunity to reduce the rate at which these effects grow between now and 2050 via methane action, with the main impediment being the will to implement the known solutions.

Analysis A: methane growth/emissions vs projections

Methane abundance growth rates during the 2020s are taken from “no climate policy” baseline scenarios from several recent multi-model intercomparison projects using integrated assessment models: ADVANCE ( https://www.fp7-advance.eu/ ), NAVIGATE ( https://www.navigate-h2020.eu/ ) ( 14 ), and ENGAGE ( https://www.engage-climate.org/ ). NAVIGATE and ENGAGE scenarios are the most recent and include updates to actual trends in energy demand, costs, etc., and legislation through ~2020. This dataset includes results from the following IAMs: AIM/CGE 2.0, IMAGE (versions 3.0.1, 3.0.2, and 3.2), MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 1.1, POLES, REMIND 1.7, REMIND-MAgPIE (versions 1.5, 2.0–4.1, and 2.1–4.2), WITCH 5.0, and WITCH- GLOBIOM 4.2.

Baseline projections are also included from two “bottom-up” analyses by the International Institute for IIASA ( 15 ) and the EPA ( 16 ). The IIASA analysis uses their Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in which baseline emission estimates reflect expected impacts on emissions from current legislation to control emissions. Future methane emissions in GAINS by 2050 are developed based on macroeconomic and energy sector activity drivers from the IEA World Energy Outlook 2018 New Policies Scenario ( 135 ), agricultural sector activity drivers from the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) ( 136 ), and IIASA’s own projections of solid waste and wastewater generation consistent with their relevant macroeconomic drivers. By incorporating policies projected forward by the IEA in 2018 in the energy scenario, these projections are expected to be similar to the NAVIGATE and ENGAGE baselines. The EPA’s projections are based on projected changes in underlying drivers taken from various globally available activity data sources depending on the source category. Trends in energy production and consumption are based on the United States Energy Information Administration 2017 International Energy Outlook Reference Case scenario. Growth rates in crop and livestock production are from International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) ( 137 ). The full methodology is discussed in the documentation accompanying the EPA’s Global non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emission projections & mitigation report ( 16 ). Neither the integrated assessment models nor the bottom-up analyses include changes in natural methane emissions.

A simple box model with a sink proportional to the atmospheric abundance of methane is used both to derive emission and sink estimates ( Figure 1 ) and to convert scenario emissions to estimated concentration changes ( Figure 2 ). The atmospheric residence time for methane is 9.1 years for 2020 methane concentrations in this model, consistent with the value reported in the IPCC AR6 ( 12 ).

Analysis B: projected methane emissions reductions under 1.5°C-consistent scenarios

This analysis utilizes the scenario dataset analyzed in the IPCC AR6 ( 59 ). We include all scenarios classified as being below 1.5°C in 2100 (>50% probability) with either no or limited overshoot and for which agricultural as well as total methane emissions were available. There are 53 scenarios from eight models that represent five separate model families: AIM/CGE 2.2 and AIM/Hub-Global 2.0; IMAGE 3.2; MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.1; REMIND 2.1, REMIND-MAgPIE 2.1–4.2 and 2.1–4.3; and WITCH 5.0. Data were obtained from the AR6 Scenario Database ( 86 ), release 1.1.

Analysis C: connection between land area use for BECCS and pasture

This analysis utilizes two sets of scenarios from the AR6 scenario database ( 86 ). We examine the relationship between the deployment of BECCS and the area used for pasture (area used for fodder was not available) using scenarios classified as keeping warming below 1.5°C with limited or no overshoot as well as those keeping warming below 1.5°C with high overshoot. The latter are included to obtain a larger sample of models given substantial intermodal variability in estimates of future BECCS deployment. Results are available from seven model families: AIM, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, REMIND, COFFEE, and WITCH. From these scenarios, we also analyze decadal changes in the multi-model means and individual scenarios for these two quantities from the 2040s (or 2030s) to 2090s.

A second set of scenarios is used to explore how land use trade-offs including land area used for afforestation vary across IAMs. We use an expanded set of scenarios classified as under 2°C as afforestation diagnostics were not available from as many models. Even using this larger dataset, we found only eight models that provided all the required outputs. As this analysis compares land used for carbon uptake (afforestation and bioenergy crops) with pasture area across multiple scenarios within a single model, we excluded three models that had six or fewer scenarios. One additional model, a variant of REMIND, has minimal changes in land deployed for carbon uptake so does not provide useful input for this analysis (though averages and ranges are not sensitive to the inclusion of that model). For the remaining four models (IMAGE 3.2, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 1.1, REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7–3.0, and WITCH 5.0), 22–106 scenarios were available (206 in total), allowing a robust characterization of the land use relationship for each of these models. In this analysis, afforestation is converted from the reported value in tCO 2 to area using 12 tCO 2 per ha ( 138 ).

Analysis D: climate impact of decarbonization and methane reduction

We analyzed the response of global mean annual average surface air temperatures to emissions under various scenarios to isolate the effects of decarbonization and targeted methane emission controls. The emissions scenarios are based upon the SSPs, using averages across 1.5°C scenarios (nominal 1.9 W m −2 forcing in 2100) under SSPs 1, 2, and 5 as 1.5°C was infeasible under SSP3 in four of four models and under SSP4 in two of three models. From those scenarios, we separate the effects of decarbonization from targeted methane abatement based on the methane abatement associated with decreasing fossil fuel use ( 4 , 82 , 95 ), which is classified as part of decarbonization, relative to all other methane reductions, which includes the remaining portion of fossil fuel-sector methane abatement and all methane abatement in the agriculture and waste sectors.

Temperature responses to those emissions relative to constant 2020 emissions were calculated using absolute global temperature potentials (AGTPs), as in prior work ( 4 , 66 , 78 ). The yearly AGTPs represent the global mean temperature change per kilogram of emission each year after those emissions based on an impulse-response function for the climate system, as is used in IPCC reports for selected example years, e.g., AGTP50 or AGTP100 ( 69 ). This analysis relies on AGTPs created using the transient climate response averaged over the last generation of climate models (CMIP5) ( 139 ), which is very similar to that reported from the latest generation ( 63 ). The response to methane is calibrated to match the global mean annual average temperature response from the full composition-climate models reported in the Global Methane Assessment’s climate simulations ( 4 ).

Analysis E: impact of methane abatement on temperature and health

This analysis presents global mean annual average temperature responses using the same methodology as Analysis D but in this case applied to scenarios based upon baseline and 1.5°C-consistent scenarios under the SSP2 pathway. SSP2 is chosen as it lies in the middle of the three for which models produced several 1.5°C consistent scenarios (SSPs 1, 2, and 5), consistent with its “middle-of-the-road” narrative description ( 96 ).

This analysis also presents health impacts based on changes in exposure to surface ozone. The GMA used five global composition-climate models to evaluate the effect of methane emissions on the maximum daily 8-hour ozone exposure averaged over the year (MDA8-annual). This was the metric most closely linked to increases in premature deaths from ozone in one of the largest epidemiological studies to date ( 140 ) as well as in a second large United States study that obtained very similar exposure-response results ( 141 ). This analysis utilizes the multi-model mean changes in this metric per unit methane emission change to derive the effect on human health due to reduced risk of both respiratory and cardiovascular premature mortality with decreasing ozone exposure.

We note that groups such as the EPA and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) do not include ozone-related cardiovascular premature deaths—the EPA’s expert panel reports that “evidence for long-term ozone exposure and cardiovascular effects is suggestive of, but insufficient to infer, a causal relationship” ( 142 ). However, a recent cohort study in China ( 143 ) reports a strong relationship and a much higher risk increment per unit exposure than that used here based on the United States studies. To characterize the range of potential methane-ozone-health impacts, we also evaluated the maximum daily 8-hour ozone exposure averaged over the 6-month period of maximum exposures (MDA8–6mon), the metric used in the Chinese epidemiological analysis. We apply the exposure–response relationship for cardiovascular disease of Niu et al. ( 143 ) using the same theoretical minimum risk exposure level (a threshold) as in the United States study [26.7 ppb ( 140 )], as this value is below any exposures in Niu et al. The results are only modestly sensitive to the use of this threshold, however, with values ~20% less without the threshold, well within uncertainty ranges. We find 1930 [1110–2510: 95% confidence interval (CI)] deaths per Mt methane emission based on the exposure-response of Niu et al. ( 143 ), a best estimate value much larger than even the high end of the 690 (210–1120: 95% CI) deaths per MtCH 4 found using the Turner et al. ( 140 ) relationship ( 4 ). Note that another large Chinese cohort study ( 144 ) reported more than double the increased risk of cardiovascular death due to increased ozone exposure relative to Niu et al. ( 143 ), suggesting that even our high-end estimate could be substantially too small.

In addition to the differing estimates of the effect of ozone on premature cardiovascular deaths, another recent analysis reports a strong relationship between ozone exposure and increased premature death in children aged under 5 years in low- and middle-income countries ( 145 ). Such an effect would be distinct from other effects analyzed here as the other studies included only populations aged 18 and older ( 143 ) or 30 and older ( 140 ). The impacts on children aged 0 to 5 were reported in response to MDA8–6mon, and we used this metric to again evaluate the effects of changing methane emissions for ozone exposures above 51 ppb, as reported in the epidemiological study. We find an additional 320 (125–485: 95% CI) premature deaths in children under 5.

Combining the 740 (460–990) adult respiratory deaths ( 4 ) with the adult cardiovascular deaths found here based on the Chinese cohort ( 143 ) and the under-5 age group deaths gives a total value of 3000 (2100–3600) per MtCH 4 . Using standard valuation methods ( 4 ), this leads to a valuation of US$5200 (3650–6250) per tCH 4 .

Human health impacts were calculated using 2015 population data from the Gridded Population of the World (GPW) version 4 ( 146 ) and 2015 baseline mortality rates from the GBD project ( 147 ) for each country of the world.

Analysis F: impact of methane abatement on heavy/outdoor labor

We assess the effects of changes in heat exposure due to mitigation of methane emissions on potential labor productivity within the heavy labor category, which primarily includes outdoor workers in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and construction ( 100 ). The effects of methane abatement are evaluated relative to a “middle-of-the-road” SSP2 scenario, as in Analysis E. Uncertainties are characterized using multiple impact functions, namely those of Kjellstrom et al. ( 148 ), Foster et al. ( 149 ), and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Standard 7243 ( 150 ), using the approach of Bröde et al. ( 151 ). Analyses are performed for both the case of workers in the sun and in the shade.

Valuation of the avoided labor losses uses estimates from the International Labour Organization (ILO) of the fraction of the overall working-age population (ages 15–64) in each country that works in heavy labor ( 152 ), multiplied by the spatially gridded population ages 15–64 [Gridded Population of the World v4 data ( 146 )] to estimate the number of workers in a given category and their spatial distribution. We then overlay the heavy labor hours lost by these workers to obtain total hours lost. We next calculate average value added per worker in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and construction by dividing the total value added in 2017 ( 153 ) by the total working-age employment in a given category. This is then converted to value per hour assuming a 12-hour workday and 365 days/year (a maximalist assumption, though common in the labor economics literature, so the value of hours lost reported here is conservative). We then multiply the hourly value added per worker by the heavy labor hours lost to estimate the economic costs of heat-related productivity losses. Finally, values are converted from 2017 local currency units (LCU) to 2017 PPP-adjusted international dollars (2017 PPP$) by dividing a country’s LCU by its gross domestic product 2017 PPP conversion rate (LCU/US$). We sum the losses over all countries (n=163) to obtain the estimated global output loss.

Analysis G and H: national-level methane mitigation analysis of abatement potentials and costs

National mitigation potentials and their associated costs are evaluated primarily based on the data from the EPA ( 16 ) and from the IEA ( 90 ). The EPA data cover all sectors and include projected changes in both baseline emissions and mitigation. Mitigation potentials change over time due to factors such as projected technology turnover and improvements in technology over time. Potentials are estimated through 2050 and use a discount rate of 5% in cost estimates (e.g., for the value of captured gas). The IEA analysis includes only the fossil fuel sector and analyzes present-day abatement potentials associated with targeted control measures. This analysis uses a discount rate of 10% in its cost estimates.

Limited national data are also included from an analysis by IIASA, though this analysis is primarily done at the regional level ( 15 ). As with the EPA analysis, these mitigation potentials and costs cover all sectors and include time-dependent estimates of both changes in baseline emissions and mitigation. The latter include sector-specific assumptions about technology turnover times, based on the literature, improvements in technology over time, and the achievable pace of regulations. This analysis includes discount rates of 4% and 10% in their cost evaluation and also extends to 2050. EPA and IIASA data are evaluated for 2030 whereas IEA estimates are for 2022.

As presented in the main text, abatement options have been grouped into functionally similar categories to facilitate readability and allow comparison across estimates. An online tool facilitating analysis of the national level EPA and IEA has been created that allows users to sort the available national abatement options by sector according to their costs. The user can specify either a mitigation target or a spending target and can also compare across the EPA and IEA datasets (within the fossil fuel sector) and countries. The tool is available at https://github.com/psadavarte/Methane_mitigation_webtool .

Analysis I: profit/return from controlling methane emissions versus price (oil production)

To examine the implications of price fluctuations on oil companies’ incentives to invest in methane abatement, we compared two fictive cases called “Jan 2020” and “July 2022”. These approximate the situations in the global oil and gas markets in January 2020, when the world oil and gas prices stood at a historical low at ~US$20/barrel for oil (Brent) and about ~US$10/MWh for gas (title transfer facility [TTF] spot price), and July 2022, when the same prices stood at a historic high at about US$120/barrel for oil and US$100/MWh for gas. Our analysis assumes that there are no appreciable changes in the costs of oil production or methane abatement, the impact factors (methane released per barrel) for oil-related methane emissions, or the effectiveness of methane abatement to isolate the effects of commodity price changes.

Supplementary material

The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsci.2024.1349770/full#supplementary-material

Acknowledgments

We thank Katie Owens for analyses of AR6 scenarios and the Global Methane Hub for financial support.

Author contributions

DS: Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Supervision, Writing – original draft. PS: Investigation, Writing – review & editing. IA: Investigation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing. TB: Investigation, Writing – review & editing. GD: Writing – original draft. LH-I: Conceptualization, Investigation, Writing – original draft. BP: Investigation, Writing – review & editing. MS: Investigation, Writing – review & editing. GS: Investigation, Writing – review & editing. SS: Investigation, Writing – review & editing. KR: Data curation, Investigation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing. LP: Investigation, Writing – review & editing. ZQ: Writing – review & editing. GF: Writing – review & editing, Formal Analysis. JM: Investigation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing.

Data availability statement

The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/ Supplementary Material . Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was funded by the Global Methane Hub through Windward Fund Grant 016011-2022-01-01 and through the European Union FOCI program. The funders had no role in the study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the paper for publication.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

The reviewer FOC declared a past co-authorship with the author SS to the handling editor.

Publisher’s note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

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Keywords: methane emissions, climate change mitigation, ozone, CO 2 budget, mitigation costs, fossil fuels, net zero, livestock

Citation: Shindell D, Sadavarte P, Aben I, Bredariol TdO, Dreyfus G, Höglund-Isaksson L, Poulter B, Saunois M, Schmidt GA, Szopa S, Rentz K, Parsons L, Qu Z, Faluvegi G and Maasakkers JD. The methane imperative. Front Sci (2024) 2:1349770. doi: 10.3389/fsci.2024.1349770

Received: 05 December 2023; Accepted: 06 June 2024; Published: 30 July 2024.

Reviewed by:

Copyright © 2024 Shindell, Sadavarte, Aben, Bredariol, Dreyfus, Höglund-Isaksson, Poulter, Saunois, Schmidt, Szopa, Rentz, Parsons, Qu, Faluvegi and Maasakkers. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Drew Shindell, [email protected]

Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

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These are the 10 best-performing stocks of all time

New research identifies the 10 best-performing US stocks since 1926.
Of 29,000 US stocks traded since 1926, most had negative returns, but top performers showed consistent gains.
The study affirms the importance of "time in the market," according to its author, Hendrik Bessembinder.

A new research paper has examined all 29,078 US stocks that have existed since 1926 and identified the top 10 performers of all time.

These stocks, some of them household names, have generated enormous wealth for those who purchased even just one share of the company and held on to it for nearly 100 years.

Of course, identifying the 10 best-performing stocks for the next 100 years is nearly impossible, as the paper's author points out.

"The majority (51.6%) of these stocks had negative cumulative returns," finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University wrote.

But with a healthy dose of luck, $1 invested in 1926 would have been worth $2.67 million at the end of 2023, assuming it was invested in the right company.

Bessembinder also observed that the 10 best-performing stocks delivered consistently modest annualized gains, reinforcing the slow and steady mantra championed by long-term investors.

"Annualized compound returns to these top performers relatively were modest, averaging 13.47% across the top seventeen stocks, thereby affirming the importance of 'time in the market," Bessembinder wrote.

From soda to cigarettes to computers and airplanes, these are the 10 top-performing US stocks since 1926, according to the paper, which assumed that dividends were reinvested.

Ticker: PEP Return of $1 invested : $86,360 Investment date: December 31, 1925 - December 29, 2023

Ticker: KO Return of $1 invested : $123,724 Investment date: December 31, 1925 - December 29, 2023

S&P Global

Ticker: SPGI Return of $1 invested : $128,787 Investment date: February 14, 1929 - December 29, 2023

Ticker: ETN Return of $1 invested : $151,173 Investment date: December 31, 1925 - December 29, 2023

International Business Machines

Ticker: IBM Return of $1 invested : $175,437 Investment date: December 31, 1925- December 29, 2023 5. Boeing

Ticker: BA Return of $1 invested : $212,206 Investment date: September 5, 1934 - December 29, 2023

General Dynamics

Ticker: GD Return of $1 invested : $220,850 Investment date: January 28, 1926 - December 29, 2023

Kansas City Southern

Ticker: Delisted after 2021 acquisition by Canadian Pacific Return of $1 invested : $361,757 Investment date: December 31, 1925 - December 13, 2021

Vulcan Materials

Ticker: VMC Return of $1 invested : $393,492 Investment date: December 31, 1925- December 29, 2023

Altria Group

Ticker: MO Return of $1 invested : $2,655,290 Investment date: December 31, 1925 - December 29, 2023

Main content

The Graduation Part II: Graduate School Graduation Rates

This paper documents several facts about graduate program graduation rates using administrative data covering public and nonprofit graduate students in Texas. Despite conventional wisdom that most graduate students complete their programs, only 58 percent of who started their program in 2004 graduated within 6 years. Between the 2004 and 2013 entering cohorts, graduate student completion rates grew by 10 percentage points. Graduation rates vary widely by field of study--ranging from an average of 81 percent for law programs to 53 percent for education programs. We also find large differences in graduation rates across institutions. On average, 72 percent of students who entered programs in flagship public universities graduated in 6 years compared to only 57 percent of those who entered programs in non-research intensive (non-R1) institutions. Graduate students who do not complete may face negative consequences due to lower average earnings and substantial levels of student debt.

The conclusions of this research do not necessarily reflect the opinion or official position of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, the Texas Workforce Commission, the State of Texas, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. This work was generously funded by Arnold Ventures.

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Apple used Google's chips to train two AI models, research paper shows

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The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has launched an investigation into Nvidia after complaints from competitors that it may have abused its market dominance in selling chips that power artificial intelligence, The Information reported on Thursday.

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These are the 10 best-performing stocks of all time
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The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and projections for the future

Introduction

The evolution of the world population in numbers

Causes of the explosion: the demographic transition

Scenarios for the future

Declining fertility

Child mortality, education and family planning

Population momentum

Consequences of the population explosion

Poverty and famine

Impact on the environment

7 Billion and counting… What is to be done?

Rising slopes—Bibliometrics of mountain research 1900–2019

1. Introduction

2.1 General search query

2.2 Mountain range query

2.3 Evaluation of search queries

2.4 Data extraction from WOS

2.5 Word frequencies in abstracts

2.6 Geographical data

3.1 Number of mountain papers

3.2 Journals, paper categories and subjects

3.3 Terms in abstracts

3.4 Mountain ranges

3.5 Countries

3.6 Organizations

4. Discussion

5. Conclusions

Supporting information

S2 Table. Search strings for individual mountain ranges as applied in the Web of Science TM advanced search.