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Educational resources and simple solutions for your research journey
Once you know what a lay summary is, the next question you’ll probably be asking yourself is ‘how to write a lay summary?’ But why is this important for researchers? For one, there has been a surge in research output. The past decade has seen a 4% annual increase in peer-reviewed science and engineering (S&E) journal articles and conference papers being published. 1 However, it’s not just the increasing number of published articles but the visibility your work receives that indicates a researcher’s productivity and success. While researchers often come up with ground-breaking and crucial findings, it can be challenging for non-academics and even specialists from other disciplines to understand its importance. Communicating research findings to a broader audience is a crucial aspect of any scholarly work. So in this article, we will explore the importance of writing a lay summary, explaining how to write a lay summary to ensure your research reaches and resonates with a wider audience.
Table of Contents
Lay summaries are condensed descriptions of research findings that are written in a simple way so that wider audience can understand the work presented with ease. Writing a lay summary also aids in bridging the gap between often complex research work and non-specialist readers, providing them with a clear overview of the research’s purpose, key findings, and real-world implications. By making the published study more widely available, researchers can foster inclusivity, promote wider engagement, and spark new research, and influence public policy. Writing a lay summary in a simple, compelling manner goes a long way in not only ensuring visibility, it also makes it more comprehensible and usable for journalists, policymakers, and people around the world.
A lay summary of a scientific paper doesn’t have to be challenging to write. Here are some simple steps to keep in mind when writing a lay summary.
Before you start crafting your lay summary, consider who your target audience is and tailor your language accordingly. This will make your lay summary more engaging and relevant to your readers, whether they’re policymakers, patients, or the general public.
Simplicity is the key to an effective lay summary, so avoid jargon and technical terms that might confuse your readers. Think of it as telling a story rather than presenting scientific data and focus on conveying the core message of your research in straightforward manner.
Describe the real-world impact of your findings and how they contribute to solving relevant issues or advancing knowledge in your field. Clearly articulating the significance of your work can keep your readers interested and invested in your research.
A well-structured lay summary guides the reader through your research logically, step by step. When writing a lay summary, cover the problem you aimed to address, your methodology and key findings, and the implications and potential applications of your research.
Avoid assuming prior knowledge from your audience, provide enough context and background information to help readers understand your research without overwhelming them with technical details.
Analogies or real-life scenarios can help your audience grasp complex concepts and appreciate the relevance of your research. So integrate relatable examples when writing a lay summary.
Highlight the benefits of your research, how it can improve lives or contribute to societal advancements, and the practical implications of your work to resonate with readers.
Employ formatting styles like subheads and bullet points and add visual elements like illustrations, tables, or graphs, to easily present data. Write a catchy headline or introduction and use a conversational tone when writing the lay summary.
Get colleagues or friends outside your field to review your lay summary. Their feedback will help you gauge whether your summary successfully conveys the essence of your research to a broader audience.
As the last step, proofread and edit your work to polish language, grammar, punctuation, and sentence structure. Clear, error-free writing lends credibility to your research, ensuring it’s taken seriously and leaves a lasting impression on your readers.
It is common for to get confused between research paper abstracts and lay summaries. While both are used to convey research findings, they have vastly different purposes and audiences.
Abstracts provide a synopsis of a research project that is written for an audience of scholars and experts interested in a particular field of study. An abstract usually includes complex concepts and technical terms when trying to explain the relevance of the research topic. Researchers use an abstract to outline and highlight their objectives, approach, and finding. Abstracts provide a summary of the research paper so that readers may quickly grasp its ideas and decide whether it is pertinent to their areas of interest. An abstract requires usually is more detailed and longer than a lay summary.
Lay summaries on the other hand offer non-technical explanations of a research project. It is typically written for a wider audience, including non-academics and experts from other fields. A lay summary’s main objective is to make the study findings accessible to those who are not subject-matter experts by using analogies to simplify concepts. They highlight the practical relevance of the research in a succinct, impactful way.
Though both lay summaries and abstracts are different, if written in a compelling way, they can be powerful tools to engage readers and help you garner greater visibility for your work.
References:
1. India is world’s third largest producer of scientific articles, following China and US: Report. India Today, Jan 2, 2020. Available online at https://www.indiatoday.in/education-today/latest-studies/story/india-is-world-s-third-largest-producer-of-scientific-articles-following-china-and-us-report-1633351-2020-01-02
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By Harry Heijligers
January 14, 2021
Abstract vs Summary... that's the question.
You have spend hours, weeks even researching and writing that article, report, academic, paper...
And now, just before you want to publish it...
You ask yourself: Should I write an abstract or should I write a summary?
Abstracts and summaries both have a lot of power when it comes to promoting your article, report, research paper, or even book.
Often the terms abstract and summary are confused with each other.
There is an essential difference!
And it's important to understand what the difference is between an abstract and a summary.
After all...
After putting in all that hard and long work to complete your article or report, it would a shame when no one will ever read it!
To answer the question of what the difference is between an abstract and a summary, I first want to define both the terms abstract and summary.
Let’s start with the term summary...
Summaries are a great way to view the main ideas from a long article.
Summaries are great for readers when they...
A good summary helps to start the thinking process in the reader's mind. One of the objectives of a summary is to make the reader curious about the article itself. To make the reader eager to read further.
A summary is not a substitute for an article. Rather, it’s a tool to help you read only the parts of an article that are important to you and to get answers quickly.
Creating a good summary takes time.
A summary doesn’t necessarily have to follow the order and sequence of the original article. A summary can have “a life on its own”. It’s the ad copy for your article to persuade the reader to read your article.
Executive summaries are often used to give the highlights of a report for a specific group of readers.
The same report can have an executive summary tied to their specific interest while another group of readers get's an executive summary highlighting other topics. Almost telling a whole "other" story.
Executive summaries are especially often used in large organizations and corporations where for example the local government needs to be told another story than the local works council.
In this respect, a summary differs from an abstract, because it can be more open-ended than an abstract and...
An abstract is a short section of text that reflects the contents of a large article or report. Abstracts are mostly written specifically for research papers.
The objective of an abstract is to give an overview of the paper’s content. It should persuade the reader to read the entire paper.
Most abstracts are structured abstracts because of the specific guidelines they have to follow.
Especially for academic reports , an abstract has specific guidelines and rules to follow. One of those rules is that the whole research paper should be reflected in the abstract in the exact sequential order as the paper itself.
Another type of abstract is the graphical abstract. A graphical abstract is a visual representation of what is told in the report. Visuals can be very powerful to convey a lot of information in just one picture.
As you have learned by now, a detailed description should be avoided in an abstract or summary. But where a summary can be focused on just one or two highlights from the original report, an abstract should be an accurate description of the article.
The difference between an abstract vs summary is that an abstract is like a 100% reflection of the contents of the article whereas a summary can highlight certain important aspects of the article.
The method you have used to do your research or to come to your conclusions should also be reflected in an abstract, more so than in a summary.
A summary helps the reader to focus on the important aspects of your article.
When you are writing an article an important question to ask yourself, is should I write an abstract vs summary?
To help you ask this question, answer these questions first:
Depending on your answers to these questions you need to decide:
Let me know in the comments below what your personal preference is with regards to abstract vs summary...
as a reader...
and as an author.
Harry Heijligers
Harry Heijligers has more than 25 years of experience as a Project Manager and more than 17 years of experience as an NLP Trainer. He has a Dutch blog about NLP here: HarryHeijligers.com . If you'd like to know about the Smart Leadership Hut, please check this: Smart Leadership Hut .
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What's the difference.
Abstract and executive summary are both concise summaries of a longer document or report, but they serve different purposes. An abstract is typically found at the beginning of an academic paper or research article and provides a brief overview of the study's objectives, methods, results, and conclusions. It is meant to help readers quickly understand the main points of the research without having to read the entire document. On the other hand, an executive summary is commonly found in business reports or proposals and aims to provide a condensed version of the key findings, recommendations, and action plans. It is designed to give busy executives or decision-makers a snapshot of the report's content so they can make informed decisions without delving into the details.
Attribute | Abstract | Executive Summary |
---|---|---|
Definition | A brief summary of a research paper, article, or document. | A concise overview of a business report, proposal, or plan. |
Purpose | To provide a condensed version of the main points and findings. | To give a high-level overview of the entire document. |
Length | Usually limited to a few paragraphs or a single page. | Can vary in length but typically ranges from one to a few pages. |
Content | Includes key objectives, methods, results, and conclusions. | Contains a summary of the problem, solution, and recommendations. |
Target Audience | Researchers, academics, or individuals seeking a quick overview. | Business executives, stakeholders, or decision-makers. |
Placement | Typically appears at the beginning of a research paper or article. | Usually positioned at the beginning of a business report or proposal. |
Level of Detail | Provides a more comprehensive overview of the document. | Offers a concise summary without excessive details. |
Introduction.
When it comes to summarizing complex information, two commonly used tools are the abstract and executive summary. Both serve the purpose of providing a concise overview of a longer document, such as a research paper, report, or business plan. While they share similarities in terms of their purpose, there are distinct differences in their attributes and usage. In this article, we will explore the characteristics of abstracts and executive summaries, highlighting their unique features and discussing their respective benefits.
An abstract is a brief summary of a document that provides an overview of the main points, arguments, and conclusions. It is typically found at the beginning of an academic paper or article and aims to give readers a quick understanding of the content without having to read the entire document. On the other hand, an executive summary is a condensed version of a longer report or business plan, often used in the corporate world. It serves as a standalone document that provides key information and recommendations to decision-makers, allowing them to grasp the main findings and make informed decisions.
One of the primary differences between abstracts and executive summaries lies in their length and content. Abstracts are usually shorter, ranging from 100 to 300 words, depending on the document's length. They focus on summarizing the main points, methodology, and results of the document, providing a glimpse into the overall structure and findings. In contrast, executive summaries are longer and more detailed, typically ranging from one to several pages. They include additional sections such as an introduction, background information, analysis, and recommendations, offering a comprehensive overview of the entire document.
Another important aspect to consider when comparing abstracts and executive summaries is their intended audience and context of use. Abstracts are primarily targeted at researchers, scholars, and academics who are interested in the specific topic or field. They are often published alongside the full document in academic journals or databases, allowing readers to quickly assess the relevance and significance of the research. On the other hand, executive summaries are designed for a broader audience, including executives, managers, investors, or stakeholders who need to make informed decisions based on the summarized information. They are commonly used in business settings, board meetings, or when seeking funding or approval for a project.
Abstracts and executive summaries also differ in terms of their structure and language. Abstracts typically follow a standardized format, including sections such as background, objectives, methods, results, and conclusion. They use concise and objective language, avoiding personal opinions or subjective statements. Executive summaries, on the other hand, have a more flexible structure depending on the document they summarize. They often include an introduction, problem statement, analysis of findings, and recommendations. The language used in executive summaries can be more persuasive and tailored to the target audience, incorporating strategic language and emphasizing key points to influence decision-making.
Both abstracts and executive summaries offer unique benefits and serve different purposes in various contexts. Abstracts are essential for researchers and academics as they allow them to quickly assess the relevance and quality of a document before investing time in reading the full text. They help researchers identify relevant sources for their own work and provide a concise summary of the research landscape. On the other hand, executive summaries are valuable tools for decision-makers in the business world. They save time by providing a comprehensive overview of a report or business plan, enabling executives to make informed decisions without having to read the entire document. Executive summaries also facilitate effective communication and collaboration among team members, ensuring everyone is on the same page and aligned with the document's objectives.
In conclusion, abstracts and executive summaries are both powerful tools for summarizing complex information and providing a concise overview of longer documents. While abstracts are commonly used in academic settings to help researchers assess the relevance and quality of a document, executive summaries are widely used in the corporate world to facilitate decision-making and effective communication. Understanding the attributes and differences between abstracts and executive summaries is crucial for utilizing them effectively in their respective contexts. By leveraging these tools, individuals and organizations can save time, make informed decisions, and enhance collaboration and understanding among stakeholders.
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An abstract is a crisp, short, powerful, and self-contained summary of a research manuscript used to help the reader swiftly determine the paper’s purpose. Although the abstract is the first paragraph of the manuscript it should be written last when all the other sections have been addressed.
Research is formalized curiosity. It is poking and prying with a purpose. — Zora Neale Hurston, American Author, Anthropologist and Filmmaker (1891–1960)
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1 what is an abstract.
An abstract is usually a standalone document that informs the reader about the details of the manuscript to follow. It is like a trailer to a movie, if the trailer is good, it stimulates the audience to watch the movie. The abstract should be written from scratch and not ‘cut –and-pasted’ [ 1 ].
An abstract, in the form of a single paragraph, was first published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal in 1960 with the idea that the readers may not have enough time to go through the whole paper, and the first abstract with a defined structure was published in 1991 [ 2 ]. The idea sold and now most original articles and reviews are required to have a structured abstract. The abstract attracts the reader to read the full manuscript [ 3 ].
The quality of information in an abstract can be summarized by four ‘C’s. It should be:
C: Condensed
C: Critical
Before writing the abstract, you need to check with the journal website about which type of abstract it requires, with its length and style in the ‘Instructions to Authors’ section.
The abstract types can be divided into:
Descriptive: Usually written for psychology, social science, and humanities papers. It is about 50–100 words long. No conclusions can be drawn from this abstract as it describes the major points in the paper.
Informative: The majority of abstracts for science-related manuscripts are informative and are surrogates for the research done. They are single paragraphs that provide the reader an overview of the research paper and are about 100–150 words in length. Conclusions can be drawn from the abstracts and in the recommendations written in the last line.
Critical: This type of abstract is lengthy and about 400–500 words. In this, the authors’ own research is discussed for reliability, judgement, and validation. A comparison is also made with similar studies done earlier.
Highlighting: This is rarely used in scientific writing. The style of the abstract is to attract more readers. It is not a balanced or complete overview of the article with which it is published.
Structured: A structured abstract contains information under subheadings like background, aims, material and methods, results, conclusion, and recommendations (Fig. 15.1 ). Most leading journals now carry these.
Example of a structured abstract (with permission editor CMRP)
An abstract is written to educate the reader about the study that follows and provide an overview of the science behind it. If written well it also attracts more readers to the article. It also helps the article getting indexed. The fate of a paper both before and after publication often depends upon its abstract. Most readers decide if a paper is worth reading on the basis of the abstract. Additionally, the selection of papers in systematic reviews is often dependent upon the abstract.
An abstract should be written last after all the other sections of an article have been addressed. A poor abstract may turn off the reader and they may cause indexing errors as well. The abstract should state the purpose of the study, the methodology used, and summarize the results and important conclusions. It is usually written in the IMRAD format and is called a structured abstract [ 4 , 5 ].
I: The introduction in the opening line should state the problem you are addressing.
M: Methodology—what method was chosen to finish the experiment?
R: Results—state the important findings of your study.
D: Discussion—discuss why your study is important.
Mention the following information:
Important results with the statistical information ( p values, confidence intervals, standard/mean deviation).
Arrange all information in a chronological order.
Do not repeat any information.
The last line should state the recommendations from your study.
The abstract should be written in the past tense.
Cut and paste information from the main text
Hold back important information
Use abbreviations
Tables or Figures
Generalized statements
Arguments about the study
These are important words that are repeated throughout the manuscript and which help in the indexing of a paper. Depending upon the journal 3–10 key words may be required which are indexed with the help of MESH (Medical Subject Heading).
The basic concept for writing abstracts is the same. However, in a conference abstract occasionally a table or figure is allowed. A word limit is important in both of them. Many of the abstracts which are presented in conferences are never published in fact one study found that only 27% of the abstracts presented in conferences were published in the next five years [ 6 ].
Table 15.1 gives a template for writing an abstract.
The recommendations are [ 7 ]:
An abstract is required for original articles, metanalysis, and systematic reviews.
A structured abstract is preferred.
The abstract should mention the purpose of the scientific study, how the procedure was carried out, the analysis used, and principal conclusion.
Clinical trials should be reported according to the CONSORT guidelines.
The trials should also mention the funding and the trial number.
The abstract should be accurate as many readers have access only to the abstract.
An Abstract should be written last after all the other sections of the manuscript have been completed and with due care and attention to the details.
It should be structured and written in the IMRAD format.
For many readers, the abstract attracts them to go through the complete content of the article.
The abstract is usually followed by key words that help to index the paper.
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Samiran Nundy
Department of Internal Medicine, Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, New Delhi, India
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An executive summary is a thorough overview of a research report or other type of document that synthesizes key points for its readers, saving them time and preparing them to understand the study's overall content. It is a separate, stand-alone document of sufficient detail and clarity to ensure that the reader can completely understand the contents of the main research study. An executive summary can be anywhere from 1-10 pages long depending on the length of the report, or it can be the summary of more than one document [e.g., papers submitted for a group project].
Bailey, Edward, P. The Plain English Approach to Business Writing . (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 73-80 Todorovic, Zelimir William and Marietta Wolczacka Frye. “Writing Effective Executive Summaries: An Interdisciplinary Examination.” In United States Association for Small Business and Entrepreneurship. Conference Proceedings . (Decatur, IL: United States Association for Small Business and Entrepreneurship, 2009): pp. 662-691.
Although an executive summary is similar to an abstract in that they both summarize the contents of a research study, there are several key differences. With research abstracts, the author's recommendations are rarely included, or if they are, they are implicit rather than explicit. Recommendations are generally not stated in academic abstracts because scholars operate in a discursive environment, where debates, discussions, and dialogs are meant to precede the implementation of any new research findings. The conceptual nature of much academic writing also means that recommendations arising from the findings are distributed widely and not easily or usefully encapsulated. Executive summaries are used mainly when a research study has been developed for an organizational partner, funding entity, or other external group that participated in the research . In such cases, the research report and executive summary are often written for policy makers outside of academe, while abstracts are written for the academic community. Professors, therefore, assign the writing of executive summaries so students can practice synthesizing and writing about the contents of comprehensive research studies for external stakeholder groups.
When preparing to write, keep in mind that:
Christensen, Jay. Executive Summaries Complete The Report. California State University Northridge; Clayton, John. "Writing an Executive Summary that Means Business." Harvard Management Communication Letter (July 2003): 2-4; Keller, Chuck. "Stay Healthy with a Winning Executive Summary." Technical Communication 41 (1994): 511-517; Murphy, Herta A., Herbert W. Hildebrandt, and Jane P. Thomas. Effective Business Communications . New York: McGraw-Hill, 1997; Vassallo, Philip. "Executive Summaries: Where Less Really is More." ETC.: A Review of General Semantics 60 (Spring 2003): 83-90 .
Writing an Executive Summary
Read the Entire Document This may go without saying, but it is critically important that you read the entire research study thoroughly from start to finish before you begin to write the executive summary. Take notes as you go along, highlighting important statements of fact, key findings, and recommended courses of action. This will better prepare you for how to organize and summarize the study. Remember this is not a brief abstract of 300 words or less but, essentially, a mini-paper of your paper, with a focus on recommendations.
Isolate the Major Points Within the Original Document Choose which parts of the document are the most important to those who will read it. These points must be included within the executive summary in order to provide a thorough and complete explanation of what the document is trying to convey.
Separate the Main Sections Closely examine each section of the original document and discern the main differences in each. After you have a firm understanding about what each section offers in respect to the other sections, write a few sentences for each section describing the main ideas. Although the format may vary, the main sections of an executive summary likely will include the following:
Combine the Information Use the information gathered to combine them into an executive summary that is no longer than 10% of the original document. Be concise! The purpose is to provide a brief explanation of the entire document with a focus on the recommendations that have emerged from your research. How you word this will likely differ depending on your audience and what they care about most. If necessary, selectively incorporate bullet points for emphasis and brevity. Re-read your Executive Summary After you've completed your executive summary, let it sit for a while before coming back to re-read it. Check to make sure that the summary will make sense as a separate document from the full research study. By taking some time before re-reading it, you allow yourself to see the summary with fresh, unbiased eyes.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Length of the Executive Summary As a general rule, the correct length of an executive summary is that it meets the criteria of no more pages than 10% of the number of pages in the original document, with an upper limit of no more than ten pages [i.e., ten pages for a 100 page document]. This requirement keeps the document short enough to be read by your audience, but long enough to allow it to be a complete, stand-alone synopsis. Cutting and Pasting With the exception of specific recommendations made in the study, do not simply cut and paste whole sections of the original document into the executive summary. You should paraphrase information from the longer document. Avoid taking up space with excessive subtitles and lists, unless they are absolutely necessary for the reader to have a complete understanding of the original document. Consider the Audience Although unlikely to be required by your professor, there is the possibility that more than one executive summary will have to be written for a given document [e.g., one for policy-makers, one for private industry, one for philanthropists]. This may only necessitate the rewriting of the introduction and conclusion, but it could require rewriting the entire summary in order to fit the needs of the reader. If necessary, be sure to consider the types of audiences who may benefit from your study and make adjustments accordingly. Clarity in Writing One of the biggest mistakes you can make is related to the clarity of your executive summary. Always note that your audience [or audiences] are likely seeing your research study for the first time. The best way to avoid a disorganized or cluttered executive summary is to write it after the study is completed. Always follow the same strategies for proofreading that you would for any research paper. Use Strong and Positive Language Don’t weaken your executive summary with passive, imprecise language. The executive summary is a stand-alone document intended to convince the reader to make a decision concerning whether to implement the recommendations you make. Once convinced, it is assumed that the full document will provide the details needed to implement the recommendations. Although you should resist the temptation to pad your summary with pleas or biased statements, do pay particular attention to ensuring that a sense of urgency is created in the implications, recommendations, and conclusions presented in the executive summary. Be sure to target readers who are likely to implement the recommendations.
Bailey, Edward, P. The Plain English Approach to Business Writing . (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 73-80; Christensen, Jay. Executive Summaries Complete The Report. California State University Northridge; Executive Summaries. Writing@CSU. Colorado State University; Clayton, John. "Writing an Executive Summary That Means Business." Harvard Management Communication Letter , 2003; Executive Summary. University Writing Center. Texas A&M University; Green, Duncan. Writing an Executive Summary. Oxfam’s Research Guidelines series ; Guidelines for Writing an Executive Summary. Astia.org; Markowitz, Eric. How to Write an Executive Summary. Inc. Magazine, September, 15, 2010; Kawaski, Guy. The Art of the Executive Summary. "How to Change the World" blog; Keller, Chuck. "Stay Healthy with a Winning Executive Summary." Technical Communication 41 (1994): 511-517; The Report Abstract and Executive Summary. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Writing Executive Summaries. Effective Writing Center. University of Maryland; Kolin, Philip. Successful Writing at Work . 10th edition. (Boston, MA: Cengage Learning, 2013), p. 435-437; Moral, Mary. "Writing Recommendations and Executive Summaries." Keeping Good Companies 64 (June 2012): 274-278; Todorovic, Zelimir William and Marietta Wolczacka Frye. “Writing Effective Executive Summaries: An Interdisciplinary Examination.” In United States Association for Small Business and Entrepreneurship. Conference Proceedings . (Decatur, IL: United States Association for Small Business and Entrepreneurship, 2009): pp. 662-691.
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November 26, 2018 | 5 min read
By Christopher Tancock
Why “translating” your research for a general audience can bring many benefits – and how to do so
With thanks to Kristina Killgrove
Elsevier Authors' Update is pleased to present this article in support of PHD2Published Academic Writing Month. opens in new tab/window
You must be rather pleased with that newly-published article. After many long months, your hard work has paid off and that paper has now taken its place in the library of academic literature. Unfortunately, so have another 2.5 million articles just this year. How do you stand out amongst that enormous crowd and get attention? One way of doing this is to make your article as accessible as possible and a good way of achieving that aim is to prepare a lay summary.
Though your colleagues and peers are probably able to get to grips with your article, the chances are that its content will be unintelligible to the average man or woman in the street. What’s more, researchers are increasingly tasked by their institutions and funders to outline the impact of their research for the general public and beyond their specific area of interest. If you can transform your article into something that the wider public can understand, you’ve got yourself another readership - and one who is more likely to share what it is that you’ve discovered/hypothesized/confirmed further. The key to doing this is in producing a lay summary.
A lay summary, or impact statement, is a very efficient way of conveying the essence of your article briefly and clearly. Fundamentally, what you’re aiming to produce is a short paragraph outlining the article content, aimed at non-specialists in the field and written in a way that they can easily understand. This element differentiates it from the abstract, which is designed with your subject peers in mind. The structure of a lay summary should answer the main questions of “who/what/where/when/how many/why?” (in essence, you’re trying to justify why someone should spend time in reading what you’ve produced). Answering these questions in a concise manner will deliver all the details the reader needs. The most important part of it is a “summary within a summary”: one final sentence which explains why the research is important, and what the article has concluded.
Lay summaries are already commonly used by researchers in many subject areas, as they encourage and increase the possibility of collaboration, and some funding bodies even require them as part of their application procedure. Writing such summaries – distilling your work into a “portable” and maximally-accessible form can bring many benefits for your wider interactions with society at large. Among other things, they’re great for use in press releases or when communicating with journalists. In short: this is a communications skill worth learning.
Here are some pointers on how to write a useful lay summary:
Predict and cover the “so what?” factor – justify your research.
Give some background and context to the research. What prompted you to do it?
Follow a logical order. This may not always coincide with a temporal order.
Explain the impact of the work – what is going to change (especially in relation to wider society)?
Use succinct, short sentences – and write in plain English. Imagine you’re talking to an undergraduate who’s just stepped into your introductory class. Or, better still, pretend you’re trying to explain your article to a distant family member who works in retail/fashion/hospitality.
Avoid jargon unless absolutely necessary and explain it if you do have to keep it in.
Use first person and active voice (“we agreed” rather than “it was agreed”).
Use positives not negative sentences: “You will have repeat appointments at least once a fortnight”, rather than “The usual practice is not to schedule repeat appointments more frequently than once a fortnight”
Images are very important – try to include one if you can.
When you think you’re ready with your summary, ask a friendly non-academic to read it. Ask them if they understood it: the number of questions you get might dictate that further revision is needed!
Here at Elsevier we’ve been exploring how we can support authors with writing, hosting and promoting lay summaries. Several of the journals we publish including: Epilepsy & Behavior Case Reports opens in new tab/window , International Journal of Paleopathology , Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports opens in new tab/window and Journal of Hepatology opens in new tab/window now provide lay summaries for selected papers on their homepages. These are made freely available to readers. Note that different journals and subject areas might approach the same basic idea in various ways. For example, the Materials Today group of journals has recently launched its “Contributor” project whereby early and mid-career researchers are encouraged to write “news summaries” of recent articles (which are then checked with the original author(s) for accuracy and published on the Materials Today news page opens in new tab/window ). There might be similar initiatives in your community, so make sure you keep your ear to the ground and get involved if you can.
Looking to the future, we’re also in the process of experimenting with facilitating the submission of lay summaries during the submission process – and aggregating them on a grander scale for authors to aid their discoverability. Stay tuned to hear more on our efforts in this regard.
Lay summaries can be a powerful tool to extend and broaden the impact of your research. Don’t forget that there are a number of other tools available to you as author – check out our guide to “getting noticed” opens in new tab/window , for example. Have a go at writing a summary for your next article and ask your editor if the journal in question is interested in participating in the lay summaries project. Enjoy making a splash with your next article!
Authors' update - keeping journal authors in touch with industry developments, support and training.
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Emma maud powell.
1 Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
2 Epidemiology, GSK, London, United Kingdom
3 Department of Medical Statistics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Paris j. baptiste.
4 Clinical Effectiveness Group, Centre for Primary Care, Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom
5 Methodology and biostatistics team, Department of Efficacy and Safety, Drug sector, Saudi Food and Drug Authority, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Ian j. douglas.
6 School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Data are not publicly available but are available subject to protocol approval via CPRD’s Research Data Governance Process ( https://cprd.com/data-access ) for researchers who meet the criteria for access to confidential data. The data underlying the results presented in the study are available from CPRD ( https://www.cprd.com ).
Stroke prevention guidance for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) uses evidence generated from randomised controlled trials (RCTs). However, applicability to patient groups excluded from trials remains unknown. Real-world patient data provide an opportunity to evaluate outcomes in a trial analogous population of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) users and in patients otherwise excluded from RCTs; however, there remains uncertainty on the validity of methods and suitability of the data.
Successful reference trial emulation can support the generation of evidence around treatment effects in groups excluded or underrepresented in trials.
We used linked United Kingdom primary care data to investigate whether we could emulate the pivotal ARISTOTLE trial (apixaban versus warfarin) and extend the analysis to investigate the impact of warfarin time in therapeutic range (TTR) on results.
Patients with AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD Aurum) prescribed apixaban or warfarin from 1 January 2013 to 31 July 2019 were selected. ARISTOTLE eligibility criteria were applied to this population and matched to the RCT apixaban arm on baseline characteristics creating a trial-analogous apixaban cohort; this was propensity-score matched to warfarin users in the CPRD Aurum. ARISTOTLE outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression stratified by prior warfarin exposure status during 2.5 years of patient follow-up and results benchmarked against the trial results before treatment effectiveness was further evaluated based on (warfarin) TTR.
The dataset comprised 8,734 apixaban users and propensity-score matched 8,734 warfarin users. Results [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval)] confirmed apixaban noninferiority for stroke or systemic embolism (SE) [CPRD 0.98 (0.82,1.19) versus trial 0.79 (0.66,0.95)] and death from any cause [CPRD 1.03 (0.93,1.14) versus trial 0.89 (0.80,0.998)] but did not indicate apixaban superiority. Absolute event rates for stroke/SE were similar for apixaban in CPRD Aurum and ARISTOTLE (1.27%/year), whereas a lower event rate was observed for warfarin (CPRD Aurum 1.29%/year, ARISTOTLE 1.60%/year).
Analysis by TTR suggested similar effectiveness of apixaban compared with poorly controlled warfarin (TTR < 0.75) for stroke/SE [0.91 (0.73, 1.14)], all-cause death [0.94 (0.84, 1.06)], and superiority for major bleeding [0.74 (0.63, 0.86)]. However, when compared with well-controlled warfarin (TTR ≥ 0.75), apixaban was associated with an increased hazard for all-cause death [1.20 (1.04, 1.37)], and there was no significant benefit for major bleeding [1.08 (0.90, 1.30)]. The main limitation of the study’s methodology are the risk of residual confounding, channelling bias and attrition bias in the warfarin arm, and selection bias and misclassification in the analysis by TTR.
Analysis of noninterventional data generated results demonstrating noninferiority of apixaban versus warfarin consistent with prespecified benchmarking criteria. Unlike in ARISTOTLE, superiority of apixaban versus warfarin was not seen, possible due to the lower proportion of Asian patients and higher proportion of patients with well-controlled warfarin compared to ARISTOTLE. This methodological template can be used to investigate treatment effects of oral anticoagulants in patient groups excluded from or underrepresented in trials and provides a framework that can be adapted to investigate treatment effects for other conditions.
Emma Maud Powell and colleagues use target trial emulation to demonstrate how real world data can extend our knowledge of anticoagulation treatment effects using non-interventional methods.
Why was this study done.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common type of cardiac arrhythmia with an estimated prevalence of 3.3% in UK adults aged ≥35 years [ 1 ]. AF is a risk factor for stroke; patients with AF have a 5-fold increased risk of stroke compared with people without AF [ 2 ], and around a quarter of all strokes are attributed to this arrhythmia [ 3 ]. In addition, increased levels of mortality, morbidity, and disability with longer hospital stays are observed in stroke patients with AF compared with stroke patients without AF [ 4 , 5 ].
Pharmacological therapy recommended to reduce the risk of stroke in AF includes the use of oral anticoagulants (OACs). The introduction of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for AF since 2012 in the United Kingdom provided a choice of treatment alongside the older OAC class of vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), such as warfarin, which has been available for over 60 years. The VKA OACs require regular monitoring of international normalised ratio (INR) to keep patients in the optimal therapeutic range (typically 2.0 to 3.0) in which risk of both ischemic and bleeding events are minimised [ 6 ]. A patient may require dose adjustments to stay within their INR target range. A key measure of quality of warfarin treatment is, therefore, the time in therapeutic range (TTR), which estimates the proportion of time a patient has spent with INR within optimal range. A TTR of 0.75 or greater is often considered as indicating optimal INR control and suggests a patient is spending a high proportion of their time in their INR target range.
ARISTOTLE was a pivotal randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the DOAC apixaban designed to demonstrate noninferiority compared with warfarin in the prevention of stroke or systemic embolism (SE) in patients with AF. The results demonstrated superiority of apixaban over warfarin for both prevention of stroke/SE and safety (major bleeding) [ 7 ]. Results in the European Union patient subset from the trial suggested the observed superiority of apixaban might be dependent on how well warfarin therapy was managed in the comparator group [ 8 ], an analysis that has not yet been performed outside of trial settings. In the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) review of ARISTOTLE, several professional groups noted the TTR of warfarin users in ARISTOTLE may be lower than what is typical in UK clinical practice [ 9 ].
Treatment guidelines for DOACs are based on evidence from RCTs; however, it is unclear whether these results extend to patient groups typically excluded from trials such as those with increased bleeding risk or severe comorbidities. While there have been a number of previous studies of DOAC effectiveness using noninterventional data, there remains uncertainty on whether the data sources and methods used have fully accounted for the lack of treatment randomisation and issues such as selection bias and confounding. Comparing results from real-world studies with RCT results is challenging due to differences in patient populations, treatment adherence, and study design. However, reference trial emulation involves use of an existing named RCT to (1) inform observational study design and (2) benchmark results against, providing confidence in validity of the selected observational methods and data [ 10 – 13 ]. The noninterventional analysis methods can then be applied, under a set of assumptions, to reliably estimate effects in groups of patients with AF who would have been excluded from (or underrepresented in) the reference trial [ 14 ] such as patients aged >80 that were underrepresented in ARISTOTLE compared with patients with AF in UK clinical practice and patients with increased bleeding risk that were excluded by the trial eligibility criteria.
There is increasing interest in trial emulation using observation data and in the application of recent developments in pharmacoepidemiology methods involving the inclusion of prevalent users. This study used a framework that involved coarsened exact matching to select patients matching the trial population on aggregate, and sampling of prevalent users in a way that avoids selection bias and emulates the process of screening into an RCT, to construct a cohort of patients similar to the target trial population that included both new and prevalent users. This methodological approach could be adapted to a variety of treatments and different therapeutic areas.
This study sought to (1) create an ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort using routinely collected primary and secondary care data in the UK, (2) benchmark results obtained in the ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort with ARISTOTLE results, and (3) explore whether apixaban treatment-effects in clinical practice are influenced by how well warfarin therapy is controlled.
This study is reported as per the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guideline ( S1 STROBE Checklist).
A propensity score (PS) matched cohort study with emulation of a reference trial (ARISTOTLE).
Uk electronic healthcare records.
This study used noninterventional data from UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum, a database containing anonymised data from 738 primary care practices across England (approximately 13% of the population of England with 19 million patient records and 7 million active as of September 2018 [ 15 ]). CPRD Aurum contains information on clinical diagnoses, prescribing, referrals, tests, and demographic/lifestyle factors and is representative of the population of England in geographical spread, social deprivation, age, and sex [ 15 ]. This study also used 2 additional data sources linked to CPRD Aurum: Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) data, which contain data on patients admitted to NHS hopsitals including diagnoses, admission, and discharge, and Office of National Statistics (ONS) mortality data.
ARISTOTLE was a randomised, double-blind trial completed in 2011, comparing apixaban with warfarin in the prevention of stroke and SE. The trial included 18,201 patients with AF and at least 1 additional risk factor for stroke. The trial was designed to test for noninferiority of apixaban compared with warfarin (noninferiorirty margin of 1.38 for the upper limit of the 95% CI of the hazard ratio (HR) for the primary outcome) and showed apixaban superiority for (1) the primary outcome of stroke or SE (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.66, 0.95), (2) the safety endpoint of major bleeding (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.60, 0.80), and (3) death from any cause (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.80, 0.99). The ARISTOTLE findings led to the NICE guidelines on stroke prophylaxis in patients with AF recommending apixaban as a treatment.
ARISTOTLE eligibility criteria and summary baseline patient characteristics were used to select a cohort of patients from CPRD Aurum analogous to the ARISTOTLE participants.
The use of CPRD and ARISTOTLE are described in a previous publication [ 14 ], and the use of CPRD for this project was approved by the MHRA Independent Scientific Advisory Committee ( S1 ISAC Protocol). All data used in this study were anonymised.
All diagnostic and therapeutic codelist files used are available at https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/3590/ .
Step 1: application of trial eligibility criteria to patients in cprd.
We first selected HES-linked patients registered in CPRD Aurum between 1 January 2013 and 31 July 2019, who had at least 6 months between registration and the index date. ARISTOTLE recruited both new (warfarin-naïve) and prevalent (warfarin-experienced) users of warfarin with randomisation stratified on prior warfarin (or other VKA) exposure status (warfarin naïve or experienced). To be classified as warfarin-naïve patients were required to have no evidence of exposure to warfarin or other VKA in the 5 years prior to the index date. To enable selection of a similar cohort of patients in CPRD Aurum (including both new and prevalent users of warfarin), the following process was used in determining index date:
- apixaban users
index date = first prescription of apixaban in the study period;
apixaban user classified as warfarin-naïve or warfarin-experienced at this date
- warfarin users
for new users of warfarin: index date = first prescription of warfarin in the study period;
for prevalent users of warfarin: a pool of potential index dates was selected containing all prescription dates in the study period, with index date selected at the later treatment-history sampling stage (see step 3).
ARISTOTLE eligibility criteria (Table A2 in S1 Appendix ) [ 7 ] were applied giving a trial-eligible cohort for apixaban users, a trial-eligible cohort of new users of warfarin, and a pool of potential index dates (with all potential index dates kept in regardless of ARISTOTLE eligibility at this stage) for warfarin continuers (prevalent warfarin users).
We selected a subset of the CPRD Aurum trial-eligible apixaban patients that better matched the ARISTOTLE apixaban participants based on aggregate summaries for the following key ARISTOTLE baseline characteristics:
To characterise the baseline patient characteristics of ARISTOTLE, we used the key publication of the trial results [ 7 ], discussion of trial results by regulatory bodies [ 8 , 9 , 16 ], and publications on the trial presenting cross-tabulations on key characteristics [ 17 , 18 ].
An ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort of CPRD Aurum apixaban patients was then selected using a modified form of coarsened exact matching [ 19 ] (see S1 Appendix for details).
To emulate ARISTOTLE, which stratified randomisation on prior VKA exposure status, patients in the CPRD cohort were matched separately within the VKA-naïve and VKA-experienced strata. A 3-step procedure, based on methods proposed by Suissa and colleagues [ 20 ] and Webster-Clark and colleagues [ 21 ], was used to select and match patients in the VKA-experienced strata while avoiding selection bias; this procedure is summarised in Fig 1 and described in S1 Appendix .
CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; RCT, randomised controlled trial; VKA, vitamin K antagonist.
The trial-analogous CPRD Aurum apixaban patients were matched to warfarin CPRD Aurum patients using greedy nearest-neighbour matching on the logit of the PS; a caliper of 0.2 times the standard deviation of the logit of the PS was used for matching as recommended by Austin [ 22 ].
The covariates included in the PS models are detailed in Table 1 .
Category | Variable List |
---|---|
Demographics | age, sex, ethnicity |
CHADS stroke risk factors | congestive heart failure or left ventricular systolic dysfunction, hypertension requiring treatment, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke/TIA/SE |
Vascular stroke risk factors | prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, aortic plaque, history of pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis |
Other risk factors | body mass index, systolic blood pressure, history of bleeding, smoking status, alcohol consumption, socioeconomic status (imd2105_5), ethnicity |
Concomitant medications | aspirin, clopidogrel, NSAIDs, antacids, statins, ACEIs or ARBs, beta blockers, calcium channel blockers, statins, amiodarone, digoxin, proton pump inhibitors, H2 receptor antagonist |
Comorbidities | renal function, history of fall, Charlson comorbidity components (COPD, connective tissue disease, peptic ulcer disease, liver disease, hemiplegia, cancer, haematological cancer), healthcare utilisation (number of GP consults in the prior year, number of hospitalizations in the prior year) |
AF factors | time since AF diagnosis, history of valvular disease, history of valvular surgery |
Healthcare utilisation | number of GP consults in the prior year, number of hospitalizations in the prior year |
ACEI, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor; AF, atrial fibrillation; ARB, angiotensin receptor blocker; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; GP, general practicioner; NSAID, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug; PS, propensity score; SE, systemic embolism; TIA, transient ischemic attack.
The model resulting in the most balanced cohort was chosen with balance assessed by looking at standardised differences across all variables after matching using a target threshold of 0.05 for the maximum difference allowed for any individual variable. Balance of covariates considered to be most important in predicting outcome were prioritised, namely, age, sex, and stroke risk factors.
Exposure to apixaban (5 mg/2.5 mg) or warfarin was determined using CPRD prescribing records with no restrictions on the dose prescribed.
The primary effectiveness outcome was the composite of stroke (ischemic or haemorrhagic) or SE; individual components of this outcome (stroke, ischemic or uncertain type of stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, SE) and death from any cause were the key secondary effectiveness outcomes. Secondary effectiveness outcomes included myocardial infarction (MI), pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis, and composite endpoints of effectiveness outcomes. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (including by location—intracranial, gastrointestinal, or other location such as urinary or gynaecological). All outcomes involved hospitalisation or death and were ascertained using HES and ONS data. The ICD-10 codes used in ascertaining stroke occurrence have been recommended as having high positive predictive value [ 23 ].
Methods of analysis.
A prospective protocol was published prior to the analysis detailing the planned analyses ([ 14 ]; also in S1 Appendix ).
Changes from the planned protocol are described in Table 2 .
Original Planned Analysis | Updated Analysis | Reason for Change |
---|---|---|
Patients to be selected from both CPRD GOLD and CPRD Aurum. | Only CPRD Aurum used. | There was a much larger sample size available in CPRD Aurum meaning combining of the 2 data sources was not required. |
Censoring scheme to censor at 5 years after index date. | Censoring scheme censored at 2.5 years after index date. | The ARISTOTLE trial had median duration of follow-up of 1.8 years (IQR 1.4, 2.3); therefore, a 2.5-year cutoff gives a more similar duration of follow-up than 5 years. |
Adherence of apixaban users to be measured by proportion of days covered by prescriptions. | Treatment persistence measured instead (proportion of patients still on index treatment at date of censoring). | Repeat prescriptions are often issued automatically, meaning comparing number of days covered by prescribed pills to the number of days in the treatment period did not provide useful insight on adherence. |
Supplementary analysis in patients deemed adherent (PDC ≥ 80%, ARISTOTLE compliance limit). | Analysis by TTR only. | Unable to ascertain useful measure of adherence in the apixaban users. |
Noninferiority will be concluded when the upper limit of the 95% CI for the HR must be less than 1.52 (upper limit in the EU subgroup of ARISTOTLE). | Noninferiority will be concluded when the upper limit of the 95% CI for the HR is less than 1.38 (same noninferiority margin of ARISTOTLE). | The noninferiority margin used in ARISTOTLE was the one agreed by regulators to represent the maximum acceptable clinical difference. By applying the same margin, we ensure that the conclusion is based on more rigorous criteria. |
Aim to include prior INR control in propensity model for VKA-experienced patients. | Primary analysis does not include prior INR control. Post hoc sensitivity analysis performed including prior INR control in the PS model. | High rate of missing data for prior INR control made it not advisable to include this variable in the PS model for the main analysis. Other variables predictive of poor INR control such as age are already included. Post hoc sensitivity analysis including INR control in the PS model performed to assess the potential impact of not including this variable following question in peer review on the omission of this variable. |
N/A | Post hoc analysis assessing apixaban dose-adjustment in CPRD Aurum | Suggested by peer review to provide evidence on the quality of dose adjustment in CPRD Aurum and how this may impact the results in the trial-analogous cohort. |
CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; HR, hazard ratio; INR, international normalised ratio; IQR, interquartile range; PS, propensity score; TTR, time in therapeutic range; VKA, vitamin K antagonist.
All time-to-event endpoints were analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model, stratified by prior VKA status (experienced, naïve). The effectiveness outcomes were analysed using the intention-to-treat principle, and major bleeding was analysed using an on-treatment censoring scheme. Patients were censored at 2.5 years after index date reflecting typical maximum duration of follow-up in ARISTOTLE. Cluster-robust standard errors were used with pair membership as the clustering variable [ 24 , 25 ]. The proportional hazards assumption was assessed by looking at the log-log of the Kaplan–Meier survival curves and inspection of scaled Schoenfeld residuals plotted against time. Analyses were performed using SAS version 9.4 and R version 4.2.1.
A protocol planned analysis in the subset of patients deemed adherent (with adherence measured by TTR in the warfarin users and by proportion of days covered by prescriptions in the apixaban users) was planned to assess the impact of adherence on outcomes. The planned analysis was not possible due to the apixaban prescription data not providing a useful measure of adherence. An analysis by INR TTR was performed instead to assess the impact of warfarin control on results with all outcomes analysed by TTR (TTR < 0.75 and TTR ≥ 0.75). Individual predicted TTR based on baseline variables was used for patients missing TTR. In order to perform the TTR analysis while maintaining balance in the baseline covariates, inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to rebalance the baseline characteristics, applying stabilised weights to the ARISTOTLE-analogous apixaban users. A similar approach to the main analysis was used with PS models constructed separately for the new users and warfarin-experienced users.
An additional post hoc analysis was performed looking at the proportion of apixaban patients prescribed reduced-dose apixaban along with a comparison of the patients meeting the criteria for dose-reduction against the dose actually prescribed. In this analysis, apixaban dose in the ARISTOTLE-analogous CPRD cohort was assessed and compared against the ARISTOTLE protocol-specified criteria and NICE criteria for reduced apixaban dose. ARISTOTLE specified that participants meeting any 2 of the following criteria assessed at the time of randomisation should have their apixaban dose reduced to 2.5 mg BID: age ≥80 years, body weight ≤60 kg, or serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dL. These criteria are equivalent to the NICE guidelines for dose reduction with NICE having an additional criteria indicating reduced dose in those with creatinine clearance 15 to 29 mL/minute.
In addition, to assess the impact of the quality of dose-adjustment in the CPRD cohort on the observed effectiveness of apixaban relative to warfarin, a supplementary post hoc analysis was performed looking at the results in the subset of apixaban patients prescribed the correct dose compared with IPTW rebalanced warfarin comparators.
Primary and secondary effectiveness outcomes were also analysed using the on-treatment censoring scheme to investigate whether treatment discontinuation compromises confidence in the effectiveness analyses.
Treatment persistence was defined by looking at longitudinal prescription data for OACs; OAC treatment windows were derived in which gaps > = 6 months between prescription dates were considered as distinct treatment windows. The end of each OAC treatment window was derived as the date of the last prescription of index OAC + the number of days supply given in the last prescription + a grace period of 30 days. In cases of overlapping OAC treatment windows, the date of the first prescription of the subsequent OAC treatment window was used to define the end of the prior OAC window. A prescription for a different OAC from the index OAC treatment was considered as a treatment switch. An ending of index OAC treatment with no subsequent prescription for any other OAC recorded was considered as treatment stop. Gaps of > = 6 months with no subsequent OAC prescriptions recorded were categorised as having stopped OAC treatment.
The set of patients who switched or discontinued treatment during follow-up were examined to ascertain whether selection bias due to attrition may have affected the on-treatment analyses (Table A9 in S1 Appendix ).
Apixaban was first launched for AF in the UK in January 2013, with relatively few patients receiving a prescription in the first year it was available; we therefore performed a sensitivity analysis with the start of study period shifted forwards a year to investigate the impact of inclusion of early adopters who may differ from later adopters of a new drug.
In the study period, apixaban was a newly available treatment leading to the possibility of channelling bias [ 26 ]. By applying trial eligibility criteria to both treatment cohorts and matching using baseline covariates, we aimed to minimise channelling bias. To handle confounding, treatment arms were matched using propensity score matching (PSM) [ 27 ].
The study hypothesis was that results in the CPRD ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort would be comparable to the ARISTOTLE results, as defined by the prespecified benchmarking criteria. A slightly weaker benefit of apixaban versus warfarin was expected based on the weaker benefit seen in the EU subgroup of ARISTOTLE, and an expectation that the quality of warfarin control in UK patients may be higher than that observed in ARISTOTLE.
The benchmarking criteria for considering the results in the trial-analogous CPRD cohort to be comparable with ARISTOTLE were prespecified and published previously [ 14 ]:
The benchmarking step applied only to the primary effectiveness outcome in the trial-analogous CPRD cohort; results in other groups such as patients underrepresented or excluded from the trial would not necessarily be expected to remain consistent to the RCT results, given the relative risks may differ in these groups. Comparability of other outcomes was to be assessed descriptively with no formal criteria or hypothesis testing used.
Patients with missing systolic blood pressure (0.1%), body mass index (3.3%), smoking status (0.1%), or socioeconomic status (0.1%) were excluded from the trial-eligible cohort as the proportion of patients with these missing was low. Patients with missing renal function (1.3%), ethnicity (0.4%), or alcohol use (5.6%) were kept in the cohort through a missing indicator approach; this approach is valid under the assumption that these variables act as confounders and influence clinician prescribing decisions only when observed [ 28 ]. A total of 1,176 (13.3%) warfarin users in the CPRD cohort did not have INR measurements in the data during their treatment period with predicted TTR used for these patients in the analysis by TTR (see S1 Appendix for details).
Scientific approval was provided by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine research ethics committee (ref 17682) and the independent scientific advisory committee of the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (protocol no. 19_066R). CPRD data are already approved via a national research ethics committee for purely noninterventional research of this type. CPRD data are analysed anonmymously; therefore, individual patient consent is not sought by contributing medical practices when data are shared with CPRD; however, patients are able to opt out of their patient information being shared for research.
Between 1 January 2013 and 31 July 2019, there were 86,888 people with AF prescribed apixaban and 159,632 prescribed warfarin in HES-linked CPRD Aurum practices ( Fig 2 ). Application of minimum registration period and ARISTOTLE inclusion criteria reduced this to 67,539 apixaban and 139,527 warfarin patients. After applying ARISTOTLE exclusion criteria, there were 41,487 apixaban and 101,159 warfarin patients.
Flow of number of individuals included in the analysis. AF, atrial fibrillation; ALT, alanine transaminase; AST, aspartate transaminase; BMI, body mass index; BP, blood pressure; CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; HES, Hospital Episodes Statistics; Rx, Prescription; SES, socioeconomic status; ULN, upper limit of normal; VKA, vitamin K antagonist. a Severe comorbid condition with life expectancy <1 year or reasons making participation impractical; b ALT or AST > 2X ULN or Total Bilirubin ≥ 1.5X ULN; c Pregnant or breastfeeding within 3 years prior. See Table A1 in S1 Appendix for detailed list of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Note: For prevalent warfarin users, trial eligibility only revealed at point of random selection into the cohort for prevalent users. Numbers in figure show maximum theoretical number of warfarin users available should they be selected only at a time they were eligible for the trial.
Selecting apixaban patients to match ARISTOTLE on key baseline characteristics yielded 9,120 apixaban patients (3,912 new users and 5,208 prevalent users) available for PSM to 101,159 warfarin patients. For 274 apixaban patients, no match could be found giving a PS matched cohort of 8,846 apixaban and 8,846 warfarin patients.
Applying the ARISTOTLE inclusion/exclusion criteria and matching to ARISTOTLE baseline patient characteristics resulted in a cohort similar to the ARISTOTLE apixaban participants ( Table 3 ); for example, median age was 78 and mean CHADS 2 score 2.4 in CPRD Aurum before applying trial criteria and matching, whereas the median age of 71 and mean CHADS 2 score 2.1 after these steps matched the ARISTOTLE apixaban participants. The ARISTOTLE-analogous apixaban arm matched the trial arm on prior VKA exposure, age, sex, stroke risk factors and CHADS 2 score, and proportion of patients with moderate or severe renal impairment.
CPRD Aurum | ARISTOTLE Trial | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No ARISTOTLE criteria or matching | After applying ARISTOTLE criteria | After applying ARISTOTLE criteria, matching to the trial and PSM apixaban to warfarin | |||||||
Apixaban ( = 73,843) | Warfarin ( = 146,332) | Apixaban ( = 41,487) | Warfarin ( = 101,159) | Apixaban ( = 8,846) | Warfarin ( = 8,846) | Standardised difference | Apixaban ( = 9,120) | Warfarin ( = 9,081) | |
78 (70, 85) | 78 (71, 84) | 78 (71, 84) | 78 (72, 84) | 71 (63, 77) | 71 (63, 77) | 0.008 | 70 (63, 76) | 70 (63, 76) | |
34,430 (46.6) | 63,321 (43.3) | 19,591 (47.2) | 44,197 (43.7) | 3,144 (35.5) | 3,190 (36.1) | 0.011 | 3,234 (35.5) | 3,182 (35.0) | |
130 (120, 140) | 130 (120, 140) | 131 (120, 140) | 130 (120, 140) | 130 (120, 140) | 130 (120, 140) | 0.001 | 130 (120, 140) | 130 (120, 140) | |
132 | 267 | 60 | 125 | 0 | 0 | ||||
79 (67, 92) | 80 (68, 93) | 80 (68, 93) | 80 (69, 94) | 85 (73, 100) | 85 (74, 99) | 0.003 | 82 (70, 96) | 82 (70, 95) | |
9,958 (13.5) | 20,406 (13.9) | 5,035 (12.1) | 13,446 (13.3) | 1,090 (12.3) | 1,074 (12.1) | 0.006 | 1,319 (14.5) | 1,266 (13.9) | |
16,972 (23.0) | 31,034 (21.2) | 7,721 (18.6) | 19,007 (18.8) | 1,533 (17.3) | 1,507 (17.0) | 0.008 | 1,525 (16.7) | 1,515 (16.7) | |
2,443 (3.3) | 2,688 (1.8) | 1,093 (2.6) | 1,561 (1.5) | 137 (1.5) | 131 (1.5) | 0.006 | 386 (4.2) | 367 (4.0) | |
24,240 (32.8) | 102,725 (70.2) | 12,558 (30.3) | 75,787 (74.9) | 4,944 (55.9) | 4,944 (55.9) | 0.000 | 5,208 (57.1) | 5,193 (57.2) | |
45,762 (62.0) | 93,436 (63.9) | 26,730 (64.4) | 68,197 (67.4) | 2,770 (31.3) | 2,740 (31.0) | 0.007 | 2,850 (31.2) | 2,828 (31.1) | |
20,713 (28.1) | 38,132 (26.1) | 11,422 (27.5) | 25,898 (25.6) | 1,711 (19.3) | 1,709 (19.3) | 0.001 | 1,748 (19.2) | 1,790 (19.7) | |
22,329 (30.2) | 50,480 (34.5) | 11,650 (28.1) | 33,422 (33.0) | 3,052 (34.5) | 3,022 (34.2) | 0.007 | 3,235 (35.5) | 3,216 (35.4) | |
20,104 (27.2) | 40,103 (27.4) | 11,630 (28.0) | 28,496 (28.2) | 2,243 (25.4) | 2,275 (25.7) | 0.008 | 2,284 (25.0) | 2,263 (24.9) | |
52,406 (71.0) | 105,097 (71.8) | 31,780 (76.6) | 76,923 (76.0) | 7,662 (86.6) | 7,669 (86.7) | 0.002 | 7,962 (87.3) | 7,954 (87.6) | |
2.4 ± 1.5 | 2.4 ± 1.4 | 2.5 ± 1.3 | 2.5 ± 1.2 | 2.1 ± 1.1 | 2.1 ± 1.1 | 0.003 | 2.1 ± 1.1 | 2.1 ± 1.1 | |
6,494 (8.8) | 10,240 (7.0) | 134 (0.3) | 356 (0.4) | 52 (0.6) | 55 (0.6) | 0.004 | 54 (0.6) | 58 (0.6) | |
14,860 (20.1) | 28,124 (19.2) | 10,602 (25.6) | 23,539 (23.3) | 2,971 (33.6) | 2,912 (32.9) | 0.014 | 3,046 (33.4) | 3,025 (33.3) | |
19,844 (26.9) | 43,294 (29.6) | 12,969 (31.3) | 32,980 (32.6) | 3,157 (35.7) | 3,239 (36.6) | 0.019 | 3,262 (35.8) | 3,254 (35.8) | |
32,645 (44.2) | 64,674 (44.2) | 17,783 (42.9) | 44,284 (43.8) | 2,666 (30.1) | 2,640 (29.8) | 0.006 | 2,758 (30.2) | 2,744 (30.2) | |
34,899 (47.3) | 82,841 (56.6) | 21,656 (52.2) | 61,435 (60.7) | 5,529 (62.5) | 5,573 (63.0) | 0.010 | 6,464 (70.9) | 6,368 (70.1) | |
1,903 (2.6) | 4,859 (3.3) | 961 (2.3) | 3,259 (3.2) | 336 (3.8) | 322 (3.6) | 0.008 | 1,009 (11.1) | 1,042 (11.5) | |
46,173 (62.5) | 88,274 (60.3) | 25,990 (62.6) | 62,016 (61.3) | 6,083 (68.8) | 6,031 (68.2) | 0.013 | 5,797 (63.6) | 5,685 (62.6) | |
5,209 (7.1%) | 10,833 (7.4%) | 2,612 (6.3) | 6,429 (6.4) | 514 (5.8) | 557 (6.3) | 0.020 | 2,859 (31.3) | 2,773 (30.5) | |
2,697 (3.7%) | 3,697 (2.5%) | 1,238 (3.0) | 2,177 (2.2) | 229 (2.6) | 215 (2.4) | 0.010 | 170 (1.9) | 168 (1.9) | |
9,771 (13.2) | 33,342 (22.8) | 5,147 (12.4) | 23,322 (23.1) | 1,232 (13.9) | 1,244 (14.1) | 0.004 | 2,916 (32.0) | 2,912 (32.1) | |
19,659 (26.6) | 39,909 (27.3) | 12,522 (30.2) | 30,379 (30.0) | 2,965 (33.5) | 2,994 (33.8) | 0.007 | 2,744 (30.1) | 2,823 (31.1) | |
39,027 (52.9) | 82,086 (56.1) | 23,035 (55.5) | 58,647 (58.0) | 5,230 (59.1) | 5,228 (59.1) | 0.000 | 4,104 (45.0) | 4,095 (45.1) | |
4,953 (6.7) | 8,107 (5.5) | 2,939 (7.1) | 5,891 (5.8) | 487 (5.5) | 479 (5.4) | 0.004 | 752 (8.2) | 768 (8.5) | |
1,833 (2.5) | 3,290 (2.2) | 1,042 (2.5) | 2,346 (2.3) | 180 (2.0) | 180 (2.0) | 0.000 | 1,683 (18.5) | 1,667 (18.4) | |
2,844 (38.0) | 47,838 (32.7) | 15,197 (36.6) | 31,769 (31.4) | 3,052 (34.5) | 3,104 (35.1) | 0.012 | |||
3,188 (4.3) | 4,837 (3.3) | 1,586 (3.8) | 3,006 (3.0) | 281 (3.2) | 250 (2.8) | 0.021 | |||
21,591 (29.2) | 45,793 (31.3) | 12,261 (29.6) | 31,451 (31.1) | 4,098 (46.3) | 4,074 (46.1) | 0.005 | 3,761 (41.2) | 3,757 (41.4) | |
28,976 (39.2) | 56,742 (38.8) | 17,494 (42.2) | 41,290 (40.8) | 3,307 (37.4) | 3,292 (37.2) | 0.004 | 3,817 (41.9) | 3,770 (41.5) | |
17,007 (23.0) | 32,881 (22.5) | 9,708 (23.4) | 23,316 (23.0) | 1,276 (14.4) | 1,306 (14.8) | 0.010 | 1,365 (15.0) | 1,382 (15.2) | |
4,317 (5.8) | 9,251 (6.3) | 1,053 (2.5) | 4,251 (4.2) | 126 (1.4) | 132 (1.5) | 0.006 | 137 (1.5) | 133 (1.5) | |
1,952 (2.6) | 1,665 (1.1) | 972 (2.3) | 851 (0.8) | 39 (0.4) | 42 (0.5) | 0.005 | 40 (0.4) | 39 (0.4) | |
5,984 (8.1) | 12,764 (8.7) | 2,770 (6.7) | 7,516 (7.4) | 552 (6.2) | 538 (6.1) | 0.007 | |||
17,919 (24.3) | 40,415 (27.6) | 8,974 (21.6) | 25,193 (24.9) | 2,097 (23.7) | 2,057 (23.3) | 0.011 | |||
27,568 (37.3) | 51,612 (35.3) | 15,949 (38.4) | 36,338 (35.9) | 3,186 (36.0) | 3,164 (35.8) | 0.005 | |||
40,815 (55.3) | 84,850 (58.0) | 22,757 (54.9) | 58,669 (58.0) | 4,925 (55.7) | 4,945 (55.9) | 0.005 | |||
5,236 (7.1) | 9,658 (6.6) | 2,688 (6.5) | 6,049 (6.0) | 735 (8.3) | 737 (8.3) | 0.001 | |||
224 | 211 | 94 | 102 | 0 | 0 | ||||
27,185 (36.8) | 52,744 (36.0) | 14,957 (36.1) | 35,905 (35.5) | 2,802 (31.7) | 2,842 (32.1) | 0.010 | |||
32,190 (43.6) | 66,072 (45.2) | 18,762 (45.2) | 46,876 (46.3) | 4,135 (46.7) | 4,153 (46.9) | 0.004 | |||
8,950 (12.1) | 15,916 (10.9) | 5,053 (12.2) | 11,109 (11.0) | 1,563 (17.7) | 1,515 (17.1) | 0.014 | |||
1,488 (2.0) | 2,028 (1.4) | 617 (1.5) | 1,149 (1.1) | 203 (2.3) | 204 (2.3) | 0.001 | |||
3,901 | 9,223 | 2,032 | 5,893 | 143 | 132 | ||||
18,893 (25.6) | 36,046 (24.6) | 10,867 (26.2) | 25,270 (25.0) | 2,246 (25.4) | 2,231 (25.2) | 0.004 | |||
17,203 (23.3) | 33,585 (23.0) | 9,768 (23.5) | 23,473 (23.2) | 2,098 (23.7) | 2,057 (23.3) | 0.011 | |||
14,591 (19.8) | 29,856 (20.4) | 8,207 (19.8) | 20,704 (20.5) | 1,715 (19.4) | 1,759 (19.9) | 0.013 | |||
12,283 (16.6) | 25,614 (17.5) | 6,767 (16.3) | 17,498 (17.3) | 1,443 (16.3) | 1,465 (16.6) | 0.007 | |||
10,804 (14.6) | 21,066 (14.4) | 5,843 (14.1) | 14,098 (13.9) | 1,344 (15.2) | 1,334 (15.1) | 0.003 | |||
69 | 165 | 36 | 116 | 0 | 0 | ||||
70,703 (95.7) | 141,019 (96.4) | 39,685 (95.7) | 97,735 (96.6) | 8,424 (95.2) | 8,444 (95.5) | 0.011 | 7,536 (82.6) | 7,493 (82.5) | |
714 (1.0) | 1,326 (0.9) | 372 (0.9) | 821 (0.8) | 104 (1.2) | 103 (1.2) | 0.001 | 125 (1.4) | 102 (1.1) | |
1,371 (1.9) | 2,481 (1.7) | 774 (1.9) | 1,536 (1.5) | 214 (2.4) | 209 (2.4) | 0.000 | 1,310 (14.4) | 1,332 (14.7) | |
198 (0.3) | 356 (0.2) | 113 (0.3) | 232 (0.2) | 22 (0.2) | 22 (0.2) | 0.000 | 149 (1.6) | 153 (1.7) | |
152 (0.2) | 308 (0.2) | 75 (0.2) | 190 (0.2) | 25 (0.3) | 28 (0.3) | 0.006 | 0 | 0 | |
385 (0.5) | 448 (0.3) | 252 (0.6) | 350 (0.3) | 42 (0.5) | 25 (0.3) | 0.031 | 0 | 0 | |
10,324 (14.0) | 19,033 (13.0) | 5,411 (13.0) | 12,573 (12.4) | 1,138 (12.9) | 1,141 (12.9) | 0.001 | |||
5,377 (7.3) | 9,784 (6.7) | 3,000 (7.2) | 6,744 (6.7) | 536 (6.1) | 534 (6.0) | 0.001 | |||
4,400 (6.0) | 8,399 (5.7) | 2,161 (5.2) | 5,458 (5.4) | 411 (4.6) | 393 (4.4) | 0.010 | |||
761 (1.0) | 1,291 (0.9) | 263 (0.6) | 642 (0.6) | 76 (0.9) | 61 (0.7) | 0.019 | |||
265 (0.4) | 559 (0.4) | 147 (0.4) | 379 (0.4) | 24 (0.3) | 16 (0.2) | 0.019 | |||
12,567 (17.0) | 23,383 (16.0) | 6,019 (14.5) | 14,413 (14.2) | 1,066 (12.1) | 1,146 (13.0) | 0.027 | |||
1,966 (2.7) | 3,481 (2.4) | 951 (2.3) | 2,231 (2.2) | 174 (2.0) | 163 (1.8) | 0.009 | |||
28 (24, 32) | 28 (23, 32) | 28 (25, 32) | 28 (25, 32) | 29 (26, 33) | 29 (26, 33) | 0.003 | |||
2 270 | 5 858 | 1 166 | 3 593 | 0 | 0 |
ACE, angiotensin-converting enzyme; ARB, angiotensin-receptor blocker; BMI, body mass index; CHADS 2 , stroke risk factor score based on congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, prior stroke; CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; IMD2015, Index of Multiple Deprivation 2015; imp., impairment; IQR, interquartile range; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; MI, myocardial infarction; PSM, propensity score matching; SD, standard deviation; SE, systemic embolism; TIA, transient ischemic attack; VKA, vitamin K antagonist.
Differences remained on baseline characteristics it was not feasible to match on, namely, ethnicity (95.2% white, 2.4% Asian in CPRD Aurum apixaban versus 82.6% white, 14.4% Asian in ARISTOTLE) and concomitant medications (amiodarone 3.8%, aspirin 5.8%, digoxin 13.9% in CPRD Aurum apixaban users versus amiodarone 11.1%, aspirin 31.3%, digoxin 32.0% in ARISTOTLE apixaban arm). See S1 Appendix for details on matching feasibility.
Results of propensity score matching.
Before PSM, differences between treatment groups were evident for most baseline variables including age (median age 71 in apixaban versus 78 in warfarin), sex (apixaban 35.6% female versus warfarin 43.6%), and stroke risk factors (see Table 3 ). After PSM, all baseline characteristics were well balanced (maximum standardised difference .031). From 9,120 apixaban users, only 274 (3.0%) were dropped due to unsuccessful matching.
The HR for stroke/SE in the PS matched groups was 0.98 (95% CI 0.82,1.19) ( Fig 3 and Table A3 in S1 Appendix ). This association was consistent with the noninferiority margin (upper limit of the 95% CI less than 1.38) [ 7 ] but did not show superiority as predicted by ARISTOTLE [HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.66,0.95)] ( Fig 3 and Table A2 in S1 Appendix ). The outcome of all-cause mortality also showed noninferiority [Aurum 1.03 (0.93,1.14) versus trial 0.89 (0.80,0.998)] but did not indicate apixaban superiority. Absolute event rates for the primary outcome and components were close to the trial for apixaban—for example [comparing Aurum versus trial], stroke/SE event rate of 1.27%/year versus 1.27%, whereas the warfarin group had a lower event rate compared with ARISTOTLE (stroke/SE event rate of 1.29%/year versus 1.60% and hemorrhagic stroke 0.33%/year versus 0.47%/year) ( Fig 3 ). Mean duration of follow-up in the cohort was 1.8 years in the apixaban arm and 2.2 years in the warfarin arm.
warfarin. Absolute event rates (%/year) and HR (95% CIs) are presented for key effectiveness outcomes in (i) ARISTOTLE, (ii) CPRD Aurum trial-matched cohort, (iii) CPRD Aurum trial-matched with TTR < 0.75, and (iv) CPRD Aurum trial-matched with TTR ≥ 0.75. Dashed line shows noninferiority margin 1.38 for the upper bound of the 95% CI of the HR used in ARISTOTLE for the primary outcome of stroke or SE. For the analysis by TTR, IPTW was applied to the apixaban users targeting the treatment effect in the warfarin users with TTR < 0.75 and TTR ≥ 0.75. CI, confidence interval; CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; HR, hazard ratio; IPTW, inverse probability treatment weighting; SE, systemic embolism; TTR, time in therapeutic range.
TTR was higher in the CPRD cohort than in ARISTOTLE (mean 0.73 versus 0.62, median 0.76 versus 0.66).
Analysis by TTR suggested noninferiority of apixaban versus warfarin in those with TTR < 0.75 [stroke/SE 0.91 (0.73,1.14), all-cause death 0.94 (0.84, 1.06)] ( Fig 3 ). Apixaban was associated with similar hazards for stroke by category of TTR and increased hazards of death compared to warfarin in those with well-controlled warfarin treatment (TTR ≥ 0.75) [stroke/SE 1.05 (0.82, 1.34), all-cause death 1.20 (1.04, 1.37)] ( Fig 3 ).
The proportion of patients meeting the criteria for reduced dose apixaban ( Table 4 ) was similar between the CPRD ARISTOTLE-analogous apixaban, warfarin, and RCT apixaban groups (4.9%, 4.9%, and 4.7%, respectively). When including the additional NICE criteria of creatinine clearance, 5.1% of apixaban users in the ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort had an indication for reduced-dose apixaban, yet a larger proportion (14.3%) were prescribed reduced dose apixaban implying some patients in CPRD Aurum may have been prescribed the wrong dose and/or information on criteria for dose reduction may have been missing from CPRD Aurum.
CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous Apixaban ( = 8,846) | CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous Warfarin ( = 8,846) | ARISTOTLE RCT Apixaban ( = 9,120) | |
---|---|---|---|
Standard 5.0 mg BID dose | 7,580 (85.7%) | N/A | 8,692 (95.3%) |
Reduced 2.5 mg BID dose | 1,266 (14.3%) | N/A | 428 (4.7%) |
Reduced dose indicated per ARISTOTLE criteria | 434 (4.9%) | 436 (4.9%) | 428 (4.7%) |
Reduced dose indicated per NICE criteria | 454 (5.1%) | 459 (5.2%) | NR |
NICE criteria for dose-adjustment included additional criteria of creatinine clearance 15–29 mL/minute.
CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; N/A, not applicable; NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; NR, not reported; RCT, randomised controlled trial.
A futher analysis of the quality of dose-adjustment in patients in CPRD Aurum ( Table 5 ) indicated 10.5% of patients may have been prescribed an incorrect dose of apixaban at the index prescription based on the data contained in their electronic health records (EHRs). The majority of incorrect dose relating to patients being prescribed reduced-dose apixaban despite not meeting the criteria for dose reduction. A large proportion of patients prescribed an incorrect dose had only 1 dose adjustment criteria (59.6% of those with incorrect dose), suggesting some prescribers may have thought a dose reduction was warranted when only 1 criteria was present. Other possible reasons for the incorrect dose-adjustment observed here may be data on the criteria missing from the EHR (i.e., incorrect ascertainment) or consideration of other medical history that made a prescriber adjust the dose.
Dose Status Against NICE Criteria For Dose-adjustment at Index Date | CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous Apixaban ( = 8,846) |
---|---|
Patients on correct dose | 7,921 (89.5%) |
Patients on incorrect dose | 925 (10.5%) |
Standard 5.0 mg BID dose despite meeting criteria for dose reduction | 59 (0.7%) |
Reduced 2.5mg BID dose despite not meeting criteria for dose reduction | 866 (9.8%) |
0 dose adjustment criteria recorded in EHR | 313 (3.5%) |
1 dose adjustment criteria recorded in EHR | 553 (6.3%) |
Age >80 years | 389 (4.4%) |
Body weight ≤60 kg | 57 (0.6%) |
Serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dL | 107 (1.2%) |
To assess the impact of the quality of dose-adjustment in the CPRD cohort on the effectiveness of apixaban, a supplementary post hoc analysis was performed looking at the results in the subset of apixaban patients prescribed the correct dose ( N = 7,921) compared with IPTW rebalanced warfarin comparators. The results in this subset were consistent with the primary results showing apixaban to be noninferior to warfarin (stroke/SE 0.96 [0.78,1.17], death 0.97 [0.87,1.09]) with the results moving slightly closer to those observed in ARISTOTLE.
The analysis for safety outcomes is presented in Fig 4 and Table A5 in S1 Appendix ; patients on apixaban had a lower risk of major bleeding compared with those on warfarin, HR (95% CI) 0.88 (0.77,1.00), consistent with ARISTOTLE. Analysis by TTR suggested superiority of apixaban for major bleeding in those with TTR <0.75 [0.74 (0.63, 0.86)], whereas apixaban users had a similar risk of major bleeding compared with those with optimal warfarin control (TTR ≥ 0.75) [1.08 (0.90,1.30)].
warfarin. Absolute event rates (%/year) and HR (95% CIs) are presented for key safety outcomes in (i) ARISTOTLE, (ii) CPRD Aurum trial-matched cohort, (iii) CPRD Aurum trial-matched with TTR < 0.75, and (iv) CPRD Aurum trial-matched with TTR ≥ 0.75. For the analysis by TTR, IPTW was applied to the apixaban users targeting the treatment effect in the warfarin users with TTR <0.75 and TTR ≥0.75. CI, confidence interval; CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; HR, hazard ratio; IPTW, inverse probability treatment weighting; TTR, time in therapeutic range.
Table A7 in S1 Appendix shows the proportion of patients switching treatment. A higher proportion of patients on warfarin switched to an alternative OAC during follow-up compared with those on apixaban (16.3% versus 6.1%).
Comparing patients who switched treatment during follow-up with those that continued on index treatment (Table A8 in S1 Appendix ) suggests possible selection bias due to attrition in on-treatment analyses with median TTR markedly lower in warfarin users who switched treatments compared with persistent warfarin users (median TTR 0.64 versus 0.78). On-treatment analyses would likely be biased against apixaban since patients doing badly on warfarin (i.e., with low TTR) who would be more likely to experience events in the warfarin arm would be censored at treatment switch.
On-treatment analyses censoring around treatment switch or discontinuation are presented for the effectiveness analyses in the appendix (Table A6 in S1 Appendix ); the results show evidence of the expected attrition bias against apixaban when compared with the ITT results in Fig 2 , for example, HR for stroke/SE is 1.04 (0.86, 1.25) in the on-treatment compared with 0.98 (95% CI 0.82, 1.19) in the ITT analysis.
Repeating the analysis with start of study period shifted forwards a year to investigate the impact of inclusion of early adopters yielded similar results to the primary analysis (Table A9 in S1 Appendix ).
Prior INR control was not included in the PS models for the VKA-experienced due to a high rate of missing prior INR data (missing for 34% in the apixaban arm). A post hoc sensitivity analysis including a prior INR control variable in the PSM gave results consistent with the primary results [stroke/SE HR 95% CI 1.02 (0.86,1.21)]. Details of this post hoc analysis are in S1 Appendix .
In our emulation of ARISTOTLE using UK routinely collected healthcare data, we found results that met our predefined criteria for comparability with the trial. We saw noninferiority of apixaban versus warfarin for prevention of stroke or SE, all-cause mortality, and major bleeding but did not see superiority of apixaban versus warfarin for these outcomes as was seen in ARISTOTLE. We found higher TTR in the patients using warfarin in our cohort compared with the warfarin arm of ARISTOTLE (median 0.76 versus 0.66). While our analysis by TTR showed noninferiority of apixaban versus warfarin for our stroke or SE outcome, we observed an increased risk of death on apixaban compared with patients well-controlled on warfarin (TTR ≥ 0.75) but not when compared with those on poorly controlled warfarin (TTR < 0.75). For major bleeding, while apixaban was superior when compared to those on poorly controlled warfarin, there was no difference when compared to those on well-controlled warfarin. We saw evidence suggesting suboptimal dosing of apixaban in our cohort with approximately 10% of patients in the apixaban arm prescribed the reduced dose without meeting the criteria for the reduced dose.
We found the differences in the overall treatment-effect estimates between our cohort and ARISTOTLE may be explained by the lower proportion of Asian patients in our cohort, differences in INR control in the warfarin arm of our cohort compared with ARISTOTLE, and the higher proportion of patients prescribed a reduced dose of apixaban in our cohort compared with ARISTOTLE.
Our findings are consistent with a UK study of ischemic stroke, which compared DOACs with warfarin [ 29 ]. A Danish study found similar results to ours for stroke/SE [ 30 ], although they found apixaban users had a lower risk of death; a study of US claims data [ 31 ] also found apixaban was associated with a lower risk of death. A systematic review and meta-analysis of 16 studies [ 32 ] found pooled results for stroke and intracranial haemorrhage that were consistent with ours. One study (in US claims data) also aimed to replicate ARISTOTLE [ 33 , 34 ] and, in contrast to our study, found superiority for apixaban for stroke/SE, which may be linked to population differences such as lower TTR in US patients on warfarin [ 35 ] and differences in ethnicity. None of these studies matched to the ARISTOTLE trial participants, included prevalent users, or looked at how warfarin control impacted results. Further details on these studies including design and key results are summarised in Table A10 in S1 Appendix .
A key strength of our study was the use of a framework that sampled prevalent users (the continuing users of warfarin in this study) in a way that avoided selection bias facilitating the construction of a cohort of patients similar to the target trial population, which included both new users of apixaban and warfarin (VKA-naïve) and patients with prior VKA exposure (VKA-experienced) that were randomised to stay on warfarin or switch to apixaban. The use of PSM, stratified by treatment history, enabled us to select a matched cohort well balanced on important covariates. The successful emulation of ARISTOTLE by our study shows that valid treatment effects can be obtained for important outcomes with OACs using noninterventional methods with routinely collected clinical data. Having validated this framework, in future studies, we can look at the effectiveness of OACs in AF patient groups not included or underrepresented in the RCT, such as elderly patients and those at increased bleeding risk. We also recommend future analyses with an extended follow-up period compared with this study to compare the long-term outcomes seen in the noninterventional cohort with projected long-term outcomes from the RCT.
An additional strength of our study was the ability to explore the quality of warfarin treatment in our cohort and the impact of INR control on the treatment effect estimates. Our finding that the benefits of apixaban versus warfarin for some outcomes depended on the quality of INR control in the warfarin arm answers questions raised in the NICE premeeting briefing, which looked at apixaban in the NVAF population and noted the TTR seen in ARISTOTLE “may be lower than what is typical in UK clinical practice” and “apixaban compared with well-controlled warfarin (TTR 75% or more) may not be superior in the long term” [ 8 ]. ARISTOTLE presented outcomes by centre (for example, hospital) TTR quartile and did not show a signal of treatment efficacy differing by centre TTR quartile. We were able to use IPTW to estimate the treatment effect in the different warfarin TTR groups and used predicted TTR for warfarin users missing TTR to attempt to limite the risk of selection bias.
While our study aimed to emulate ARISTOTLE using suitable methods, there were several limitations. Some of the criteria assessed for ARISTOTLE eligibility may not be well recorded in CPRD leading to a risk of misclassification. Furthermore, misclassification of ARISTOTLE eligibility criteria and baseline covariates could be differential by treatment in the VKA-experienced patients if criteria such as renal function are more likely to be checked before changing treatment. However, the most important risk factors for the primary outcome of stroke (the components of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc stroke risk score) are mostly well recorded in CPRD Aurum and HES.
Our cohort did not attempt to match the trial on the use of concomitant medications in order for our cohort to reflect typical UK prescribing. In ARISTOTLE, 31% of participants were using aspirin and 11% using amiodarone at baseline, whereas in our cohort, only 6% were recorded as using aspirin and 4% amiodarone. Amiodarone potentiates the effects of warfarin, and concomitant use of amiodarone with DOACs is associated with increased risk of major bleeding [ 36 ], while concomitant use of aspirin increases the risk of bleeding for both warfarin [ 37 ] and DOACs [ 38 ]. The difference in concomitant medication usage between our cohort and the trial population may explain some of the observed differences in treatment effects.
A key limitation of our study was the inability to match ARISOTLE on ethnicity, meaning the CPRD Aurum cohort included a low number of patients from Asian and Hispanic groups when compared with the RCT (14.5% of participants in ARISTOTLE were Asian compared to 2.4% in our ARISTOTLE-analogous CPRD cohort). There are known racial differences in the treatment effects of OACs with Asian patients experiencing a higher risk of haemorrhagic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage compared with white patients; in ARISTOTLE, Asian participants experienced double the risk of stroke or SE when on warfarin therapy when compared with white participants [ 39 ]. The reasons for the increased risk of bleeding associated with warfarin therapy in Asian patients is hypothesised to be associated with differences in drug metabolism and prevelance of cerebral microbleeds [ 40 ]. The difference in proportion of Asian patients between our cohort and ARISTOTLE is therefore likely to explain some of the differences in treatment effects seen and limits the generalisability of our study, with the results of our study of most relevanance to white patients. This limitation on ethnicity arose from the data source used and time period studied (patients with AF in CPRD Aurum 2013–2019), which had a low proportion of Asian patients, likely due to AF being associated with older age combined with a lower prevalence of AF in Asian patients compared with white patients [ 41 ]. While CPRD Aurum is largely representative of the UK population in relation to ethnicity [ 42 ], diversity is still limited for older individuals. Despite this, CPRD Aurum has shown to be a useful resource for investigating treatment effects in different ethnic groups for indications such as hypertension, which is more prevalent and occurs at a younger age in ethnic minority groups, with similar trial replication methods used to compare antihypertensive treatment effects in underrepresented ethnic groups [ 13 ].
The approach our study used for handling missing data on baseline covariates relied on assumptions on the relationship between missingness, treatment, and outcomes, which may not be valid; however, the low proportion of missing data means that this is unlikely to have impacted the results. In the coarsened exact matching step, the choice of variables will have an impact on the resulting cohort selected, meaning a different combination of variables could lead to different results. There is a risk that residual confounding may be present despite the use of PSM. The use of PSM also has the potential to introduce bias by dropping patients from the cohort [ 19 ]; however, PSM is well suited to the process of trial emulation including prevalent users, and a low number of apixaban users were dropped due to unsuccessful matching. The inclusion of prevalent users of warfarin in the cohort risks the introduction of selection bias [ 20 , 21 ]; this was avoided by use of a method shown to produce unbiased estimates in a simulation study [ 21 ]. We found consistent results between our new and prevalent user strata across multiple outcomes providing reassurance the method used was likely to have successfully avoided selection bias.
Apixaban along with other DOACs were rapidly adopted as preferred first-line OAC in AF during the study period; it was therefore not possible to match on calendar date leading to a difference in follow-up time between the treatment arms in our cohort. A higher proportion of warfarin users switched to alternative OAC during follow-up compared with those prescribed apixaban (16% versus 6%). The impact of this differential switching during follow-up was addressed in the sensitivity analyses. The availability of new alternative treatments during the study period also means there is a risk of channelling bias in that over time the patients still on warfarin are more likely to be those doing well on warfarin. INR control prior to the index date was not included in the PS for the prevalent users due to a high rate of missing data; however, other variables associated with poor INR control were included in the models, and an exploratory post hoc analysis including a variable for poor INR control gave results consistent with the primary results.
Adherence to treatment was difficult to assess in our study due to automatic repeat prescriptions; treatment persistence was more useful in providing a measure of pattern of medicine use over time. In the analysis by TTR, the adherence of patients using apixaban was not accounted for; however, a previous UK study showed apixaban had higher adherence than VKAs [ 43 ], meaning we would expect to see better effectiveness outcomes in apixaban. Futhermore, the use of IPTW in the analysis by TTR means predictors of poor adherence are likely to have been balanced between treatments. The analysis of TTR is limited by this being a post-baseline measure available for only 1 treatment arm leading to a risk of selection bias in this analysis—patients with TTR available in the study may be more healthy than those without this measure given that patients have to survive and not be hospitalised to have INR measurements available in CPRD Aurum. The limitation of use of a post-baseline measurement available for 1 treatment arm was also evident in the RCTs of DOACs versus warfarin and is mitigated in our study through the use of IPTW and predicted TTR for patients that were missing TTR (using a model to predict TTR that used INR measurements restricted to the first year of follow-up). Given the risk of selection bias in the analysis by TTR and risk of misclassification of TTR for those missing TTR, these results should be considered exploratory and interpreted with caution. Sensitivity analyses in our cohort using an on-treatment censoring scheme showed evidence of attrition bias. The regular measurement of INR and availability of alternative anticoagulants makes warfarin therapy particularly prone to attrition bias since a patient may be more likely to switch to a DOAC if their INR is frequently out of the optimal range or if they have not been adhering to scheduled INR testing.
To conclude, we found that applying a reference trial emulation approach allowed us to emulate a landmark randomised trial of apixaban versus warfarin using UK noninterventional data, with results meeting prespecified benchmarking criteria based on the reference trial results. This trial emulation method provides valid treatment effect estimates for apixaban compared to warfarin and can be used to determine risks and benefits of AF medications in people treated in routine clinical care. This study demonstrates a successful real-world application of novel methods that have been proposed for the inclusion of prevalent users in observational studies, with the application of an adaptation to mimic the screening process making the method suitable for emulation of RCTs that include prevalent users. These methods could be adapted for emulation of RCTs in other therapeutic areas and for looking at patient groups underrepresented or excluded from RCTs.
The weaker overall treatment benefit observed in our cohort appears to be due to a higher proportion of patients with well-controlled warfarin in the UK clinical context, compared with the trial. Our exploratory analysis by TTR showed similar results for stroke and a greater benefit for apixaban for major bleeding compared with TTR <0.75; conversely, a slightly higher risk of death was observed on apixaban compared with well-controlled warfarin.
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not do not necessarily reflect those of the SFDA or its stakeholders. Guaranteeing the accuracy and the validity of the data is a sole responsibility of the research team.
S1 strobe checklist, s1 isac protocol, s1 appendix.
Table A1. ARISTOTLE inclusion and exclusion criteria applied to CPRD Aurum. Table A2. Efficacy outcomes results from ARISTOTLE. Table A3. Effectiveness outcomes results in the CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort. Table A4. Bleeding outcomes and net clinical outcomes results from ARISTOTLE RCT. Table A5. Bleeding outcomes and net clinical outcomes results in the CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort. Table A6. Effectiveness outcomes results in the CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort using the on-treatment censoring scheme. Table A7. Treatment status of apixaban and warfarin users in CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort during 2.5 years of follow-up. Table A8. Characteristics of apixaban and warfarin users in CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort by treatment persistence during 2.5 years of follow-up. Table A9. Effectiveness outcomes results in the CPRD Aurum ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort using later study start date (1 January 2014). Table A10. Summary of noninterventional studies comparing apixaban and warfarin in AF patients.
AF | atrial fibrillation |
CPRD | Clinical Practice Research Datalink |
DOAC | direct oral anticoagulant |
EHR | electronic health record |
HES | Hospital Episodes Statistics |
HR | hazard ratio |
INR | international normalised ratio |
IPTW | inverse probability treatment weighting |
MI | myocardial infarction |
NICE | National Institute for Health and Care Excellence |
OAC | oral anticoagulant |
ONS | Office of National Statistics |
PS | propensity score |
PSM | propensity score matching |
RCT | randomised controlled trial |
SE | systemic embolism |
TIA | transient ischaemic attack |
TTR | time in therapeutic range |
VKA | vitamin K antagonist |
This work was supported by the Medical Research Council (grant number MR/N013638/1 to EMP). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
19 Sep 2023
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COMMENTS FROM THE ACADEMIC EDITOR
To be able to use routine clinical data from an unselected population in a way that methodologically correctly simulates a randomized trial is very important and useful whenever a new treatment is introduced through industry-sponsored trials only. Actually, even when the trial is performed independently, the issue of a selected population still remains, and results from such an analysis in routinely collected data will still be very worthwhile regarding generalizability.
This paper therefore has a double message that is worthwhile from both respects: the clinical message that in fact warfarin is not inferior to apixaban if the warfarin treatment is good; and the scientific message that it would be good to perform such studies whenever new treatments are being studied.
Having said that, there is maybe one limitation that is not addressed in detail, which is the issue of residual confounding. Even properly performed propensity scores cannot take away unmeasured confounding. The fact that a strong effect is found for death (HR 0.84) for the subjects with TTR in the low range suggests in my opinion that some confounding may still be present, as low TTR is generally associated with worse health and more comorbidity. Also the fact that the effect estimates flip so clearly from below to above one suggests this phenomenon. But even if residual confounding would still be present, I don’t think that would interfere with the conclusion.
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Perhaps, ‘Comparative analysis of routinely collected data against results from a randomised controlled trial of oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: A validation study of non-interventional methodology’ or similar?
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Page 4 – ‘…attack (TIA)/SE…’ please define ‘SE’ here for the reader.
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COMMENTS FROM THE REVIEWERS:
Reviewer #1: 1. Thank your your hard work. It's well-written and well-cited report. However, I am not convinced that these analyses add anything new. The subanalysis of "special" groups e.g. patients with cancer, obesity etc. may be more interesting as data are limited.
2. There are known racial differences in the treatment effect of OACs. In your study, 95.7% of patients were White, but in the Aristotle 14.4% of patients were Asians. My concern is the generalizability of the study; and it is worth to discuss as a study limitation.
3. Do you have the data on Apixaban doses? Were they well-adjusted. It is also worth mentioning the higher number of patients with CKD (comparing to the Aristotle), which may affect dosing.
Reviewer #2: Alex McConnachie, Statistical Review
The paper by Powell and colleagues uses CPRD data to perform propensity score matched analyses designed to replicate the ARISTOTLE trial of apixaban vs. warfarin for the treatment of AF. This review looks at their use of statistics.
This is an expertly designed and delivered analysis. The construction of the study cohort is very cleverly done, using various steps to ensure comparability, first to the ARISTOTLE population (where possible) and then between exposed and unexposed individuals. The analysis methods themselves are all good. The Cox models use robust standard errors to account for the matched design, and are appropriately checked for proportional hazards. Sensitivity analyses are an on-treatment analysis and an analysis using a later start date.
Subgroup analyses are done by TTR. Is this just for the patients who switched from warfarin to apixaban, with TTR relating to the period prior to the index date? I note that TTR is not included in Table 2. Also, TTR does not appear to be included in Table 1, as one of the covariates used in the PS matching procedure - should it be? If channelling is a risk, then surely patients with worse TTR might be more likely to be switched to apixaban?
Another possibility is that the subgroup analysis is performed in relation to the TTR of the warfarin users after the index date. After multiple reads of the paper, I believe this may be what was done. Is it appropriate to stratify by a post-baseline characteristic?
For any subgroup analysis I would normally ask to see an interaction test p-value, but that may not be appropriate here (or necessary, given the magnitude of the difference in treatment effect estimates).
The wording of the main conclusion in the abstract did not seem to match the results on first reading. Yes, the results showed non-inferiority, as did ARISTOTLE, but clearly not superiority, which ARISTOTLE did. To say the results are comparable therefore seems incongruous. To describe the treatment effect observed as "weaker" doesn't seem to fit. Looking at the effect estimates and CIs, I would describe the results as showing no treatment effect in the full population. The observation that this is a combination of a treatment effect benefit in the TTR<0.75 group and a treatment harm in the TTR>=0.75 group then makes sense.
Finally, and I don't know enough about the theory to be definitive on this, but I have read that propensity score matching can introduce bias rather than remove it. What assurances can the authors give that the way they have implemented PSM is good? Does it come down to the choice of caliper width?
Reviewer #3: Summary
The authors examined the impact of warfarin time in therapeutic range on outcomes using ARISTOTLE-analogous cohort in the UK. The research concepts are intriguing, the study findings appear highly significant, and the study was well-written.
Here are some comments for revision to improve the manuscript:
1. Introduction: It is recommended to provide a more detailed explanation of how the results would remain consistent or similar to RCT results, even when the population that was excluded from or underrepresented in trials is included. In this regard, the 'validation of results against ARISTOTLE' section in the Methods section may need further elaboration for the benefit of readers.
2. Methods: For the definition of a new user of warfarin or a warfarin-naïve apixaban user, is there a required washout period to ensure their non-use of warfarin for a certain duration?
3. Methods: Why was a caliper of 0.2 chosen for use?
4. Results: 354 apixaban patients who had no matches were mentioned, along with 8846 patients who remained after matching. The numbers do not align (9120 - 354 = 8766).
5. Discussion: In an RCT, participants are expected to maintain good adherence to their assigned treatment. However, in this study, I couldn't find a clear operational definition or justification for 'persistent patients' (e.g., checks at every 6-month time point would suffice?), 'discontinuation' (e.g., a definition using the number of days between prescriptions?), and 'switching' (e.g., when a prescription for a switching drug occurred during or certain days after the index treatment's prescription, how should this be considered?). It would be beneficial to provide further elaboration regarding these in both the Methods and Discussion sections.
6. Discussion: Is emulating an RCT in 2014 still relevant for today's real-world patient populations, given the changing preferences of patients and physicians, as well as evolving clinical practices, guidelines, and recommendations?
7. Discussion: Could we explore future analyses with an extended follow-up period stemming from this study, particularly for the purpose of projecting long-term outcomes from an RCT? Are there any other valuable directions or extensions for this study that we should consider?
Any attachments provided with reviews can be seen via the following link:
Submitted filename: Responses_to_review.docx
Thank you very much for re-submitting your manuscript "Comparison of oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: a cohort study in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink with emulation of a reference trial (ARISTOTLE)" (PMEDICINE-D-23-02702R2) for review by PLOS Medicine.
I have discussed the paper with my colleagues and it was also seen again by the academic editor and the statistical reviewer. I am pleased to say that provided the remaining editorial and production issues are dealt with we are planning to accept the paper for publication in the journal.
The remaining issues that need to be addressed are listed at the end of this email. Any accompanying reviewer attachments can be seen via the link below. Please take these into account before resubmitting your manuscript:
In revising the manuscript for further consideration here, please ensure you address the specific points made by each reviewer and the editors. In your rebuttal letter you should indicate your response to the reviewers' and editors' comments and the changes you have made in the manuscript. Please submit a clean version of the paper as the main article file. A version with changes marked must also be uploaded as a marked up manuscript file.
Please also check the guidelines for revised papers at http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/s/revising-your-manuscript for any that apply to your paper. If you haven't already, we ask that you provide a short, non-technical Author Summary of your research to make findings accessible to a wide audience that includes both scientists and non-scientists. The Author Summary should immediately follow the Abstract in your revised manuscript. This text is subject to editorial change and should be distinct from the scientific abstract.
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If you have any questions in the meantime, please contact me or the journal staff on gro.solp@enicidemsolp .
We look forward to receiving the revised manuscript by Mar 15 2024 11:59PM.
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Requests from Editors:
Thank you for your detailed and considered responses to previous editor and reviewer comments. Please see below for further comments which we require that you address prior to publication.
Suggest emphasizing more clearly the fact that this is target trial emulation study. Perhaps,
“Comparison of oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum: A reference trial (ARISTOTLE) emulation study”.
Abstract Background:
We appreciate the inclusion of additional detail which is very helpful to ascertain the aim of your study. For the purpose of brevity suggest removing lines 25-27 from the abstract and restricting to the introduction of main manuscript. Suggesting including a final sentence in the 1st paragraph of ‘Background’ to read as follows:
‘Reference trial emulation allows evidence to be generated around treatment effects in groups excluded or underrepresented in the original trials.’
Abstract Methods & Findings:
Line 37 – suggest revising ‘warfarin CPRD users’ to ‘warfarin users in the CPRD Aurum’.
Abstract Conclusions:
Do these data tell us anything about the usefulness of this methodological approach to investigate treatment effects for other conditions?
Line 65 – suggest, ‘This study used routinely collected health data from the UK to…’
Lines 69-70 – suggest, ‘…help to understand how transferrable RCT results are to ‘real-world’ practices and whether this methodological approach can help to improve treatment options and outcomes for patient groups currently underrepresented in clinical trials.’ Or similar.
Line 75 – suggest, ‘UK primary care data’.
Line 81 – sentence beginning ‘This may be explained…’ suggest removing and (after paraphrasing) suggest placing as part of the final bullet point of the ‘What do these findings mean?’ sub-section as a limitation.
Lines 88 and 90 – suggest swapping these 2 bullet points around such that the ‘benefits’ of the methodological approach are listed sequentially.
Line 93 – suggest removing the word ‘these’ as this methodology could be applied to various treatment strategies for a number of different conditions – this would be worth emphasizing as it is a major selling point of your study, at least in my opinion! Might also be worth giving an example and making a clear distinction between those that are excluded from clinical trials (those with multimorbidity, for example) and those who are underrepresented (certain ethnic minority groups, for example).
Line 96 – please revise the final point in line with previous comments (see line 81).
INTRODUCTION
As noted above, the methodological approach is a really big selling point which deserves emphasis but not only for anticoag. in AF, also for a variety of treatments and differing conditions.
As above, might be worth differentiating & defining the excluded and underrepresented groups so that readers can make tangible associations, which should increase the impact of your take-home message.
Line 140 – would ‘influenced by’ be more accurate than ‘dependent upon’?
TABLES and FIGURES
Table 3 – for the purpose of formatting requirements, please include a leading zero for all numerical values in the standardized difference column, for example, row 3 should read ‘0.008’. If not for the purpose of transparent reporting, please clearly explain the reasons why not.
Some parts of your discussion read very well and others are less nuanced and focused. Suggest revising for improved nuance and clarity. The strengths and limitations of your findings in context of your chosen methodological approach, which we think has clear strengths and transferability as well as some limitations, could be more clearly presented in parts.
Please remove all sub-headings such that the discussion reads as continuous prose.
Lines 528-530 – when referring to ‘prevalent users’ do you mean users of warfarin, apixaban or both. Please amend for clarity.
Line 568 onwards – you discuss here the implications of ethnicity on your results compared to ARISTOTLE. For further clarity, could you elaborate on the reasons why such a difference was observed. Was this a consequence of the database or an effect of PSM? Considering that this (methodological) approach could help in ascertaining treatment effects in those who are underrepresented in trials (such as ethnic minority groups), what implications might this finding have on the usefulness of either the dataset or the methodological approach more broadly?
Please ensure that abbreviations are defined throughout the supporting information, including tables and figures as relevant.
Thank you for including the published protocol. Apologies for the confusion at the time of our previous request we were asking for the original protocol document (i.e., as used for your study approval process or data access process) not the BMJ published protocol article, this does not need to be included, the reference will suffice. Please amend.
SOCIAL MEDIA
To help us extend the reach of your research, please detail any X (formerly Twitter) handles you wish to be included when we tweet this paper (including your own, your coauthors’, your institution, funder, or lab) in the manuscript submission form when you re-submit the manuscript.
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Comments from Reviewers:
I thank the authors for their consideration of my original comments. I am happy with their responses, and have no further comments to make.
28 Mar 2024
Submitted filename: Responses_to_review_15Mar2024.docx
23 May 2024
Thank you very much for re-submitting your manuscript "Comparison of oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum: A reference trial (ARISTOTLE) emulation study" (PMEDICINE-D-23-02702R3) for review by PLOS Medicine.
As discussed via email please re-submit your manuscript once the required revisions to the analyses are complete.
We look forward to receiving the revised manuscript by 6th June but if you require more time then please let me know.
Kind regards
Philippa Dodd, MBBS MRCP PhD
30 May 2024
Submitted filename: Responses_to_review_30May2024.docx
12 Jun 2024
Dear Dr Powell,
On behalf of my colleagues and the Academic Editor, Professor Suzanne Cannegieter, I am pleased to inform you that we have agreed to publish your manuscript "Comparison of oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum: A reference trial (ARISTOTLE) emulation study" (PMEDICINE-D-23-02702R4) in PLOS Medicine.
Before your manuscript can be formally accepted you will need to complete some formatting changes, which you will receive in a follow up email. Please be aware that it may take several days for you to receive this email; during this time no action is required by you. Once you have received these formatting requests, please note that your manuscript will not be scheduled for publication until you have made the required changes.
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Thank you again for submitting to PLOS Medicine. We look forward to publishing your paper.
Pippa
Senior Editor
As the offshore wind (OSW) industry develops in the U.S. Atlantic, effective monitoring is needed to detect potential effects to wildlife. A Specialist Committee was convened by New York’s Offshore Wind Environmental Technical Working Group (E-TWG) and chaired by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service with the goal of advancing recommendations for the effective detection and characterization of changes in the distributions and habitat use of marine birds in relation to OSW energy development.
The committee’s recommendations are specifically focused on:
While there are various potential effects from OSW development on marine birds, and all deserve dedicated research recommendations, understanding displacement-related effects is a key research priority. The deliberative process used to develop these recommendations brought together experts to reach consensus on the best available science to conduct studies of marine birds at OSW facilities. This Specialist Committee firmly recommends that:
The guidance includes:
Guidance Document Summary
Guidance Document
Contents Part I. Summary S.1 General Recommendations S.2 Detailed Recommendations for Observational Surveys S.3 Future Directions Part II. Introduction 1.0 Background and Purpose 1.1 Terminology 2.0 Rationale 3.0 Focus of Guidance Part III. General Study Design Recommendations 4.0 Key Research Questions 4.1 Key Research Questions to Examine Displacement, Attraction, and Avoidance 4.2 Using Site-Specific Data to Inform Regional-Scale Questions 5.0 Identifying Focal Taxa 5.1 Understanding Exposure 5.2 Understanding Sensitivity and Uncertainty 5.3. Additional Considerations for Selection of Focal Taxa 6.0 Choosing Appropriate Methodologies 6.1 Selecting Study Methods 6.2 Considerations for Specific Methods 6.3 Summary: Choosing Appropriate Methods 7.0 Developing an Effective Study Design 7.1 Study Objectives 7.2 Study Design 7.3 Data Sharing and Coordination 8.0 Data Consistency and Transparency Recommendations Part IV. Recommendations for Boat-based and Aerial Surveys 9.0 Connection Between Site Assessment Surveys and Pre-Construction Surveys to Detect Effects 10.0 Survey Design and Methodology Recommendations 10.1 Define Clear Study Goals 10.2 Use of Gradient Study Design 10.3 Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Coverage 10.4 Data Collection Methods 10.5 Review of Data 10.6 Data Analysis 10.7 Data Reporting Part V. Recommendations for Future Guidance and Research 11.0 Next Steps for Guidance 12.0 Additional Guidance, Frameworks, and Research Needs Part VI. Literature Cited Part VII. Appendices Appendix A. Guidance Development Methods Appendix B. Glossary of Key Terminology Appendix C. Literature Review: Macro- to Meso-Scale Changes in Marine Bird Distributions and Habitat Use Appendix D. Assessment Rubric for Study Plans
IMAGES
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An abstract concisely explains all the key points of an academic text such as a thesis, dissertation or journal article. It should summarize the whole text, not just introduce it. An abstract is a type of summary, but summaries are also written elsewhere in academic writing. For example, you might summarize a source in a paper, in a literature ...
A summary can be applied to various forms of content, be it a book, an article, or a film. The goal is to reduce the length while retaining the core message. On the other hand, an abstract is more standardized, particularly in its structure. Given its association with research, it maintains a consistent format across different studies and fields.
A1: In the context of a journal article, thesis etc., the abstract should provide a brief summary of each of the main parts of the article: Introduction, Methods, Results and Discussion.In the words of Houghton (1975), "An abstract can be defined as a summary of the information in a document". The Conclusions (in some cases also called a Summary) chapter is a summary of the main ideas that ...
An abstract is a condensed overview of a paper that usually includes the purpose of the paper/research study, the basic design of the study, the major findings, and a brief summary of your interpretations of the conclusions. Abstracts are usually used in social science or scientific papers, and are generally 300 words or less. What is a Summary?
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However, a research summary and abstract are two very different things with individual purpose. To start with, a research summary is written at the end while the abstract comes at the beginning of a research paper. A research summary captures the essence of the paper at the end of your document. It focuses on your topic, methods, and findings.
Definition and Purpose of Abstracts An abstract is a short summary of your (published or unpublished) research paper, usually about a paragraph (c. 6-7 sentences, 150-250 words) long. A well-written abstract serves multiple purposes: an abstract lets readers get the gist or essence of your paper or article quickly, in order to decide whether to….
Step 2: Methods. Next, indicate the research methods that you used to answer your question. This part should be a straightforward description of what you did in one or two sentences. It is usually written in the past simple tense, as it refers to completed actions.
A well-written abstract gives your readers the opportunity to quickly and accurately identify the basic content and key themes of the source. You will see an abstract at the beginning of many scholarly journal articles, on the back of books, on DVDs of feature films, and other places where the reader needs a brief, but thorough snapshot of a ...
Main Difference - Abstract vs Summary. Though the two terms abstract and summary are often used interchangeably, there is a distinct difference between abstract and summary. A summary is a condensed version of a longer work. An abstract is a brief summary that is found at the beginning of a research article, thesis, etc.
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An Abstract summarizes the contents of a research article to help the reader, typically a researcher in the same field, quickly grasp the purpose of the text. Meanwhile, a lay summary summarizes the contents of a research article for non-specialist audiences or members of funding body panels (researchers, but from different fields).
It helps readers determine whether to read the entire study. To the degree that an abstract differs from other summaries, it generally differs in emphasis. An abstract prioritizes the research question, thesis, and major findings of a work. When writing an abstract, your focus should be on the essential content of what you are summarizing.
An abstract summarizes, usually in one paragraph of 300 words or less, the major aspects of the entire paper in a prescribed sequence that includes: 1) the overall purpose of the study and the research problem(s) you investigated; 2) the basic design of the study; 3) major findings or trends found as a result of your analysis; and, 4) a brief summary of your interpretations and conclusions.
Overview. An abstract is a short summary of your completed research. It is intended to describe your work without going into great detail. Abstracts should be self-contained and concise, explaining your work as briefly and clearly as possible. Different disciplines call for slightly different approaches to abstracts, as will be illustrated by ...
An abstract concisely explains all the key points of an academic text such as a thesis, dissertation or journal article. It should summarise the whole text, not just introduce it. An abstract is a type of summary, but summaries are also written elsewhere in academic writing. For example, you might summarise a source in a paper, in a literature ...
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An abstract is a brief summary of a research article, thesis, review, conference proceeding, or any in-depth analysis of a particular subject and is often used to help the reader quickly ascertain the paper's purpose. [1] When used, an abstract always appears at the beginning of a manuscript or typescript, acting as the point-of-entry for any given academic paper or patent application.
An abstract is a short section of text that reflects the contents of a large article or report. Abstracts are mostly written specifically for research papers. The objective of an abstract is to give an overview of the paper's content. It should persuade the reader to read the entire paper. Most abstracts are structured abstracts because of ...
One of the primary differences between abstracts and executive summaries lies in their length and content. Abstracts are usually shorter, ranging from 100 to 300 words, depending on the document's length. They focus on summarizing the main points, methodology, and results of the document, providing a glimpse into the overall structure and findings.
Abstract. An abstract is a crisp, short, powerful, and self-contained summary of a research manuscript used to help the reader swiftly determine the paper's purpose. Although the abstract is the first paragraph of the manuscript it should be written last when all the other sections have been addressed. Research is formalized curiosity.
Executive summaries are used mainly when a research study has been developed for an organizational partner, funding entity, or other external group that participated in the research. In such cases, the research report and executive summary are often written for policy makers outside of academe, while abstracts are written for the academic ...
A lay summary, or impact statement, is a very efficient way of conveying the essence of your article briefly and clearly. Fundamentally, what you're aiming to produce is a short paragraph outlining the article content, aimed at non-specialists in the field and written in a way that they can easily understand. This element differentiates it ...
In the last sentence of the Abstract Methods and Findings section, please describe the main limitation(s) of the study's methodology. AUTHOR SUMMARY. At this stage, we ask that you include a short, non-technical Author Summary of your research to make findings accessible to a wide audience that includes both scientists and non-scientists.
1 Introduction. In the rapidly evolving field of scientific artificial intelligence, and specifically as applied to materials science, approaches have explored a variety of scales, material types, and use cases, [1-8] integrating visual and linguistic data for advanced understanding and interaction has become an area of great interest. Applications include analysis of images, text or data mining.
As the offshore wind (OSW) industry develops in the U.S. Atlantic, effective monitoring is needed to detect potential effects to wildlife. A Specialist Committee was convened by New York's Offshore Wind Environmental Technical Working Group (E-TWG) and chaired by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service with the goal of advancing recommendations for the effective detection and characterization of ...