violent crime thesis statement

Crime Control Strategies: Writing a Thesis Statement

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4. How Do I Write a Thesis Statement?

     A thesis is the central idea of a piece of writing with the entire work developing and supporting the idea.  Though sometimes unstated, a thesis should always govern a paper.  It usually appears as a thesis statement somewhere in the paper, primarily in the opening paragraph.

     For help on writing a strong thesis statement for your CRIM 315 Research Writing Assignment, study the handout entitled "Thesis Statements: A Brief Guide" linked in the box at the right.  For additional help, view the tutorial on this page entitled "Creating a Thesis" and study the Thesis Statements Research Guide.  Here you will find a Thesis Statement Checklist, a description of some characteristics of a strong thesis statement, and links to useful websites.

     Finally, if needed, don't hesitate to contact or visit the Writers' Room , located in Room 1102 of the Education Center.  Appointments with a Writing Consultant may be made by calling 812-461-5359.

     The thesis statement should be submitted on Blackboard no later than the stated deadline (see Course Syllabus).  This portion of the RWA is worth 15 points.

Handout: Thesis Statements - A Brief Guide

• Thesis Statements: A Brief Guide

Tutorial: Creating a Thesis

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Digital Commons @ USF > College of Behavioral and Community Sciences > Criminology > Theses and Dissertations

Criminology Theses and Dissertations

Theses/dissertations from 2024 2024.

Sociocultural Factors, Definitions, and Experiences of Intimate Partner Violence Among Latina and Hispanic Women , Vanessa Centelles

Theses/Dissertations from 2023 2023

Efficacy of Online Social Movements for Sparking Change: The Case of the Missing Murdered and Indigenous Women Movement (#MMIW) , Kacy A. Bleeker

An Examination of Racial Disparities in Arrest Across Florida Counties, 1998-2018: A Test of the Racial Threat and Political Representation Hypotheses , Xavier D. Burch

The Invisible Victims of Commercial Sexual Exploitation: Boys and Their Barriers to Access to Services , Amanda L. Connella

Damned & Damned: Examining Vexatious Litigation and the Vexatious Litigant Statute in Florida Courts , Sarah L. Harper

The Contributions of Mental Health Issues, Traumatic Brain Injury, and Adverse Childhood Experiences to Recidivism Among Rural Jail Incarcerees , Lauren N. Miley

Employing Individuals with a Criminal Record: How Prior Experience and Belief in Redeemability Impact Hiring Decisions , Kiera O'Connor

Assessing the Relationship Between True Crime Documentary and Podcast Consumption, Fear of Crime, and Protective Behaviors , Lauren A. Tremblay

Police Officers’ Perceptions of Gunshot Detection Technology , Courtney L. Weber

Theses/Dissertations from 2022 2022

A Macro Social Examination of the Relationship Between Disabilities and Crime Using Neighborhood and County Level Data , Natasha A. Baloch

Integrating Psychopathy into Prominent Developmental/Life-Course Theories , Eva M. Fontaine

Racial Differences in Perceptions of Sanction Severity , Sarah L. Franklin

Juvenile Homicide Offenders: A Life-Course Perspective , Norair Khachatryan

Testing the Protest Paradigm and Racial Threat: Analyzing Articles of BLM Protests in 2014 and 2020 , Rebecca Angela Ruiz

Exploring the Effectiveness of a Life-Skills Program in a Florida Prison Through a Social Bond and General Strain Theory Perspective , Danielle M. Thomas

Theses/Dissertations from 2021 2021

Clean Water for All: Examining Safe Drinking Water Act Violations of Water Systems and Community Characteristics , Junghwan Bae

Morality and Offender Decision-Making: Testing the Empirical Relationship and Examining Methodological Implications , Jacquelyn Burckley

The Ring of Gyges 2.0: How Anonymity Providing Behaviors Affect Willingness to Participate in Online Deviance , Cassandra E. Dodge

A Macro Analysis of Illegal Hunting and Fishing Across Texas Counties: Using an Economic Structural Approach , Leo J. Genco Jr.

Self-Protection in Cyberspace: Assessing the Processual Relationship Between Thoughtfully Reflective Decision Making, Protection Motivation Theory, Cyber Hygiene, and Victimization , C. Jordan Howell

Racial Threat Theory: A Test of the Economic Threat Hypothesis , Carl L. Reeds

Online Perceptions of Panamanian Prisons and Incarcerated persons: An analysis of YouTube user comments , Mahaleth J. Sotelo

Theses/Dissertations from 2020 2020

Toxic Colonialism and Green Victimization of Native Americans: An Examination of the Genocidal Impacts of Uranium Mining , Averi R. Fegadel

Cross-National Incarceration Rates as Behavior of Law , Christopher J. Marier

The Effects of Perceived Motivations and Mental Distress on the Likelihood of Reporting and Engaging in Self-Protective Measures Among Victims of Stalking , Daniela Oramas Mora

Mental Health and In-Prison Experiences: Examining Socioeconomic and Sex Differences in the Effect of Mental Illness on Institutional Misconduct and Disciplinary Segregation , Rachel E. Severson

Theses/Dissertations from 2019 2019

Dating Application Facilitated Victimization: An Examination of Lifestyle-Routine Activities, Self-Control, and Self-Efficacy , Vanessa Centelles

Social Constructionism and Cultivation Theory in Development of the Juvenile “Super-Predator” , Elizabeth R. Jackson-Cruz

Bystander Intervention, Victimization, and Routine Activities Theory: An Examination of Feminist Routine Activities Theory in Cyber Space , Jennifer A. Leili

Sexual Assault and Robbery Disclosure: An Examination of Black’s Theory of the Behavior of Law , Caitlyn N. Muniz

Mass Shootings and Gun Sales: A Study on the Influence of Red and Blue Power , Maria Jose Rozo Osuna

A Multi-dimensional Macrolevel Study of Drug Enforcement Strategies, Heroin Prices, and Heroin Consumption Rates , Alexander G. Toth

Theses/Dissertations from 2018 2018

The Impact of a Religious/Spiritual Turning Point on Desistance: A Lifecourse Assessment of Racial/Ethnic Differences , Rhissa Briones Robinson

Political Decisions on Police Expenditures: Examining the Potential Relationship Between Political Structure, Police Expenditures and the Volume of Crime Across US States , Xavier D. Burch

Identifying the Personal and Perceived Organizational Characteristics Associated with Job Satisfaction Among Juvenile Probation Staff , Julie M. Krupa

The Role of Organizational Justice in Predicting Attitudes Toward Body-Worn Cameras in Police Officers , Nathaniel L. Lawshe

Yet Another Ferguson Effect: An Exploratory Content Analysis of News Stories on Police Brutality and Deadly Force Before and After the Killing of Michael Brown , Carl Root

The Role of Race/Ethnicity and Risk Assessment on Juvenile Case Outcomes , Tayler N. Shreve

Theses/Dissertations from 2017 2017

Intimate Partner Violence and the Capacity and Desire for Self-Control , Krista Taralynne Brewer

School Shootings in the United States from 1997 to 2012: A Content Analysis of Media Coverage , Victoria N. Iannuzzi

Chronic Runaway Youth: A Gender-Based Analysis , Michelle N. Jeanis

A Test of Wikström’s Situational Action Theory Using Self-Report Data on Intimate Partner Violence , Lauren Nicole Miley

An Exploratory Study of Macro-Social Correlates of Online Property Crime , Hyojong Song

Female Incarceration and Prison Social Order: An Examination of Gender Differences in Prison Misconduct and In-Prison Punishments , Elisa L. Toman

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Their Role as Mitigators for Youthful and Non-Youthful Offenders in Capital Sentencing Cases , Jessica R. Trapassi

Theses/Dissertations from 2016 2016

Disinhibition, Violence Exposure, and Delinquency: A Test of How Self-Control Affects the Impact of Exposure to Violence , Wyatt Brown

The Guilty But Mentally Ill Verdict: Assessing the Impact of Informing Jurors of Verdict Consequences , Erin Elizabeth Cotrone

The Relationship between Psychopathic Personality Traits and Lying , Jason A. Dobrow

Delving into the Heart of Victimization Risk: Examining the Interactive Relationship between Demographic Factors and Context , Amy Sheena Eggers

A Power Conflict Approach to Animal Cruelty: Examining How Economic Power Influences the Creation of Animal Cruelty Laws , Leonard J. Genco

The Role of Gender in Self-Control and Intimate Partner Violence , Laura Marie Gulledge

The Restrictive Deterrent Effect of Warning Banners in a Compromised Computer System , Christian Jordan-Michael Howell

Tactics of Sexual Control and Negative Health Outcomes , Anna Elizabeth Kleppe

The Applicability of Criminology to Terrorism Studies: An Exploratory Study of ISIS Supporters in the United States , Amanda Marie Sharp Parker

The Path to Violent Behavior: The Harmful Aftermath of Childhood Trauma , Nicholas Michael Perez

The Effects of Racial Bias on Perceptions of Intimate Partner Violence Scenarios , Batya Yisraela Rubenstein

Theses/Dissertations from 2015 2015

Reel or Reality? The Portrayal of Prostitution in Major Motion Pictures , Raleigh Blasdell

Psychopathy and Perception of Vulnerability , Barbara Joyce Dinkins

Effect of Empathy on Death Penalty Support in Relation to the Racial Divide and Gender Gap , Brian Godcharles

Exploring the Interactive Effects of Social Learning Theory and Psychopathy on Serious Juvenile Delinquency , Brandy Barenna Henderson

Tampa Electric Company's Big Bend Utility Plant in Hillsborough County, Florida: A Case Study , Lynne M. Hodalski-Champagne

Thirty Year Follow-Up of Juvenile Homicide Offenders , Norair Khachatryan

Organized Crime in Insurance Fraud: An Empirical Analysis of Staged Automobile Accident Rings , Chris Longino

The Role of Social Support in the Disclosure and Recovery Process of Rape Victims , Jessica Nicole Mitchell

Evaluating the Social Control of Banking Crimes: An Examination of Anti-Money Laundering Deficiencies and Industry Success , Erin M. Mulligan

Elite Deviance, Organized Crime, and Homicide: A Cross-National Quantitative Analysis , Carol L.s. Trent

An Evaluation of the Utah First District Mental Health Court: Gauging the Efficacy of Diverting Offenders Suffering With Serious Mental Illness , Stephen Guy VanGeem

Rape, Race, and Capital Punishment in North Carolina: A Qualitative Approach to Examining an Enduring Cultural Legacy , Douglas Wholl

Theses/Dissertations from 2014 2014

The Tattoo: A Mark of Subversion, Deviance, or Mainstream Self-Expression? , Jocelyn Camacho

Juvenile and Adult Involvement in Double Parricide and Familicide in the U.S.: An Empirical Analysis of 20 Years of Data , Averi Rebekah Fegadel

Predicting Successful Drug Court Graduation: Exploring Demographic and Psychosocial Factors among Medication-Assisted Drug Court Treatment Clients , Autumn Michelle Frei

Experimentally Evaluating Statistical Patterns of Offending Typology For Burglary: A Replication Study , Lance Edwin Gilmore

Developmental Trajectories of Physical Aggression and Nonaggressive Rule-Breaking among At-risk Males and Females during Late Childhood and Early Adolescence , Eugena Givens

Predicting Fear of Crime using a Multilevel and Multi-Model Approach: A Study in Hillsborough County , Jonathan Maskaly

Public Knowledge and Sentiments about Elite Deviance , Cedric Michel

The Influence of Community Context on Social Control: A Multi-Level Examination of the Relationship between Race/Ethnicity, Drug Offending, and Juvenile Court Outcomes , Jennifer Peck

Theses/Dissertations from 2013 2013

Assessing the Relationship Between Hotspots of Lead and Hotspots of Crime , Kimberly L. Barrett

A Life-Course Approach to Sexual Offending: Examining the Continuity of Juvenile Sexual Offending into Adulthood and Subsequent Patterns of Recidivism , Maude Beaudry-Cyr

Examining the link between self-control and misconduct in a multi-agency sample of police supervisors: A test of two theories , Christopher Matthew Donner

The Impact of Hyperfemininity on Explicit and Implicit Blame Assignment and Police Reporting of Alcohol Facilitated Rape in a Sample of College Women , Sarah Ehlke

Rurality and Intimate Partner Homicide: Exploring the Relationship between Place, Social Structure, and Femicide in North Carolina , Amelia Kirkland

Self-Control, Attitudinal Beliefs, and White-Collar Crime Intentions , Melissa Anne Lugo

Zero Tolerance for Marginal Populations: Examining Neoliberal Social Controls in American Schools , Brian Gregory Sellers

State-Corporate Crime in the Democratic Republic of Congo , Veronica Jane Winters

Theses/Dissertations from 2012 2012

The Walls Are Closing In: Comparing Property Crime Victimization Risk In Gated And Non-Gated Communities , Nicholas Branic

What Propels Sexual Homicide Offenders? Testing an Integrated Theory of Social Learning and Routine Activities Theories , Heng Choon Chan

A Deadly Way of Doing Business: A Case Study of Corporate Crime in the Coal Mining Industry , Charles Nickolas Stickeler

Deconstructing the "Power and Control Motive": Developing and Assessing the Measurability of Internal Power , Shelly Marie Wagers

Theses/Dissertations from 2011 2011

Assessing racial differences in offending trajectories: A life-course view of the race-crime relationship , Michael S. Caudy

Mental Health Courts Effectiveness in Reducing Recidivism and Improving Clinical Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis , Brittany Cross

General Strain Theory and Juvenile Delinquency: A Cross-Cultural Study , Wen-Hsu Lin

General Strain Theory, Race, and Delinquency , Jennifer Peck

Developmental Trajectories of Self-Control: Assessing the Stability Hypothesis , James Vance Ray

Explaining the "Female Victim Effect" in Capital Sentencing Decisions: A Case for Sex-Specific Models of Capital Sentencing Research , Tara N. Richards

A Multilevel Model of Police Corruption: Anomie, Decoupling, and Moral Disengagement , Ruth Zschoche

Theses/Dissertations from 2010 2010

The Emotional Guardianship of Foreign-Born and Native-Born Hispanic Youth and Its Effect on Violent Victimization , Amy Sheena Eggers

The Influence of Narcissism and Self-Control on Reactive Aggression , Melissa L. Harrison

Is There an "Innocent Female Victim" Effect in Capital Punishment Sentencing? , Amelia Lane Kirkland

An Analysis of the Influence of Sampling Methods on Estimation of Drug Use Prevalence and Patterns Among Arrestees in the United States: Implications for Research and Policy , Janine Kremling

A Pathway to Child Sex Trafficking in Prostitution: The Impact of Strain and Risk-Inflating Responses , Joan A. Reid

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Criminology and Criminal Justice Dissertations Collection

http://hdl.handle.net/2047/D20233343

Affording a meaningful opportunity of release: legal representation of juvenile lifers.

Assessing deterrence in the FBI's Safe Streets gang initiative: a social network approach.

Autistic and at-risk: the public and personal safety of children with autism spectrum disorders.

Background justice: the political context of adolescent legal socialization.

Bureaucracy and law: a study of Chinese criminal courts and social media.

Clearances, cameras, and community violence: police outcomes in an organizational and community context.

College students and the illicit use of prescription drugs: a test of general strain theory.

A comparison of the individual-, county-, and state-level correlates of homicide and mass murder

A comprehensive framework for understanding the contextual, structural, and cultural predictors of police officers' perceptions of organizational justice

Contextualizing the political economy of juvenile court decision-making

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• Research & Reports

Myths and Realities: Understanding Recent Trends in Violent Crime

The recent rise in crime is extraordinarily complex. Policymakers and the public should not jump to conclusions or expect easy answers.

• Accurate Crime Data

Click here for the latest FBI crime statistics >>

After years of decline, crime rose during the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly violent crime. Using available but incomplete data, this analysis seeks to set out a clear and accurate summary of what is known so far about recent trends in crime and violence.

While researchers have begun to identify some of the factors that may have contributed to this upward trend, it is far too soon to say with certainty why crime rose after 2019. This uncertainty itself should guide our understanding of crime trends today. It underscores the danger of jumping to conclusions — such as blaming specific, often newly implemented, policies or reforms. Last, the analysis points to promising new solutions that may address some of the factors behind recent crime trends.

At the outset, it’s important to note that this analysis focuses on the most serious offenses known to law enforcement. Other visible social problems, such as homelessness, and less serious offenses, such as shoplifting, also affect perceptions of public safety and may be the subject of future analyses.

What Happened in 2020–2022

Amid a series of interlocking crises, violent crime and some types of property crime rose across the country in 2020 in communities of all types. Data from the FBI and other sources suggests that those trends slowed in 2021. And although national data is not yet available for 2022, the information we do have indicates that murders declined.

Crime in 2020

Crime rates changed dramatically across the United States in 2020. Most significantly, the murder rate — that is, the number of murders per 100,000 people — rose sharply, by nearly 30 percent. Assaults increased as well, with the rate of offenses rising by more than 10 percent. Both increases are connected to a broader surge in gun violence. More than 75 percent of murders in 2020 were committed with a firearm, reaching a new high. Cities that report data on shooting incidents, such as New York, saw significant increases in this form of violence as well.

Murders rose in cities nationwide and in jurisdictions of all types. Relative to 2019, the number of murders jumped by more than 30 percent in the largest cities and by 20 percent in places designated by the FBI as “suburban” — cities with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants that are within a Metropolitan Statistical Area. Murders rose by comparable levels  in rural areas  too — an important fact that is only now beginning to receive press attention.

Despite politicized claims that this rise was the result of criminal justice reform in liberal-leaning jurisdictions, murders rose  roughly equally  in cities run by Republicans and cities run by Democrats. So-called red states actually saw some of the highest murder rates of all. This data makes it difficult to pin recent trends on local policy shifts and reveals the central flaw in arguments that seek to politicize a problem as complex as crime. Instead, the evidence points to broad national causes driving rising crime.

We can draw a few additional conclusions about trends in violent crime in 2020. For one, poor and historically disadvantaged communities bore the brunt of the rise in violence in 2020. In just one example, according to the New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice, the  number of shootings  doubled in the neighborhood of East New York (from 51 to 102) and nearly tripled in Brownsville (from 34 to 96). Both Brooklyn communities have been hot spots of violence for  more than a quarter century . These increases continue a deeper and much more troubling trend that predates 2020 — what sociologist Patrick Sharkey calls  “the rigid geography of violence,” in which crime remains relatively concentrated even as absolute levels decline.

Violence also remained concentrated among young people. Around 40 percent of people arrested for murder in 2020 were aged between 20 and 29, matching historical trends. Murder victims were more widely distributed in terms of age, with around 30 percent in their 20s and another 30 percent over the age of 40. Unfortunately, FBI data is too spotty to allow us to draw conclusions about the circumstances leading up to a murder. In nearly half of all cases — a marked increase over recent years,  according to the Council on Criminal Justice  — the circumstances surrounding a killing were “undetermined.” Finally, violence may also have become concentrated in another way.  One study  indicates that with violence rising and fewer people outside during the height of the pandemic in 2020, the risk of experiencing a violent crime on the street (measured in crimes per hour spent in public) climbed dramatically, even while the actual number of crimes committed dropped — potentially contributing to a perception of lawlessness not apparent from the raw numbers.

Importantly, though, not all types of crime rose in 2020. In fact, trends in violent and property crime diverged sharply from each other (as illustrated in the table above), with the national rate of property crimes reaching a record  low  in 2020. While this is uncommon, it is not unprecedented; a similar dynamic unfolded  between 2015 and 2016 , though on a much less dramatic scale. There are many possible explanations for why property and violent crime trends decoupled in 2020. Lockdown orders, for example, may have significantly reduced opportunities for larceny or made people less likely to report crimes to police (though a  government survey  focusing on reports of criminal victimization suggests the latter explanation is unlikely).

The increase in motor vehicle thefts is also notable, and not just because it is the only property offense that rose in 2020. For one, motor vehicle theft tends to have a  relatively high  rate of reporting compared to other property offenses, suggesting that it may be a more accurate barometer of property offenses than, for example, larceny. Additionally, motor vehicle theft has also been linked to more serious crimes,  like murder , making its increase a cause for concern.

Crime in 2021: Dealing with Uncertainty in National Data

In early October 2022, the FBI  released  its long-awaited compilation of 2021 crime data. But this data differed sharply in content and quality from previous years due to a  transition  in the way the government collects crime data. Specifically, 2021 was the first year to rely exclusively on a recently updated system for tracking crime data, the National Incident-Based Reporting System. Many agencies were not able to transition to the new format in time. As a result, the bureau received full-year reports from agencies covering just half of the country’s population. By comparison, earlier reports included a full year of data from agencies covering roughly 95 percent of the population.

To fill these gaps, the FBI’s  report on national crime trends  relied heavily on estimates. The agency estimated crime trends for 2021 based on the data it had available. Then it went back to 2020 and applied that same estimating methodology as if that year’s data had been similarly incomplete. In doing so, the bureau aimed to create an appropriate “apples to apples” comparison, despite the differences in data quality. The FBI also used upper- and lower-bound estimates given the uncertainty about the agency’s conclusions, estimates we represent as a rough margin of error.

Ultimately, the FBI’s best estimates suggest that murders rose by roughly 4 percent in 2021, while all violent crime declined very slightly. Independent research partially corroborates those findings. For example, one  report , published by the Council on Criminal Justice and focusing on major-city police departments, also showed that murder rates in a select group of cities with available data continued to increase in 2021, although  at a much slower rate  than in the previous year. But the same report suggests violent crime also  rose  slightly, contrary to the FBI’s findings.

Unfortunately, this uncertainty is likely to persist. Reliable government data on crime trends in 2021 may  never be available  for some states and even many large cities. Data quality will likely improve for 2022, but it’s too soon to know for sure.

Crime in 2022: Early Indicators

FBI data covering all of 2022 is not yet available, so it is too soon to speak with confidence about national crime trends for that year. But research by Jeff Asher, an analyst who studies crime trends, and  another report  by the Council on Criminal Justice, point to two positive developments:  murders  and  gun violence  appear to have dropped in many cities. Even though the analyses are derived from data covering a limited number of cities, any decline in gun violence is welcome news after two years of increases.

However, the Council on Criminal Justice report notes that in many cities, robberies increased in 2022, alongside a dramatic rise in motor vehicle thefts. A  similar trend  unfolded in New York City, where a  roughly 10 percent decline  in murder accompanied a rise in other offenses,  including robberies and burglaries .

Researchers should closely track this apparent divergence. One possible explanation is that the rise in crimes like robbery — which are  more likely than murders to be committed by a stranger  — may have coincided with a return to pre-pandemic conditions as more people left their homes more often. The data does indeed show an uptick in foot traffic and commerce relative to 2021. Daily ridership on New York City’s subways, for example, did not consistently exceed 60 percent of pre-pandemic trends  until spring 2022 . But it remains to be seen whether this is mere correlation or a reflection of something deeper.

Placing Current Trends into Historical Context  

These increases in crime rates are serious on their own terms and should not be trivialized. Nationally, however, they do not return us to the high crime rates of the early 1990s. From 1991 to 2014, the national murder rate plummeted by more than 50 percent, from 9.8 to 4.4 killings per 100,000 people. By comparison, the murder rate for 2020 stood at around 6.5 — a rate last seen in the late 1990s but still well below the high point of the last quarter century. The rate of violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2020 has been relatively flat, comparable to the rate last seen a decade prior in 2010.

This historical context and the steep increase in murders relative to other violent crimes are both important for understanding the problems posed by recent trends in violence, as well as for evaluating potential solutions. But even with violence well below historic highs, members of the public are right to be concerned, and it is incumbent upon policymakers to develop smart, innovative answers to these new public safety challenges.

Myths About Recent Crime Trends

It’s tempting to jump to conclusions or look for a simple diagnosis that explains the increased crime rates in 2020 and 2021. Policymakers should avoid both temptations. In fact, new evidence allows us to reject some popular myths and misconceptions about rising crime and begin to identify effective measures to improve public safety without repeating old mistakes.

The Impact of Bail Reform

Some policymakers and police leaders have been quick to blame rising crime on reforms to pretrial detention laws and practices, arguing that people released from jail under these initiatives were responsible for, or at least contributed to, rising crime. But a growing body of research calls these claims into question.

Broadly, there is no evidence that bail reform drove post-2020 rises in violence. Instead, research comparing public safety trends from before and after bail reforms tends to show no link between these policy changes and increasing crime. According to one recent study , for example, there is “no clear or obvious pattern” in violent crime trends in jurisdictions that have adopted pretrial reforms. Surveying the best available evidence from four jurisdictions — Harris County, Texas; Cook County, Illinois; Philadelphia; and New Jersey — the authors found no indication that rearrest rates rose after reforms went into effect, or at most, any increases were relatively minor (“0.4 to 3.2 percent of all cases charged,” with the vast majority nonviolent). That is not what we would expect to see if bail reform were somehow driving spikes in crime.

The same pattern has unfolded in New York. After passing major bail reform legislation  in 2019 , the legislature revised it just a few months after it went into effect, then again in  2022  and  2023 , each time citing concerns about public safety. The first two revisions expanded the types of cases in which judges are legally permitted to set bail or order detention; the third addressed judicial discretion. But a March 2023 analysis  by the Data Collaborative for Justice — the first study to use statistical techniques to compare similar cases from before and after reform — paints a more complicated picture of bail reform’s impact on crime trends. Notably, the study found that “eliminating bail for select misdemeanor and nonviolent felony charges under New York’s original bail reform law significantly reduced recidivism” in New York City.

Focusing on different “subsets” of cases adds important nuance, though. Recidivism  did  increase after bail reform, the researchers found, in some cases — those where the defendant had a recent violent arrest or open case. ( Another study had previously reached a similar conclusion.) And the legislature’s 2020 amendment may indeed have reduced recidivism. These are important distinctions for policymakers to be aware of. But reviewed holistically, these findings suggest that bail reform did not significantly contribute to rising crime in New York City.

The Role of Progressive Prosecutors

Some critics have asserted that policies adopted by progressive prosecutors and “blue-state” mayors — such as  declining to prosecute  certain nonviolent offenses or  declining to seek pretrial detention  in some cases — contributed to rising crime. But there is no evidence to support these claims. In fact, researchers have  shown  that the election of progressive prosecutors has not caused crime to increase in their cities. In  one working paper , a team of social scientists analyzed crime data from 35 cities where more progressive law enforcement officials entered office, finding no statistically significant change in serious crime rates relative to other jurisdictions. A subsequent analysis by another team of researchers also found  no relationship between progressive prosecutors and rates of robbery, larceny, or homicide.

In some cases, so-called progressive policies may in fact enhance public safety. According to  one recent study  of Suffolk County, Massachusetts, “people who are  not  prosecuted for misdemeanors are much less likely to find themselves in a courtroom again within two years.” That speaks well of  a policy  implemented by former Suffolk County District Attorney Rachael Rollins, under which her office declined to prosecute many ( but not all ) nonviolent misdemeanors, such as disorderly conduct and minor drug possession. Similarly, reducing the use of cash bail may cut down on some of the harmful consequences of pretrial detention, which range from  higher rates of rearrest  to  job loss  stemming from  time out of the community .

Some critics have attempted to assert a different theory: that liberal, reformist, or “progressive” urban governance may itself be to blame for rising crime. But the 2020 rise in murder rates did not vary significantly based on a city’s voting patterns. A  review  by Asher indicated that murders increased in 2020 by approximately 29 percent in cities with a Democratic mayor and 26 percent in cities led by a Republican. Another  recent policy brief  by Third Way, a center-left think tank, points to relatively high rates of violence in “red” states — underscoring the truly national nature of the 2020 crime increase and the lack of a clear relationship with specific policies.

Changes in Policing Practices

Researchers have long studied whether a sudden decrease in police activity can lead to a spike in crime or violence, especially if the pullback is triggered by citizen protests. Some cities did indeed see a drop in arrests in 2020, particularly in the  spring  and  early summer . But attempts to link previous police pullbacks to rising crime have  not withstood   close scrutiny .  Leading   studies  reject a direct link, with some  suggesting  only that, at most, changes in arrest patterns may be just one factor among many others affecting crime trends. Any attempt to link “de-policing” to crime in 2020 would also fail to explain the divergence between trends in violent crime (which rose) and property crime (which did not).

Researchers should continue to study this issue but may also consider other ways that policing interacts with crime trends. For one, murder clearance rates — that is, the proportion of offenses in which police make an arrest — dropped to  historic lows in 2020 , meaning many murders went unsolved. These failures may erode community trust in police and encourage further violence. Additionally, some researchers have pointed to the  corrosive effect  of police violence on relationships between law enforcement and the communities they serve, a dynamic that may undermine the ability of police officers to deter and solve crime. Taken together, these possibilities underscore the importance of rebuilding trust between police officers and communities and ensuring that law enforcement meets the needs of those whose lives and homes are threatened by violence.

Contributing Factors: What We Know So Far

Disproving popular myths about rising crime is one thing. Identifying the factors that  have  driven crime over the last few years is much more difficult. Crime is complicated — and attempting to isolate a single factor to explain crime trends, especially during a once-in-a-century global pandemic, would be a mistake. However, some information has emerged, pointing to factors that may partially explain what happened in 2020 and 2021. Understanding these factors may also inform potential solutions.

The Role of Guns

Gun violence contributed significantly to the post-2020 increase in violence, a trend that has become clear in city and national data. Cities that track shooting incidents, such as New York City, tended to see  sharp increases  in 2020. Gun assaults also rose in major cities  through 2021 . And according to FBI data, approximately 77 percent of murders nationwide in 2020 were committed with a firearm — the  highest share reported  in FBI data going back to 1960.

Legally purchased guns also turned up at crime scenes more quickly in 2020 and 2021. Law enforcement professionals track the flow of guns using a metric called “time-to-crime” — essentially, the time between a gun’s lawful purchase and its recovery from a crime scene. According to a  report  by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), the percentage of guns recovered with a time-to-crime of  under three years  rose dramatically in 2020 and 2021. One-third of gun recoveries in 2021 involved a weapon bought within the previous year, and half involved one purchased in the past three years.

The pandemic may have encouraged more people to purchase and rely on weapons. Indeed,  one study  documented “4.3 million excess firearm purchases nationally from March through July 2020” relative to what the researchers’ model would have predicted based on past data. Some experts caution against drawing a straight line between legal gun buying and firearm deaths. But  research  conducted by the University of Chicago Crime Lab drew on data from police stops to show that firearm  carrying  in Chicago doubled from 2019 to 2020.

Notably, public health research also shows a similar increase in firearm deaths after including deaths by suicide. According to  one study , “all-intent annual firearm fatality rates” reached “a 28-year high in 2021 of 14.7 fatalities per 100,000 persons.” Gun deaths among children have also risen dramatically , surpassing motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of death for people ages 1 to 18. This data offers a complementary, more holistic, and disturbing account of rising national gun violence.

More research is needed to fully understand the role of firearms in violent crime trends. In a January 2022  article , crime analyst Jeff Asher and freelance author and data scientist Rob Arthur argue that finer-grain data from ATF would help establish a direct link between declining time-to-crime and increasing murder rates. In the meantime, increases in weapon purchasing, carrying, and use are troubling trends in a country that is home to  almost half  of the world’s civilian-owned firearms.

Socioeconomic Instability and Disruptions to Community Life

The Covid-19 pandemic led to a severe recession, one categorically different from those of the past. While many white-collar workers were able to shift to remote work, people in the service industry, gig economy, and other sectors faced extended unemployment, making the Covid-19 recession  “the most unequal in U.S. history.”  Those challenges were likely compounded for people with a criminal record, who face a difficult labor market  even in the best of times .

Additionally, people and communities faced challenges in meeting basic needs, especially during the first year of the pandemic. Many endured trauma caused by sickness and death. Families faced disintegration as parents or caregivers succumbed to the disease. The response by policymakers was not immediately adequate, breeding legal cynicism — that is, a belief that the government is illegitimate or unable to provide for its citizens. Community leaders struggled to deliver food and protective equipment to people who could afford neither.

These sudden and unprecedented hardships jeopardized the stability of families and communities alike. Combined with other disruptions caused by lockdowns and social distancing measures, they may have upset the  informal social processes  — such as connections to neighbors, family members, and employers — that some researchers believe help keep neighborhoods safe.

For example, the pandemic forced local nonprofits — which sociologist Patrick Sharkey argues play a  key role in public safety  — to limit their services or repurpose themselves entirely to meet new needs. Among those impacted were community violence intervention programs (CVIs), which identify people likely to become involved in violence and work with them to prevent conflicts before they start. CVIs face funding uncertainty, even in good times. During the pandemic, these challenges increased dramatically.

In March of 2020, for example, Philadelphia  froze $1 million  previously allotted for small grants to 52 antiviolence organizations. Even where programs did not lose funding, social distancing made their work harder, if not impossible. Many were forced to turn to virtual meetings, which experts who spoke with the authors said may not support the type of direct communication on which their strategies depend. Virtual meetings also require a stable internet connection, which not all participants may have. Moreover, nonprofit organizations across the country were often tasked with combating the pandemic and  expanded their duties  to distributing food, protective equipment, and supplies.

Other community resources were affected too. Many neighborhoods lack adequate physical infrastructure such as sidewalks and green space, which are  linked to  public health and safety. The pandemic accentuated these disparities in access to public space by halting or delaying valuable infrastructure projects.  Closures of community spaces , from schools and summer programs to  public pools  and libraries, also left young people with few options for safe places to spend time outside of home and work. Such “third places” are  a cornerstone of community  and group socialization and can  help build a sense of communal safety . The sudden loss of these spaces could have left people of all ages with fewer places to go, potentially contributing to conflict in and out of the home.

Research shows the pandemic also exacerbated  mental health problems  among millions of Americans, worsening preexisting inequalities in the  delivery of mental health services . Critically, mental illness itself does not predict crime or violence. But serious and untreated mental illness can  combine with other risk factors  and hardships to lead to violence. Relatedly, the trauma and isolation created by the pandemic appear to have contributed to an increase in antisocial behavior at  all levels of society , from  aggressive driving  to  heavy alcohol and drug use .

Precisely identifying the impact of pandemic-era socioeconomic instability on crime will be a difficult (if not impossible) task for future researchers. But the evidence has begun to line up. Qualitatively, accounts of life in places like  Cleveland, Ohio , show how the pandemic frayed community ties. And quantitatively, research shows that areas characterized by  other forms of disadvantage , such as racial and economic segregation, were the most impacted by rising crime in 2020. Gun violence also tends to be extremely concentrated in high-poverty areas, and that dynamic  continued to unfold in 2020  in cities as far afield as Baltimore, Chicago, and Kansas City, Missouri.

These accounts are what we would expect if the pandemic jeopardized the stability of communities that were already struggling to meet important needs. Sadly, these trends mirror an older dynamic: “when violence rose in the United States from the 1960s to the 1990s,”  write Patrick Sharkey and Alisabeth Marsteller, “it was felt most acutely in areas marked by concentrated poverty and racial segregation.” This persistent reality underscores the fragility of American life in far too many of our communities.

Building a New Vision of Public Safety

Leaders at all levels of government must avoid responding to the rise in crime with policies that have been tried in the past and failed, like  unnecessarily punitive sentencing practices . There is scant evidence that these initiatives would succeed. And research has consistently shown that long prison sentences, for example, may  be counterproductive  and that the collateral consequences of incarceration can be  disastrous .

That makes it especially important for policymakers to understand the availability of, and strong support for, alternative strategies for reducing crime and violence in both the short and long term. This section concludes our analysis by reviewing the evidence for some promising solutions. It is not an exhaustive list. Rather, it focuses on two of the serious public safety challenges of our time.

Reduce Gun Violence

The United States’  uniquely destructive  relationship with guns accelerates violence of all types, from gang killings to  school shootings  and racial terrorism against  Black  and  Asian  people, as painfully illustrated by recent events. A decades-long campaign of deregulation has made gun carrying  far more common  while making it  harder to study  — much less interdict or  deter  — the flow of firearms.

Evidence for a connection between weakened gun control laws and violence continues to mount. In a recent review of “hundreds of scientific studies,” the RAND Corporation summarized the state of research on gun violence prevention. On concealed carry, they  found “supportive evidence” that “shall-issue” laws — which require licensing authorities to grant a concealed carry permit  if the applicant satisfies basic criteria  — increase the incidence of firearm homicides and homicides overall. But in a June 2022 decision ,  the Supreme Court  further   undermined  the ability of states to regulate the carrying of guns within their borders,  jeopardizing   public safety  and underscoring the need for local solutions in addition to state and federal regulation.

Despite the new obstacles presented by this ruling, policymakers must look for ways to both stem the illegal trade of guns and limit the legal transfer of guns to people who pose a danger to themselves and others. For example, some states have enacted laws limiting gun purchases to one per month. When implemented in Virginia, the policy  appeared to reduce  gun trafficking out of the state. States could also consider banning the sale of assault weapons to young people or enacting  “red flag” laws , which provide a civil procedure for confiscating dangerous weapons from someone believed to pose a public safety threat.

Local efforts will make a difference, but identifying smart, scalable solutions may prove challenging. Some jurisdictions have pursued gun buyback programs. In New York, for example, prosecutors collaborate with police and  local institutions , including  churches , to trade prepaid gift cards for firearms, no questions asked. Yet these programs only serve as a brake on the millions of guns sold in the United States in any given year. Their effects on gun violence appear to be  minimal  (although they may promote  other community goals ). As a result, they are no substitute for broader, more concerted action.

Policymakers should also consider the promise of community violence intervention initiatives —  programs  that operate at the neighborhood level, are run by people with experience in those communities, and work directly with high-risk individuals to steer them away from violence. These programs have begun to attract attention from policymakers and are being scaled up  across the country , thanks in part to recently available federal funding. But they need sustained support from partners in government — and accessible grant streams — to reach their full potential.

CVIs can take many forms. They work best when tailored to the needs of their communities. Some follow the  Cure Violence  model, in which outreach workers drawn from the community “interrupt” and de-escalate potentially violent encounters. Others focus on providing trauma counseling or economic support.  READI Chicago , for example, addresses the specific needs of Chicago neighborhoods impacted by violence by identifying people at a high risk of violence and offering them paid employment opportunities, support services, and cognitive behavioral therapy.

A growing body of evidence supports this work. New York’s Cure Violence programs, for instance, have  reduced  gun violence injuries in two high-risk neighborhoods. And READI, which works with the people at  greatest risk  of becoming involved in violence,  may have  reduced shooting and homicide arrests — though researchers could not state that conclusion with the preferred degree of statistical confidence and, therefore, recommended caution when interpreting their findings. Follow-up studies may help identify ways to improve the program.

To be sure, CVIs can be  difficult to implement  and even harder to replicate. Leaders in the field emphasize that there is no one-size-fits-all solution. A CVI that successfully reduces violence in one jurisdiction may fail in another for any number of reasons, including a simple mismatch between its programming and the community’s needs. Buy-in from local government and other criminal justice stakeholders is also vital, as is stable long-term funding and professional support for staff. Aside from implementation challenges, this high variability makes CVIs  vulnerable to criticism .

Such criticism should not deter innovation at a time when creative solutions are desperately needed. Thankfully, support for CVIs appears to be growing at  all   levels  of government. Indeed, funding options for CVIs  expanded even further in 2022  — though administrative burdens may preclude some organizations from accessing it. Policymakers should aim to provide  stable rather than one-off funding  so organizations can plan their budgets around it, and make grants more accessible to the small neighborhood-based organizations that need them most. Local governments should also explore how they  can be an effective partner  to CVIs.

Reinvest in Communities and Social Services

Saving lives now must be the priority, but it would be a mistake for policymakers to overlook solutions that address the broader, ongoing social and economic needs of poor communities and communities of color — especially as these are the same communities that bore the brunt of  recent increases in violence  and have  struggled with safety for years . Reinvestment efforts aimed at building healthy, resilient communities may not yield immediate results. But  they are critical  to building safety in the long term.

At the state and national policy levels, social programs designed to cut poverty can be part of this solution, as they have been proven to reduce crime and incarceration. Studies show that Medicaid expansion through the Affordable Care Act, which increased access to health insurance for lower-income people,  reduced arrest rates  as well as  recidivism  among people who had been to prison multiple times. (By contrast, restricting benefits such as disability income appears to have  increased crime and incarceration .) And pandemic-era social policies, like  the Child Tax Credit expansion , have only served to underscore the  harmful   consequences  of poverty and the ability of social spending  to reduce it . Policymakers can build on this strong foundation of research — and may, in the process, help undo some of the  socioeconomic damage done by mass incarceration .

Addressing the deep structural problems that make some communities more susceptible to violence is a generational project. No one solution will roll back decades of disinvestment. However, some initiatives may be undertaken now to start the process. For example, summer youth employment programs (SYEPs) have  been shown  to  reduce crime , whether by providing much-needed income or creating structure and mentorship for youth during their time away from school. Generally funded by city governments in partnership with local businesses, SYEPs provide young people with paid jobs in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors.

Versions of these programs can be found in  at least 27  of the 30 largest cities. However, SYEPs rarely serve all those who could benefit from them. The programs have also faced difficulties during the pandemic. In Boston, for example, a limited number of available jobs were offered through a lottery;  only 28 percent  of the over 4,200 young people looking to secure a position did so.

Increased funding for these and similar programs should be a part of any elected official’s agenda. Some cities have already taken steps to shore up local SYEPs. New York City  announced  earlier this year that it was expanding the city’s program from 75,000 to 90,000 participants. SYEPs can provide young people jobs, structure, and financial support in difficult times while building safer communities.

Lastly, research also shows that affordable health care, particularly mental health care, reduces  the likelihood  that people will enter the criminal justice system. It also reduces recidivism. Recent studies have found that access to treatment for substance abuse and mental health issues appears to  decrease  the rates of both violent and property crimes. Of course, treatment services — and especially mental health care — must also be affordable to be effective. Cost barriers  may be part of the reason  for the persistent gap between mental health needs and care. The problem is especially acute for people returning to their communities from incarceration, as they are likely to leave prison with at least one chronic health  condition . These inequities must be addressed, at a minimum through programs and policies that link people leaving prison with health care benefits.

While we don’t yet have a complete understanding of recent crime trends, we can state two things with confidence. First, recent crime increases do not fit conveniently into any political narrative. Second, it is vital that we look for creative solutions to national problems. Rising crime presents a challenge to communities across the country of all sizes and types. Now more than ever, policymakers must resist the temptation to oversimplify the many factors that shape public safety and instead prioritize solutions that build an enduring and holistic form of public safety.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Lauren-Brooke Eisen and Ram Subramanian for their strategic guidance of the report as well as their careful revisions and insightful comments, Gabriella Sanchez for her editorial assistance, Maris Mapolski for her detailed review and suggestions, Michael Waldman and John Kowal for their support for this policy analysis and thoughtful feedback, Cameron Kimble and Antara Nader for their extensive research and analytical support, and Stephanie Wylie for her policy and drafting support. Finally, the authors would like to thank Thomas Abt, Jeff Asher, Aubrey Fox, Adam Gelb, Dr. Josephine Hahn, Anna Harvey, Olive Lu, Peter Miller, John Pfaff, Michael Rempel, Richard Rosenfeld, Eric Ruben, Jules Verdone, Alex Vitale, and several other experts who spoke with the authors on background for sharing their expertise.

Related Resources

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What the data says about crime in the U.S.

A growing share of Americans say reducing crime should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults (58%) hold that view today, up from 47% at the beginning of Joe Biden’s presidency in 2021.

We conducted this analysis to learn more about U.S. crime patterns and how those patterns have changed over time.

The analysis relies on statistics published by the FBI, which we accessed through the Crime Data Explorer , and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), which we accessed through the  National Crime Victimization Survey data analysis tool .

To measure public attitudes about crime in the U.S., we relied on survey data from Pew Research Center and Gallup.

Additional details about each data source, including survey methodologies, are available by following the links in the text of this analysis.

With the issue likely to come up in this year’s presidential election, here’s what we know about crime in the United States, based on the latest available data from the federal government and other sources.

How much crime is there in the U.S.?

It’s difficult to say for certain. The  two primary sources of government crime statistics  – the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) – paint an incomplete picture.

The FBI publishes  annual data  on crimes that have been reported to law enforcement, but not crimes that haven’t been reported. Historically, the FBI has also only published statistics about a handful of specific violent and property crimes, but not many other types of crime, such as drug crime. And while the FBI’s data is based on information from thousands of federal, state, county, city and other police departments, not all law enforcement agencies participate every year. In 2022, the most recent full year with available statistics, the FBI received data from 83% of participating agencies .

BJS, for its part, tracks crime by fielding a  large annual survey of Americans ages 12 and older and asking them whether they were the victim of certain types of crime in the past six months. One advantage of this approach is that it captures both reported and unreported crimes. But the BJS survey has limitations of its own. Like the FBI, it focuses mainly on a handful of violent and property crimes. And since the BJS data is based on after-the-fact interviews with crime victims, it cannot provide information about one especially high-profile type of offense: murder.

All those caveats aside, looking at the FBI and BJS statistics side-by-side  does  give researchers a good picture of U.S. violent and property crime rates and how they have changed over time. In addition, the FBI is transitioning to a new data collection system – known as the National Incident-Based Reporting System – that eventually will provide national information on a much larger set of crimes , as well as details such as the time and place they occur and the types of weapons involved, if applicable.

Which kinds of crime are most and least common?

Property crime in the U.S. is much more common than violent crime. In 2022, the FBI reported a total of 1,954.4 property crimes per 100,000 people, compared with 380.7 violent crimes per 100,000 people.  

By far the most common form of property crime in 2022 was larceny/theft, followed by motor vehicle theft and burglary. Among violent crimes, aggravated assault was the most common offense, followed by robbery, rape, and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter.

BJS tracks a slightly different set of offenses from the FBI, but it finds the same overall patterns, with theft the most common form of property crime in 2022 and assault the most common form of violent crime.

How have crime rates in the U.S. changed over time?

Both the FBI and BJS data show dramatic declines in U.S. violent and property crime rates since the early 1990s, when crime spiked across much of the nation.

Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%) and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter (-34%). It’s not possible to calculate the change in the rape rate during this period because the FBI  revised its definition of the offense in 2013 .

The FBI data also shows a 59% reduction in the U.S. property crime rate between 1993 and 2022, with big declines in the rates of burglary (-75%), larceny/theft (-54%) and motor vehicle theft (-53%).

Using the BJS statistics, the declines in the violent and property crime rates are even steeper than those captured in the FBI data. Per BJS, the U.S. violent and property crime rates each fell 71% between 1993 and 2022.

While crime rates have fallen sharply over the long term, the decline hasn’t always been steady. There have been notable increases in certain kinds of crime in some years, including recently.

In 2020, for example, the U.S. murder rate saw its largest single-year increase on record – and by 2022, it remained considerably higher than before the coronavirus pandemic. Preliminary data for 2023, however, suggests that the murder rate fell substantially last year .

How do Americans perceive crime in their country?

Americans tend to believe crime is up, even when official data shows it is down.

In 23 of 27 Gallup surveys conducted since 1993 , at least 60% of U.S. adults have said there is more crime nationally than there was the year before, despite the downward trend in crime rates during most of that period.

While perceptions of rising crime at the national level are common, fewer Americans believe crime is up in their own communities. In every Gallup crime survey since the 1990s, Americans have been much less likely to say crime is up in their area than to say the same about crime nationally.

Public attitudes about crime differ widely by Americans’ party affiliation, race and ethnicity, and other factors . For example, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are much more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to say reducing crime should be a top priority for the president and Congress this year (68% vs. 47%), according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

How does crime in the U.S. differ by demographic characteristics?

Some groups of Americans are more likely than others to be victims of crime. In the  2022 BJS survey , for example, younger people and those with lower incomes were far more likely to report being the victim of a violent crime than older and higher-income people.

There were no major differences in violent crime victimization rates between male and female respondents or between those who identified as White, Black or Hispanic. But the victimization rate among Asian Americans (a category that includes Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders) was substantially lower than among other racial and ethnic groups.

The same BJS survey asks victims about the demographic characteristics of the offenders in the incidents they experienced.

In 2022, those who are male, younger people and those who are Black accounted for considerably larger shares of perceived offenders in violent incidents than their respective shares of the U.S. population. Men, for instance, accounted for 79% of perceived offenders in violent incidents, compared with 49% of the nation’s 12-and-older population that year. Black Americans accounted for 25% of perceived offenders in violent incidents, about twice their share of the 12-and-older population (12%).

As with all surveys, however, there are several potential sources of error, including the possibility that crime victims’ perceptions about offenders are incorrect.

How does crime in the U.S. differ geographically?

There are big geographic differences in violent and property crime rates.

For example, in 2022, there were more than 700 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in New Mexico and Alaska. That compares with fewer than 200 per 100,000 people in Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire and Maine, according to the FBI.

The FBI notes that various factors might influence an area’s crime rate, including its population density and economic conditions.

What percentage of crimes are reported to police? What percentage are solved?

Most violent and property crimes in the U.S. are not reported to police, and most of the crimes that  are  reported are not solved.

In its annual survey, BJS asks crime victims whether they reported their crime to police. It found that in 2022, only 41.5% of violent crimes and 31.8% of household property crimes were reported to authorities. BJS notes that there are many reasons why crime might not be reported, including fear of reprisal or of “getting the offender in trouble,” a feeling that police “would not or could not do anything to help,” or a belief that the crime is “a personal issue or too trivial to report.”

Most of the crimes that are reported to police, meanwhile,  are not solved , at least based on an FBI measure known as the clearance rate . That’s the share of cases each year that are closed, or “cleared,” through the arrest, charging and referral of a suspect for prosecution, or due to “exceptional” circumstances such as the death of a suspect or a victim’s refusal to cooperate with a prosecution. In 2022, police nationwide cleared 36.7% of violent crimes that were reported to them and 12.1% of the property crimes that came to their attention.

Which crimes are most likely to be reported to police? Which are most likely to be solved?

Around eight-in-ten motor vehicle thefts (80.9%) were reported to police in 2022, making them by far the most commonly reported property crime tracked by BJS. Household burglaries and trespassing offenses were reported to police at much lower rates (44.9% and 41.2%, respectively), while personal theft/larceny and other types of theft were only reported around a quarter of the time.

Among violent crimes – excluding homicide, which BJS doesn’t track – robbery was the most likely to be reported to law enforcement in 2022 (64.0%). It was followed by aggravated assault (49.9%), simple assault (36.8%) and rape/sexual assault (21.4%).

The list of crimes  cleared  by police in 2022 looks different from the list of crimes reported. Law enforcement officers were generally much more likely to solve violent crimes than property crimes, according to the FBI.

The most frequently solved violent crime tends to be homicide. Police cleared around half of murders and nonnegligent manslaughters (52.3%) in 2022. The clearance rates were lower for aggravated assault (41.4%), rape (26.1%) and robbery (23.2%).

When it comes to property crime, law enforcement agencies cleared 13.0% of burglaries, 12.4% of larcenies/thefts and 9.3% of motor vehicle thefts in 2022.

Are police solving more or fewer crimes than they used to?

Nationwide clearance rates for both violent and property crime are at their lowest levels since at least 1993, the FBI data shows.

Police cleared a little over a third (36.7%) of the violent crimes that came to their attention in 2022, down from nearly half (48.1%) as recently as 2013. During the same period, there were decreases for each of the four types of violent crime the FBI tracks:

• Police cleared 52.3% of reported murders and nonnegligent homicides in 2022, down from 64.1% in 2013.
• They cleared 41.4% of aggravated assaults, down from 57.7%.
• They cleared 26.1% of rapes, down from 40.6%.
• They cleared 23.2% of robberies, down from 29.4%.

The pattern is less pronounced for property crime. Overall, law enforcement agencies cleared 12.1% of reported property crimes in 2022, down from 19.7% in 2013. The clearance rate for burglary didn’t change much, but it fell for larceny/theft (to 12.4% in 2022 from 22.4% in 2013) and motor vehicle theft (to 9.3% from 14.2%).

Note: This is an update of a post originally published on Nov. 20, 2020.

• Criminal Justice

John Gramlich is an associate director at Pew Research Center .

Fewer than 1% of federal criminal defendants were acquitted in 2022

Before release of video showing tyre nichols’ beating, public views of police conduct had improved modestly, violent crime is a key midterm voting issue, but what does the data say, u.s. public divided over whether people convicted of crimes spend too much or too little time in prison, what we know about the increase in u.s. murders in 2020, most popular.

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Argumentative Essay Writing

Argumentative Essay About Gun Control

Crafting an Unbeatable Argumentative Essay About Gun Control

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Are you in the middle of an argumentative essay about gun control?

If so, you're in luck!

Crafting a compelling argument for or against any topic can seem daunting. The good news is, with some practice and helpful tips, it's easy to create an essay that will engage your readers.

In this blog post, we'll cover different approaches to constructing effective arguments on gun control. Along with that, we will explore some strategies you can use no matter what side of the debate you're taking.

By the end of this blog, you'll feel confident in crafting an argument that is well-supported and powerful.

So let's get started!

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What is an Argumentative Essay?

An argumentative essay is an article written to convince readers of a particular point of view. It typically uses logic and evidence to prove the position taken. 

The goal is to provide sufficient information and analysis so that readers can understand the subject matter.

To do this, you'll need to use reliable sources and consider different points of view.

Purpose of Writing an Argumentative Essay About Gun Control

The purpose of writing an argumentative essay about gun control is to explore the complexities of the issue.

By researching both sides, you can gain a better understanding of the nuances of the debate. This will ultimately lead to a stronger opinion-based argument. 

No matter what position you take, your argument should be based on facts, not emotions.

Paper Due? Why Suffer? That's our Job!

How to Write an Argumentative Essay About Gun Control?

When crafting an argumentative essay about gun control, it's important to consider the following steps: 

Do Your Research

The first step to writing an argumentative essay is to do thorough research on both sides of the gun control debate.

This means researching pro-gun control sources and anti-gun control sources as well.

To ensure you have reliable information, look for articles from credible news outlets and academic journals.

Pick an Appropriate Title

Choosing a title for your essay is an important step as it will help you focus your argument. 

For example, if you are writing in support of gun control, your title could be something like: 

"The Benefits of Gun Control: Why We Need Stricter Regulations."

Make an Outline for Your Argument

Once you've chosen a title, the next step is to outline your argument. An effective argument should have three parts: an introduction, body paragraphs, and a conclusion.

In your introduction, provide some background information on gun control and state your opinion. Here is a sample outline for an argumentative essay about gun control.

Check out this amazing blog on argumentative essay outline to craft perfect outlines.

Here is a thesis statement sample for an argumentative essay about gun control. Check it out to get a better understanding of the topic.

Write a Brief Introduction

Your introduction is the first thing readers will see, so it's important to make a good impression. 

Start off by providing some background information on the issue and giving your opinion on gun control. You should also explain why you think your opinion is valid and how your argument will be structured. 

Write Body Paragraphs With Evidence

The body paragraphs are where you'll provide evidence for your argument. Each paragraph should focus on one point and include evidence to support it. 

For example, a body paragraph could explain the risks associated with owning firearms, such as accidental shootings.

You should also include counterarguments so that your essay is well-rounded.

Conclude Your Essay

Your conclusion should summarize your main points and the evidence you used to support them. You can also use your conclusion to suggest potential solutions or steps forward for the issue. 

Finally, end your essay with a call to action that encourages readers to take action on gun control.

What Are Some Arguments For Gun Control

These are a few popular arguments for gun control in the United States. Check them out to learn more about the topic and its complexity.

1. Gun control can reduce the number of firearms in circulation. It makes it more difficult for dangerous individuals to possess weapons.

2. Research has found that there is a correlation between gun availability and suicide rates. So, fewer guns may lead to fewer suicides.

Check out this informative video!

3. Increased gun control could prevent mass shootings by limiting access to semi-automatic weapons.

4. Gun control laws can help ensure that all firearms owners are properly trained and educated on safety.

5. Gun control could reduce the number of accidental shootings.

Examples Of Argumentative Essays About Gun Control

Gun control is a controversial subject in the United States of America. 

In the wake of so many tragic mass shootings, the conversation tends to pull in two directions: 

Those who believe gun laws should be less strict and those pushing for more restrictions. 

Below are some examples of argumentative essays on gun control.

argumentative essay against gun control

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Persuasive essay about gun control

Persuasive essay examples gun control

Is greater gun control a good idea argumentative essay

Check our extensive blog on argumentative essay examples to ace your next essay!

Argumentative Essay Topics About Gun Control

Here are a few topics about gun control. Check these out to get inspired for your next essay.

• Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun?
• Is the assault weapons ban effective in reducing gun violence? 
• How does mental health play a role in firearm regulations? 
• What are some current laws that support or restrict gun ownership? 
• Are stricter background checks needed for gun purchases? 
• Should more guns be allowed in public places such as schools and churches?
• Is the current system of gun control effective enough to protect citizens? 
• What are the implications of allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons? 
• Is there any evidence that suggests increased gun ownership reduces crime? 
• What can be done to reduce gun deaths and injuries in America?

Check our comprehensive blog on argumentative essay topics to get more topic ideas!

Although gun control is a highly debated topic, there are many ways to approach writing an argumentative essay on the subject.

By utilizing tips and examples discussed in this blog post, you can write a compelling argumentative essay about gun control.

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Is Violent Crime Increasing?

Richard Berk

Violent crime recently has been increasing in the United States. Although data from the Uniform Crime Reports are complete only though 2020, local data that now are available suggest that in many areas of the country, violent crime increases have continued into 2022. There also have been several recent mass shootings, defined by four or more deaths from a single shooting incident. Mass shootings account for a tiny fraction of all homicides but add dramatically to the visibility of gun violence.

Every homicide is a tragedy, but recent crime rates actually are modest compared to some earlier decades. The plot above on the left shows the crime rate for crimes of violence from 1990 to 2020. The blue line is plotted from the actual numbers, while the black line is a smoothed version with small year to year variation averaged away. Clearly, the violent crime rate was nearly twice as high in the 1990s compared to the past several years. Yet, there apparently is an uptick in the data starting about 2014. Is that the canary in a coal mine? The smoothed line does not show any uptick. That will be addressed shortly.

Homicides are a very small proportion of all violent crime, although they account for much of the public’s concerns about violence. Their trends can be masked by the overall trends in crimes of violence. The plot above on the right shows only the UCR homicide rate from 1990 to 2020. The number of crimes per capita is far smaller, but the tends look about the same. The uptick after 2014 looks relatively more dramatic. However, the increase is only about 2 homicides per 100,000 people. And again, the smoothed line shows no uptick.

Taking to raw numbers at face value, recent increases in homicides and violent crime have been attributed to three factors: (1) COVID public health measures such as travel restrictions, school closures, lockdowns, and curfews, (2) COVID sickness and death itself, and (3) less aggressive police practices in response on Black Lives Matter and other organized criticisms of police use of force.   Let’s consider each in turn.

The increases in violent crime in general and homicide in particular began in 2014, well before the events associated with two of the three explanations. COVID-19 began spreading toward the end of 2019 and officially arrived in the United States early in 2020. Shortly after, it became the third leading cause of death for the country as a whole. For Blacks and Hispanics, life expectancy fell by about 3 years. For Whites, it was by about 1.2 years. Various public health measures were introduced beginning in the early spring of 2020. The pandemic and the public health measures that followed no doubt disrupted day-to-day life and increased substantially life’s burdens, especially in disadvantaged neighborhoods. There is good reason to think that existing resentment increased and new resentments were created. Surges in violent crime might follow. But the timing does not work unless one focuses only violent crime increases from the middle of 2020 perhaps through 2022. For most of that interval, UCR data are not yet available and are not included in the two figures.

The timing for explanations building on Black Lives Matter might be a better fit. The social movement first gained visibility around the death of Trayvon Martin and the acquittal of George Zimmerman in 2012 and grew with the deaths of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, Eric Garner in New York City and others. A nearly singular emphasis on the use of force by police was galvanized in 2020 with the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police officer Derek Chavin. Subsequently, the large demonstrations in 2020, coupled with property damage and threats of violence by a few, gradually eroded much popular support.

What might Black Lives Matter have to do with recent increases in violent crime? Perhaps the most plausible speculation begins with a claim that the demonstrations, combined with widely publicized criticisms of police practices, led to less aggressive police tactics. Some moderation in the use of force could result from well-meaning responses to past excesses, while some police officers might simply choose to abstain from any encounters for which they might be later criticized, fired, sued, or criminally charged. Whatever the truth behind such conjectures, one consequence might be to embolden individuals already inclined toward violence; public criticism of the police might be seen as delivering the proverbial get-out-of-jail-free card. The timing of this explanation could fit the facts, but it is far too early to marshal evidence one way or another.

Even though the increases in violent crime tend to be concentrated in neighborhoods that already had substantial crime problems, the violent crime increases appear to be quite common throughout the county. Some local district attorneys are progressive, and some are not. Some local mayors and governors are Republicans, and some are Democrats. Some state legislatures lean left, and some lean right. Political finger pointing at the state, county and city level will not likely be persuasive. Blaming individuals or institutions at the federal level probably will not work either because most crimes are not federal crimes, and federal actions can only have local effects at the margins.

One is left with several conclusions. First, the recent violent crime increases, even if they are not just noise, are dwarfed by the amount of violent crime in the 1990s. We have not returned to the bad old days. Second, the speculative explanations commonly proposed must fit the timing of the recent violent crime increases. Conjectures revolving around the COVID-19 pandemic and pent-up frustrations, at least as usually formulated, do not seem to get it right. Third, explanations based on more passive police practices, real and imagined, coupled with the perceptions of reduced risk among individuals already predisposed toward violence, may have some merit, but the existing data range from weak to nonexistent. It is very difficult to bring facts to bear. Fourth, if one takes the solid black curves in the two graphs at face value, we have been on a time path that is bottoming out. Sadly, this may be about as good as it gets under the existing conditions that affect violent crime. Variation in violent crime over the past few years may be nothing more than a bit of bouncing off the bottom. Fifth, with the passage of time, and the accumulation of better data, we may understand more about what drives violent crime. But we have a long way to go.

Finally, one must always be wary of drawing strong conclusions about crime trends from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) or any of the usual crime data. In particular, a shooting is usually the root cause of a homicide. But whether a shooting actually leads to a death depends a lot on happenstance, such as whether any vital organs are hit, on the quality of medical care, and on how soon that care begins. The quality of medical care for gun-shot wounds has improved dramatically over the past 20 years. That may have reduced the proportion of shooting victims who become homicide victims. At the same time, one has to wonder about a growing lethality in the firearms readily available to shooters. The Saturday night specials of days gone by have been replaced with 9mm semiautomatic Glocks, Colts, Rugers, and Sig Sauers. Shooting victims these days may be more difficult to save. Yet, these countervailing trends, and more, are obscured in conventional crime data. It is very hard to understand the reasons why violent crime goes up or why violent crime goes down.

Abrams, D.S., “COVID and Crime: An Early Empirical Look” (2020) U of Penn, Institute for Law & Economic Research Paper No. 20-49, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3674032 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3674032   Dehkordi, A.H., Alizadeh, M., Derakshan, P., Babazadeh, P., and Jahandideh, A. (2020) “Understanding Epidemic Data and Statistics: A Case Study of COVID-19.” Journal of Medical Virology 92: 868—882.   Dunedin, Z.O., Yan, H.Y., Ince, J., and Rojas, F. (2022) “Black Lives Matter Protests Shift Public Discourse.” PNAS https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2117320119   Francis, M.M., and Wright-Rigeur, L. (2021) “Black Lives Matter in Historical Perspective.” Annual Review of Law and Social Science 17: 441—458   Sorenson, S.B., Sinko, L., and Berk, R.A. (2021) “The Endemic Amid the Pandemic: Seeking Help for Violence Against Women in the Initial Phases of COVID-19.” Journal of Interpersonal Violence: 36 (9-10): 4899—4915.

Working Paper

Street light outages, public safety and crime displacement: evidence from chicago, re-examining the law of crime concentration: between and within-city evidence, what is a mass shooting what can be done.

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Home > Theses, Dissertations, and Senior Projects > Theses and Dissertations > 1696

Theses and Dissertations

Estimating the effect of poverty on violent crime.

Jose Gabriel Ramos

Date of Award

January 2014

Document Type

Degree name.

Master of Science (MS)

Economics & Finance

First Advisor

Prodosh Simlai

I examine the effect of poverty on violent crime in the United States during the years between 2000 and 2012. My analysis contributes to the literature by utilizing state-level poverty rates as the main variable of interest, and directly studying its effect on violent crime rates. I use panel data and a group (state) and time fixed effects estimation method in the study. The results confirm prior research that concludes that poverty does not have a significant effect on violent crime.

Recommended Citation

Ramos, Jose Gabriel, "Estimating The Effect Of Poverty On Violent Crime" (2014). Theses and Dissertations . 1696. https://commons.und.edu/theses/1696

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